The Blue State

DNC already joining forces with Obama

Compared to the Republican National Committee's effort to help Clinton in North Carolina, over on the Democratic side the DNC has already made an arrangement with the Obama campaign to unveil a massive 50-state voter registration drive.

Time Magazine has more on the Obama-DNC merger:

The fact that the Obama campaign is moving forward and Clinton isnot at this time reflects certain important realities: Obama’s team ismore confident that he will win the nomination than is Clinton’s — andObama’s campaign has the necessity and luxury of thinking about andplanning for the general election to come.

As part of that preparation, the campaign is thinking about how todivide up roles and responsibilities between the campaign’s Chicagoheadquarters and the DNC in Washington.

The DNC has stood out during this election cycle as the one majorparty entity that has not been raising money like gangbusters, andofficials in both camps hope the joint agreement can allow the DNC totap into Obama’s extraordinary leverage and popularity with donors,particularly after he secures the nomination — assuming he does.

The committee formed under the agreement is still in search of a final name.

Great news!  As the party establishment spends more of its resources forming such a committee, the DNC then becomes more path-dependent on Obama becoming the Democratic nominee.

This race should end in two weeks

If Democratic leaders were smart and understood the damage that Hillary Clinton's candidacy is inflicting among Democratic voters, they would hype up the May 6th contests in North Carolina and Indiana as a do-or-die event for her.  This thing needs to end fast.  According to NBC exit polling data, Hillary Clinton's candidacy is hurting her own party:

One-quarter of Clinton voters would back Mr. McCain while 19 percentsaid they would stay home in November entirely." Of Obama supporters,"67 percent said they would support Mrs. Clinton if she earns the partynod, 17 percent would back the Republican senator and 12 percent wouldnot vote."

This number is up significantly from Ohio, when more voters were open to supporting the other candidate.  In other words, the Democrats would be smart to end this thing fast.  They have two options for May 6th:

• The more drastic option includes encouraging super delegates to support whoever wins more delegates on May 6th.
• Or, the party hierarchy could say that if someone sweeps the May 6th contests then that candidate gets the super delegate support.

I'd go with the second option because it is more practical.  If Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina, Dean, Pelosi and Reid need to convince super delegates to make up their mind one way or another.

Election Thread

I will be at work during the time when all the results come in.  But I will give updates during my breaks.

So, as tonight unfolds, feel free to discuss the effect that this contest will have on Indiana and North Carolina, and whether this likely victory for Clinton will give her a bounce.  Did she exceed expectations?  Does she mathematically have a chance?

It's about Indiana, not Pennsylvania

On the morning of what pundits are hyping up to be the all important Pennsylvania primary, the real test will come on May 6th.  While Hillary has every right to be in the race at this point, her argument for staying in will be greatly diminished if she loses both North Carolina and Indiana.  The two states vote on that same May 6th night.  North Carolina is poised to go for Obama.  The question is who will win Indiana.  Polls show that the race there is incredibly close there, with the slight edge favoring Obama.

It is likely that if Obama wins both May 6th contests, there will be a wave of super delegates going his way starting the morning after.

Obama's last PA ad

For all you undecideds out there -- it takes judgment to be president:

Michael Moore endorses Obama

Fresh off the wires today, filmmaker Michael Moore is endorsing Barack Obama for president:

I want to say a word about the basic decency I have seen in Mr.Obama. Mrs. Clinton continues to throw the Rev. Wright up in his faceas part of her mission to keep stoking the fears of White America.Every time she does this I shout at the TV, "Say it, Obama! Say thatwhen she and her husband were having marital difficulties regardingMonica Lewinsky, who did she and Bill bring to the White House for'spiritual counseling?' THE REVEREND JEREMIAH WRIGHT!"

But no, Obama won't throw that at her. It wouldn't be right. Itwouldn't be decent. She's been through enough hurt. And so he remainssilent and takes the mud she throws in his face.

That's why the crowds who come to see him are so large. That's whyhe'll take us down a more decent path. That's why I would vote for himif Michigan were allowed to have an election.

Full Text

I don't care what anyone says -- in the primaries, this will help him, if anything.

PA polling data -- the day before

Obama is closing in on Hillary fast, but it probably still won't be enough to catch her.  Even Obama himself is already proclaiming Hillary as the likely victor in PA.  Here are a number of polls just one day before the vote.

Quinnipiac:

51% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

Survey USA:

50% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

Survey USA has been the most reliable so far this campaign season.

Public Policy Polling:

49% - Barack Obama
46% - Hillary Clinton

Don't even bother with this one.  PPP has been way off ever since Iowa.  Their polls have indicated for quite some time that Obama is ahead in Pennsylvania, which is contradicted by just about every other poll out there.

Zogby:

48% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

Suffolk University:

52% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

Rasmussen:

49% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

So in summary, if the average of the more reliable polls (Survey USA, Rasmussen and Suffolk University) are 50% Hillary to 44% Obama, then on election day we can expect it to be around 54% Clinton to 46% Obama.  If Hillary gets better than that, like in the 56% mark or higher, she will have a reason to drag this thing on much longer.  If it's closer, look for Democratic Party leaders to rally around Obama, setting up Clinton's do-or-die contest in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th.

It's all about the media's portrayal of Hillary's chances

Heading into the final day of campaigning before the Pennsylvania primary, Hillary Clinton is poised to claim a victory over Barack Obama.  The question is how large of a victory will it be?  And an even larger question than that is how will the media choose to spin that victory?  In other words, if Obama closes within five points, will the media go bananas and declare that Hillary is back in the race, or will they take the logical route and explain that the former First Lady mathematically eliminated herself by not taking full advantage of her last opportunity to substantially diminish Obama's lead among pledged delegates with time running out before all the states have voted?

It's up to you Brian WIlliams, Wolf Blitzer, Chris Matthews, Howard Fineman, Anderson Cooper, Katie Couric, and Keith Olbermann.  If you plan to give us a narrative, give us one based on fact.

Obama closing in on Clinton in PA

The pundits, the reporters, the bloggers -- including myself -- who thought Obama may have hurt himself in the debate a few days ago were all wrong.  In fact, Obama may have won the debate.  According to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in the state of Pennsylvania, taken just yesterday, Obama is closing in on Clinton:

Pennsylvania Democrats -- Taken 4/17 (4/14)
47% - Hillary Clinton (50%)
44% - Barack Obama (41)

What an incredible development!  If the Obama campaign pushes hard this weekend, they may be able to end this race.  DNC Chairman Howard Dean is putting an immense amount of pressure on super delegates to make a decision.  If he wins, it's over.  If it's close, super delegates will still flock to his side.

If Obama did poorly, he picked a bad night

More than 10 million viewers tuned in to watch the Democratic debate last night, making it the most-watched debate this primary season.  Throughout the verbal dual, Obama was constantly on the defensive.  We will need to wait a few days to see whether polls indicate that viewers thought the questioning was unbalanced, or whether they thought Obama just did poorly.

Hopefully it was the former.