The Blue State

What the primaries have helped do for democracy

As sick as we are of this protracted contest, there is one huge positive:

Voter excitement, always up before a presidential election, is pushingregistration through the roof so far this year — with more than 3.5million people rushing to join in the historic balloting, according toan Associated Press survey that offers the first national snapshot.

Figures are up for blacks, women and young people. Rural and city. South and North.

Overall, the AP found that nearly one in 65 adult Americans signedup to vote in just the first three months of the year. And in the 21states that were able to provide comparable data, new registrationshave soared about 64 percent from the same three months in the 2004campaign.

There's definitely nothing wrong with that. 

Now, let's end this thing and face McCain.

Final day: Indiana polling roundup

This is it.  Just about every poll gives Hillary Clinton the lead in Indiana.  It may be close though, as reports of early voting show heavy turnout in the northwest, mostly considered an Obama stronghold.  Ultimately, Clinton will probably win that race.  The question is how close will it be?  Also, which candidate will finish with more delegates from both contests tomorrow?

Suffolk University:

49% - Hillary Clinton
43% - Barack Obama

American Research Group:

53% - Hillary Clinton
45% - Barack Obama

ARG also notes that Barack Obama leads by eight in North Carolina, meaning he is poised to finish the night with more pledged delegates.  However, an Insider Advantage poll shows the race a lot closer in North Carolina.  OK, now back to Indiana.

Zogby:

44% - Barack Obama
42% - Hillary Clinton

The Zogby web site claims they have it right.  However, they acknowledge that undecided voters lean Hillary's direction:

While Obama holds a small edge in Indiana, Clintonappears to hold at least a small advantage among those who are yetundecided. Among those undecided Indiana voters who said they wereleaning toward one candidate or the other, Clinton held an edge. Italso remains unclear what impact, if any, the new Indiana requirementthat voters show identification before casting ballots will have on thecontest.

It appears that even if Obama wins both contests tomorrow (though it is likely they will split), Hillary will stay in it.  This fight will stretch through at least June 3rd.

Host to Hillary: Name one economist that agrees with you

On the issue of the gas tax repeal, she could not name one.  Oh and by the way, did you know that economists are elitist?:

This morning, George Stephanopoulos began his televised interviewwith Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton by asking if she could name asingle economist who supported her plan for a gas-tax suspension.

Mrs. Clinton did not. “I’m not going to put in my lot witheconomists,” she said on the ABC program “This Week.” A few momentslater, she added, “Elite opinion is always on the side of doing thingsthat really disadvantages the vast majority of Americans.”

Or, maybe your proposal just isn't practical.  If worldwide demand is what is driving up oil prices, then increasing demand even more by eliminating the gas tax for a short period of time won't help either.

The world looks elsewhere

With the US dollar on the decline, a recession possibly on the horizon, and our post-9/11 reputation diminished greatly, much of the world is looking elsewhere for leadership.

The latest Newsweek, titled "The Post American World," explores how the world is looking beyond America:

The post-American world is naturally an unsettling prospect forAmericans, but it should not be. This will not be a world defined bythe decline of America but rather the rise of everyone else. It is theresult of a series of positive trends that have been progressing overthe last 20 years, trends that have created an international climate ofunprecedented peace and prosperity.

It's a good read.  I encourage you all to take a look at it.

Just to note, one of the reasons why I support Barack Obama is because I believe heis the one most capable of restoring that sense of worldwideAmericanism.  We need an internationalist in the White House.

Hillary's convention takeover?

Those who have power tend not to relinquish it:

Hillary Clinton's campaign has a secret weapon to build its delegatecount, but her top strategists say privately that any attempt to deployit would require a sharp (and by no means inevitable) shift in thepolitical climate within Democratic circles by the end of this month.

With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party's 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton,her backers could -- when the committee meets at the end of this month-- try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-memberFlorida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would giveClinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according toClinton campaign operatives. The Obama campaign has declined to give anestimate.

Using the Rules and Bylaws Committee to force the seating of twopro-Hillary delegations would provoke a massive outcry from Obamaforces. Such a strategy would, additionally, face at least two othermajor hurdles, and could only be attempted, according to sources in theClinton camp, under specific circumstances:

With the Clinton family, anything is possible.  Though, super delegates should realize that such a move would reward two states that violated the DNC rules -- one of which did not even have Obama's name on the ballot.  It would go against the will of the voters in all the other states, and possibly hurt turnout in November, especially among African-American voters.

Video: Obama explains problem with gas tax holiday

It was nice to watch Tim Russert actually spend some time focusing on real issues this morning, as opposed to asking Barack Obama an endless number of questions about Jeremiah Wright.  During a portion of the full hour on Meet the Press, they discussed the proposed gas tax holiday.  Obama explained that a short-term repeal of the gas tax would only cause demand to go up, meaning that the price would go up anyway and offset any money that consumers save.  And as demand increases, that leads to shortages and long lines.  Also, the gas tax takes money away from highway construction, which would lead to job loss.

Here is Obama:

After Tuesday comes the month-long finale

Following Tuesday's races in North Carolina and Indiana, we will near the end of our primary calendar.  Just six contests remain, which will take place in less than one month.  When we wake up on the morning of June 4th, all the pledged delegates will have been decided, and the super delegates will have to make a decision.

If Hillary survives Indiana in two days, she has an opportunity to win a few more.  Here is a look at the coming primary schedule:

• May 13th: West Virginia (28 pledged delegates and 11 super delegates).  Clinton is ahead there in the polls, even though Obama is the favorite among state party activists.
• May 20th: Kentucky (51 pledged and 9 super delegates) and Oregon (52 pledged and 13 super).  Clinton is poised for a landslide victory in Kentucky.  Meanwhile, in Oregon, Obama has a huge lead among just about all social demographics, including white voters.  In a new Rasmussen poll, he leads Clinton in Oregon 51% to 39%.
• June 1st: Puerto Rico (55 pledged and 8 super).  This race is actually huge.  There are more pledged delegates up for grabs in Puerto Rico than any other contest after North Carolina.  There has not been any polling there since early last month.
• June 3rd: Montana (16 pledged and 9 super) and South Dakota (15 pledged and 8 super).  It is likely that Obama will win there because it is a caucus, stemming from strong support in Missoula at the University of Montana.  In South Dakota, Obama was ahead in the last poll by a comfortable margin.  Also, many of Obama's top advisers used to work for Tom Daschle.  So the campaign has deep roots in that state.

Worst case scenario for Obama, Hillary trounces him in West Virginia, destroys Obama in Kentucky and narrowly loses in Oregon -- giving her the needed momentum to win Puerto Rico.  If she wins Puerto Rico, maybe she could squeak out a win in Montana.  South Dakota will be tougher for her.  Then she could fight on to the convention.

Best case for Obama, he keeps it close in West Virginia, loses in Kentucky but wins handedly in Oregon.  He then wins in Puerto Rico, setting him up to sweep the June 3rd contests, thus giving super delegates little reason to not jump aboard the Obama bandwagon.

Unlike April, when we had to wait and wait for the Pennsylvania contest, there will be elections every week in June (with the exception of the last Tuesday).  I know this has been a long primary season.  But now that we are nearing an end, at least try to enjoy it.

Obama on Meet the Press

While the last two weeks have seemed like one big doom and gloom moment for Barack Obama, NBC announced today that Obama will appear on their Sunday show Meet the Press for the full hour just two days before the vote in Indiana and North Carolina.

If he ever had a chance to turn things around, this is the one!

Obama not gaining ground in Indiana

I hate to be the supplier of bad news for Obama fans, but his road ahead in Indiana is looking as steep as it's ever been.  Rasmussen, one of the most reliable polling firms this campaign season, reports that Clinton has a 5-point lead in Indiana, 46% to Obama's 41%.  In North Carolina, according to Mason-Dixon polling, Obama's double-digit lead has been cut in half.  And in another North Carolina poll, Clinton leads by two.

Back to Indiana, since that is where the action will be on election night.  On the today show this morning, Michelle Obama appeared to plead with the media to forget the whole Jeremiah Wright soap opera:

"We hear time and time again voters are tired of this," Michelle Obama said in an interview the couple gave to NBC's "Today" show.

"They don't want to hear about this division, they want to know whatare we going to do to move beyond these issues," she said. "And whatmade me feel proud of Barack in this situation is that he is trying tomove us as a nation beyond these conversations that divide."

Whether voters are tired of it or not, the reality is that the media is fixated on it.  Instead of questioning Clinton's personal problems (and there are a lot of them), Obama is facing all this questions and is constantly on the defensive.  He has less than five days to try and change what the media is talking about, or else he will lose Indiana.  Right now, all the undecided voters in both races, Indiana and North Carolina, are more likely to second-guess Obama.  The Obama Campaign needs to give those undecided voters a reason to second-guess Clinton.

Like her or not, Clinton is a fighter.  It will also take a fighter to beat her.  Obama needs to get moving!

It's close in Indiana

Give Hillary Clinton the slight edge in Indiana, following her Pennsylvania win and the media's obsession with Reverand Wright.  Here are two new polls.

Public Policy Polling:

50% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

Howey-Gauge:

46% - Hillary Clinton
46% - Barack Obama

With one week to go, Obama is on the verge of losing Indiana.  He needs to campaign hard there.  If he wins both contests (North Carolina and Indiana), the power-players in the Democratic Party will put more pressure on the super delegates to endorse.  If they split, however, Obama is just asking for a long battle into the summer.  Remember, Kentucky and West Virginia, two sure Clinton states, have yet to vote.  For Obama, he has Oregon and South Dakota that will go for him.  Being that neither candidate will pull off a surprise win in any of those states, neither candidate has a reason to drop out.  Indiana is what Obama needs to win to rally the Democratic Party around him.