The Blue State

Super Delegate switches vote to Obama

Just in:

You heard it here first. Council member and newly elected superdelegateHarry Thomas Jr., initially a supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton,is announcing in minutes that he will cast his vote at the DemocraticNational Convention in Denver for Sen. Barack Obama.

The Obama Campaign had been rumoring this morning that a few Clinton super delegates were going to switch.

Before you get excited

Before you get excited about the news all over the cable networks that Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, take a reality pill.  Public Policy Polling, which conducted the survey, has been way off on just about every poll since the Iowa Caucuses.  Last week in their poll, Obama was ahead by two.  This week, he is up by three, 45% to 42%.  I don't think so!  While the trends show that the Hillary-McCain cross-examination of Obama's bitter comments did not go anywhere, he still trails in just about every other poll.

Obama needs a miracle to win Pennsylvania.  Obama's supporters there had better show up in droves on election day in order to make that happen.

Wave of new polls show Clinton holding PA lead

In just about every poll you look at, with less than one week to go, Obama's chances of winning there are slim to none.  The question is whether he can keep it within ten points.

Rasmussen (4/14):

50% - Hillary Clinton
41% - Barack Obama

Quinnipiac (4/12-13):

50% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

Susquehanna (4/14):

40% - Hillary Clinton
37% - Barack Obama

Survey USA (4/12-14):

54% - Hillary Clinton
40% - Barack Obama

So far this primary season, Survey USA has been the most accurate of all the polls.  Unless Hillary makes a huge strategic blunder, expect her to hold on.  If for some reason Obama did win, it would knock the former First Lady out of the race.

Looking beyond Pennsylvania

Obama supporters have to come to grips with the likelihood that Hillary Clinton will win Pennsylvania rather easily.  We will try to capture as many delegates in that contest as possible.  However, judging from the fact that the media has gone to town with the remarks Obama made regarding bitterness in Pennsylvania, our candidate's up-tick in momentum there has leveled out, if not reversed somewhat.

The campaign would be smart to focus heavily on the May 6th contests in North Carolina and Indiana.  Nationally, Obama leads Clinton 50% to 40% in a Gallup Poll just released today.  As good as that is, what really matters is the polling in the upcoming states.  In North Carolina, Obama has a comfortable lead there.  And Clinton leads Obama by three in Indiana.  If Obama sweeps the May 6th contests, he can make the case to super delegates that they must stand in his favor.  If that happens, this race is over.

Obama has had one month to make the case to Pennsylvania voters.  It looks like, no matter what he does, Obama will come up short.  Let's move on.

Obama: "Shame on her"

Amen!

Clinton said same thing as Obama in '91

Barack Obama has drawn fire over the last few days for attributing poverty as the source behind many social insecurities in this country.  Hillary Clinton flipped out at Obama for having the guts to make such a bold statement.

Though, it turns out that in 1991 Bill Clinton said virtually the same thing:

"The reason (George H. W. Bush's tactic) works so well now is that youhave all these economically insecure white people who are scared todeath," Clinton was quoted saying by the Los Angeles Times in September 1991.

And once again:

"You know, he [Bush] wants to divide us over race. I'm from the South.I understand this. This quota deal they're gonna pull in the nextelection is the same old scam they've been pulling on us for decadeafter decade after decade. When their economic policies fail, when thecountry's coming apart rather than coming together, what do they do?They find the most economically insecure white men and scare the livingdaylights out of them. They know if they can keep us looking at eachother across a racial divide, if I can look at Bobby Rush and think,Bobby wants my job, my promotion, then neither of us can look at GeorgeBush and say, 'What happened to everybody's job? What happened toeverybody's income? What ... have ... you ... done ... to ... our ...country?'"

Funny how the tables can turn in an instant.

I'm actually voting FOR someone this time

I'm probably not the first registered Democrat to admit he held his nose while voting for the last two Democratic presidential nominees.  While Al Gore would make just about the perfect candidate today, back in 2000 he was a polished Washington establishment face.  His views on the environment were green in just about every way.  But throughout that campaign season he received a great deal of money from registered Washington lobbyists.  With George W. Bush's name also on the ballot, I held my nose and cast the first presidential ballot of my young adult life for Al Gore.  In 2004, it was the same deal, except a little worse.  John Kerry voted for the war, and changed his position on just about everything.  Then again, with Bush's name on the ballot, disliking his policies even more than I did in 2000, I voted for the Democratic nominee.

This time around I have a different view about the upcoming presidential election.  For the first time in my life I am actually going to vote for someone, and not because I am trying to prevent a Republican from becoming president.

Barack Obama is a change candidate.  I knew it when I watched his speech at the Convention in 2004.  I knew it when he passed the toughest ethics reform bill in history.  I know it today because he has opposed this awful war from the very beginning -- so when he says he wants to begin rolling back force numbers, I believe him.

But it's also more than that.  From the time he launched his campaign last year, I knew that Barack Obama would be more responsive to the grassroots than any other major Democratic presidential candidate since RFK.  When you make a decision early-on to not accept political action committee money and money from federally registered lobbyist firms, your hands are not tied when you write legislation.  You don't have to appease your friends and destroy your foes.   Politicians are indebted to those that give them money.  In this case, Barack Obama is indebted to ordinary Americans that donated $5, $10 or $50 here and there.

And lastly, within the past few weeks, another element has been added to my respect for Obama.  He is bold.  He does not fear addressing the issues that divide us, and at least try to generate at least some sort of understanding in an effort to bring us together.  Racial insecurities, economic troubles in rural America, our call to action -- Obama is not afraid to talk about this stuff.

For my age group, at least, this election is about a new beginning.  It's about a chance to start over.  It's about a chance to be inspired and answer Obama's call to every American to get involved in their communities and to help rebuild our country for the next generation and the generation after that.  No more Washington money games.  It's our party now.  It's our country.  Let's take it back.

Delegate count updated

With less than two weeks until the Pennsylvania primary, the race to court super delegates continues.  Here is a look at the delegate count according to each major news network, courtesy of Political Wire:

AP: Obama 1,639, Clinton 1,503
CNN: Obama 1,629, Clinton 1,486
NBC: Obama 1,641, Clinton 1,508
ABC: Obama 1,634, Clinton 1,498
CBS: Obama 1,633, Clinton 1,494

And according to the blog MyDD, the delegate count stands at 1,635 for Obama and 1,499 for Clinton.

Candidates position as we enter home stretch in Pennsylvania

Over the last month, Hillary Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania has dwindled from around 20 points to single digits.  The latest Time Magazine poll, just released today, confirms that the Obama surge is happening.  Clinton leads Obama 44% to 38%.

The sudden up-tick in Obama's numbers has Clinton's communications director trying to downplay expectations:

"He is doing everything he can to win in Pennsylvania," Wolfson said."And if he doesn't win, it will be a significant defeat for him."

Regardless of what Wolfson says, Clinton has been in the driver's seat in that state from the very beginning, and it is likely she will hold on.  The demographics favor Hillary so much that Obama would need to make more inroads among female voters in order to pull off an upset.  What will likely happen instead is that unless Obama wins Pennsylvania, this race will drag on at least until the morning of May 7th, one day after the contests in North Carolina and Indiana are held.  The election in Guam a few days earlier on May 3rd only awards nine delegates, and won't be much of a factor.  But if Obama can somehow get within a few points of Clinton in Pennsylvania and then sweep the May 6th contests, we would see a wave of super delegates go Obama's way, and the Clinton campaign could unravel.

In summary, a victory for Clinton in Pennsylvania is not all that it's hyped to be -- unless that victory is 15 points or more (then Obama would have a problem).  But if Obama can lose by just a few points and then win Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th, we will see this thing end fast.

Poll: Clinton barely up in PA

Is was the case with all the other polls today, this new poll indicates that the race in Pennsylvania is tightening up.  Although, Hillary does still lead there:

Public Policy Polling Survey (PA voters, April 7 - 8)
46% - Hillary Clinton
43% - Barack Obama

Obama can put Clinton away with a win there.  That might explain why the Clinton campaign is releasing five new ads in Pennsylvania.