The Blue State

Friday Senate polling data

I might as well put this all into one post.  Believe it or not, the Democrats might have a better chance of winning Arizona than Tennessee.  Yesterday, Bill Clinton was in Arizona stumping for Democrat Jim Pederson.  You can watch the video here.

Here are the polls:

Tennessee Senate Race (Rasmussen)
(R) Bob Corker - 53%
(D) Harold Ford - 45%

Virginia Senate Race (Rasmussen)
(R) George Allen - 49%
(D) James Webb - 49%

Missouri Senate Race (Rasmussen)
(R) Jim Talent - 48%
(D) Claire McCaskill - 49%

Arizona Senate Race (AZD)
(R) Jon Kyl - 45.8%
(D) Jim Pederson - 41.3%

Pennsylvania Senate Race (MUHLC)
(D) Rick Santorum - 43%
(D) Bob Casey - 51%

Again, Clinton was in Arizona yesterday.  The poll was taken a few days before that -- so it should be interesting if that gave Pederson yet another bump.  If it did, then the Democrats might want to think about taking resources out of Ohio and Pennsylvania, and putting them into Arizona.

Montana poll numbers are not up yet.  As soon as they come in, I will put them up.  That race is close as well.

PA-Sen: Santorum is toast, say three new polls

In none of these three polls is Pennsylvania Senate incumbent Rick Santorum even within single digits of his opponent.  Democratic challenger Bob Casey is on the verge of knocking off the third-ranking Republican in the Senate.  Below are the polls -- all of which were taken among "likely voters":

Strategic Vision:

(R) Rick Santorum - 39%
(D) Bob Casey - 49%

Key:

(R) Rick Santorum - 38%
(D) Bob Casey - 53%

Quinnipiac:

(R) Rick Santorum - 42%
(D) Bob Casey - 52%

Since the race is pretty much in the books, we can talk about it in past tense.  This was such a great accomplishment for the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania.  We stayed on message the entire campaign season, exposing Mr. Santorum for what he really was: a rubber stamp for the White House, and another vote to prolong the spending and bloodshed in Iraq.  Most importantly, because of this effort, not just for Casey but for other candidates in Pennsylvania as well, the state is trending Democrat.  We are in solid shape for 2008.

PA-Sen: Santorum trails as campaign enters last throes

The last debate between Senate incumbent Rick Santorum (R-PA) and Democratic challenger Bob Casey came and went.  Much of the heated exchange focused on Iraq.  The two candidates copied the same tune they have been humming throughout the campaign season.  While Casey wanted a change in Iraq, and Santorum preferred to stay the course and defended the civilian leadership in the Pentagon.  Those points were rehashed during the debate:

Casey reiterated his opinion that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should be fired.

"We need new leadership when it comes to Iraq," Casey said.

Santorum defended Rumsfeld, saying, "He follows policy. He doesn't make policy."

This debate ocurred just hours after the two campaigns released their third quarter earnings.  Casey has $3.7 million left, compared to Santorum's $3.6 million.  This is the first time that Casey has bested Santorum in the money race.

The latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Casey leading Santorum:

Pennsylvania Senate Race

(R) Rick Santorum - 41%

(D) Bob Casey - 46%

Meanwhile, social conservatives are scrambling to raise money to save Santorum as this campaign enters its last throes (sorry, had to use that wording).

9/4/06: Clips with your Labor Day breakfast

Happy Labor Day everyone.  Here are the latest buzz-worthy political clips on the internet.

First Up: Pennsylvania Senator Santorum Spends One Month Each Year in His Pennsylvania Home.  In a debate on NBC's Meet the Press between, the two Senate candidates from Pennsylvania, Republican Rick Santorum and Democrat Bob Casey, Mr. Santorum exposed himself to the voters of his state.  When pressured by moderator Tim Russert, Santorum admitted that he spends only one month out of each year in his Pennsylvania home.  Santorum's real home is in Virginia.

Second in Line: Casey Takes It to Santorum.  In that same NBC debate between Casey and Santorum, Casey revealed the fact that Santorum has only voted against the President 2% of the time.

Sorry there are a shortage of videos today.  More tomorrow.

PA-Sen: Casey out in front as Santorum begins bus tour

New poll in from Pennsylvania, and Democrat Bob Casey leads Republican incumbent Rick Santorum in the race for U.S. Senate:

Bob Casey: 45%
Rick Santorum: 39%

(Poll conducted between July 31st and August 3rd among 550 registered voters from Pennsylvania.)

This comes just as Rick Santorum, knowing his political future is in trouble, announced that he is launching a statewide bus tour.

On the issue of energy independence, the AP asked the two candidates to explain their views.  As you can see below, Santorum and Casey are from two different worlds:

AP: Please explain whether you think global warming is a problem andif so, if you think the problem is manmade? What, if anything, shouldbe done?

SANTORUM: While the EPA acknowledges that a warming trend of aboutone degree Fahrenheit has been recorded since the late 19th century,scientists have not decisively concluded the cause of this trend. Ibelieve we must be cautious in reacting to this issue because makingdrastic public policy changes could pose serious consequences to oureconomy and our quality of life. This is why I am opposed to radicalapproaches like the Kyoto Protocol, which would unfairly placeinternational regulations on our nation, killing our manufacturingsector that is so vital to areas like western Pennsylvania, whileallowing nations like China to pollute our environment withoutrecourse. Last year, I supported an amendment offered by Sen. ChuckHagel of Nebraska that called for promoting and adopting technologiesthat reduce greenhouse gas emissions by providing loan guarantees toprojects that employ advanced climate technologies. This is a reasonedapproach that doesn't squelch job creation but balances it withenvironmental concerns.

CASEY: Yes. We must take mandatory steps to slow, stop, and reduceglobal warming pollution. Waiting to do so will only make the problemworse and the solution more costly. Rick Santorum thinks that it doesnot exist.

Rick Santorum's long-winded answer is not going to cut it in today's political environment.  Gas prices are near record highs, and the Middle East war and hurricane threats in the gulf are putting our energy lifeline in danger.  The longer we have Senators like Rick Santorum that continue to question the scientific consensus, the longer we will continue to believe the false idea that the solution is to drill our way out of this mess.

As a strong supporter of Bob Casey, I am nervous about the upcoming three months of campaigning because the big GOP donors will be heading into Pennsylvania to shake things up.  The only way we can kick the Republicans out of the majority in the Senate is if we take the initiative and get involved.  If you can contribute or volunteer for the Casey Campaign, you will help steer America towards that goal.

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Other sites blogging about this issue: MyDD, Meetup.com, Berkeley Bubble, 2 Political Junkies, The Huffington Post, Caffeinated Politics, Political Wire.

Why half the country still buys WMD argument

All of the WMD hype earlier this summer by Republican Senator Rick Santorum has seemed to have paid off.  In a new Harris Poll, the number of Americans that still think Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction at the same time the U.S. invaded has substantially increased over the last few months:

Despite being widely reported in the media that the U.S. and other countrieshave not found any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, surprisingly; more U.S.adults (50%) think that Iraq had such weapons when the U.S. invaded Iraq. Thisis an increase from 36 percent in February 2005.

So why the sudden increase?  Credit U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum.  In June, Santorum claimed that such weapons have recently been found in Iraq:

"We have found weapons of mass destruction  in Iraq, chemical weapons," Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., said in a quickly called press conference late Wednesday afternoon.

Readingfrom a declassified portion of a report by the National GroundIntelligence Center, a Defense Department intelligence unit, Santorumsaid: "Since 2003, coalition forces have recovered approximately 500weapons munitions which contain degraded mustard or sarin nerve agent.Despite many efforts to locate and destroy Iraq's pre-Gulf War chemicalmunitions, filled and unfilled pre-Gulf War chemical munitions areassessed to still exist."

Of course, most of us would agree that "possessing weapons of mass destruction" means actually having the capacity to cause mass destruction.  But the recovered munitions that Santorum referred to were weapons more than 20 years old, and therefore unusable in a military situation.

According to David Kay, President Bush's good buddy whose team searched for such weapons in Iraq after the '03 invasion, the munitions that Santorum was ranting about on the news were "less toxic than most things that Americans have under their kitchen sink at this point."

The cable news channels chose to spend time covering Santorum's lie, and ignored David Kay's rebuttal.  So now half the country believes the wild-eyed notion that Saddam was fully loaded when America invaded.

Yesterday on CNN, commentator Jack Cafferty analyzed the WMD notion that won't die.  The video is below:

Casey advances to face Santorum, and GOP attacks are coming

Out of Pennsylvania, it is official.  Bob Casey will be the one to square off against Republican Senate incumbent Rick Santorum.  Casey won Tuesday's primary in a landslide with around 85% of the vote.  Almost immediately after Casey's victory was announced, the Republican attack machine began its frontal assault on the Democratic challenger:

"Come out from behind the name and stand before the voters ofPennsylvania and talk about the issues important to the people of thisstate," Santorum told supporters at his campaign headquarters justoutside Pittsburgh.

CBS News reported last month that Rick Santorum has a 2-to-1 fund-raising advantage on Bob Casey, with more than $9 million on-hand.

Please, if possible, give all the support that you can to the Casey Campaign.  The Republicans know that if Santorum goes down, many of the other GOP incumbents across the country will go down too, giving the Senate majority to the Democrats.  This is the one "domino effect" that might actually work!

Santorum has a whole lot of Casey to worry about

Look out Rick Santorum!  The right-wing Republican incumbent Senator from Pennsylvania has a headache to deal with it, and the name of that headache is Bob Casey.  The current state treasurer-turned-Democratic Senate challenger has raised a whopping $2.6 million over the last three months in his bid to unseat Santorum, and put the Democrats one step closer to taking back the Senate.

So how significant is Casey's $2.6 million in the first quarter of 2006?  Very significant.  In 2002, Ron Klink, Santorum's previous Democratic challenger, raised only $3.6 million during the entire campaign.  So for Casey, or any Democrat for that matter, to raise $2.6 million in only three months is almost unheard of.  The only Democrat to raise more money so far in 2006 is Hillary Clinton -- but she is obviously in her own league.

The latest Quinnipiac University poll has Casey with a 48% to 37% lead over Rick Santorum.

(Click here to show your support for Bob Casey's Senate Campaign)