The Blue State

NJ-Sen: Momentum going Menendez's way

The New Jersey Senate race is neck and neck.  With less than four weeks to go, the Democrats may have caught a break.  In the latest Quinnipiac poll that was just released, Menendez leads Kean Jr by four points:

New Jersey U.S. Senate race

(D) Bob Menendez - 49%
(R) Thomas Kean Jr. - 45%

This is the only Democratic Senate seat in any kind of jeopardy.  The fact that it is even competitive is forcing the Democrats to divert resources.  Chuck Todd of the National Journal writes:

Menendez may still win, but a good $5 million of national Democraticresources will be drained to pull him over the finish line. That'smoney the party could have used in places like Arizona or Virginia .

Remember, if the Democrats come up short in New Jersey, they must win in Virginia, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee -- the other toss-up states -- in order to take back Senate majority.  But with a victory in New Jersey, they can afford to lose one of those other races.

The latest momentum shift in favor of Bob Menendez was spearheaded by his campaign's focus on Iraq.  Menendez stayed on message today by holding a news conference on Iraq, marking the four-year anniversary of the Senate giving President Bush military authorization to go to war.  Menendez favors the strategy of bringing all troops home within a year.  Illinois Senator and possible 2008 presidential candidate Barack Obama joined Menendez on the campaign trail today to help keep the momentum going.

Money-wise, the Republican Party is in a wait-and-see mode with Thomas Kean Jr., and will determine within the next few days whether to divert resources away from other races in order to make a push for that Senate seat.  Today, to help reverse the negative momentum and help court swing voters, Kean called on Speaker Hastert to resign over his role in covering up the Foley emails.  Although, analysts are unsure whether this will have any impact on the race at all.

Senate majority within reach

I don't want to over-hype this thing.  But those in "generation Y" know where I am coming from.

Ever since the political boom that followed the 2000 election and September 11th that caused millions of youth to suddenly take interest in politics, many new progressives like myself don't even know what it is like to see the Democrats win anything.  Imagine that.  So for our side to be so close to winning this November is enough to make us younger people hardly contain ourselves!  It doesn't mean we predict victory, or that we think we will take back majority in any chamber of Congress at all.  But the enthusiasm is at an all-time high.

Last week, I put together a chart of what the Democrats need to do to win the Senate.  I said that if they win eight of the following ten races -- New Jersey, Minnesota, Ohio, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Montana, Tennessee, Missouri, Virginia and Arizona -- then they will capture Senate majority.

Today's Rasmussen Reports U.S. Senate tracker is giving us every reasonto think that the Democrats are just six good weeks of campaigning awayfrom doing it.  Instead of it coming down to ten races, it will come down to only five. If the Democrats win three out of the following five races, then the Senate is theirs.  Here are the races:

• Missouri: Rasmussen puts Democrat McCaskill ahead of GOP Talent by 3%
• Tennessee: SurveyUSA puts Democrat Ford ahead of GOP Corker by 3%
• New Jersey: Quinnipiac puts GOP Kean ahead of Democrat Menendez by 2%
• Virginia: SurveyUSA puts GOP Allen ahead of Democrat Webb by 3%
• Arizona: SurveyUSA puts GOP Kyl ahead of Democrat Pederson by 5%

So two of those five races are now in our favor.  All we need now is one more: New Jersey, Virginia or Arizona -- that is what the election will come down to.  With New Jersey being a blue state and in the Northeast, that is probably our best bet.

Again, I am not getting my hopes up.  Instead, "enthusiastic" is a better word to describe my thoughts right now.  Over the next 49 days, we can work hard to focus our efforts on Arizona, Virginia and New Jersey.  Call into local radio shows, write letters to the local newspapers, comment on local blogs, and help these campaigns.  It's really within our grasp.

This is our last chance to be in a position to hold the Bush presidency accountable before he leaves office.  Many other blogs are focusing on the House.  My attention will be squared almost entirely at the Senate.  Chuck Schumer, Chairman of the DSCC, has done a fine job to keep these races competitive.  Now let's do our part.

NJ-Sen: Video) Menendez exposes GOP's weak cargo security bill

This is how to be strong on Defense!

New Jersey Democratic Senator Bob Menendez gave a very important speech on the Senate floor today that exposed the clear differences between where the two parties stand on port security.  Republican Senator Norm Coleman introduced a bill that does absolutely nothing to change the fact that only 5% of all cargo that enters the United States is inspected.  The bill calls for 5% of the cargo to be "screened."  Menendez explained the fundamental difference between "screening" cargo and "scanning" cargo.  Also, Menendez asked why we are waiting for the cargo to reach U.S. soil before being inspected? 

Right before the election, the GOP are trying to introduce a bunch of national security bills for political reasons even though none of them, including this one, will change the fact that the Republican Senate majority has dropped the ball on port security.  Here is part of Senator Bob Menendez's (D-NJ) speech on the floor:

Click to watch video clip << (YouTube)

--- Partial Transcript ---

MENENDEZ: "If we adopt the Gentleman from Minnesota's amendment, we're still saying, 'Okay, five percent is something we're willing to live with.'  At the end of the day we don't move to a plan of a hundred percent scanning of the nation's cargo."

"...It is very important to understand that when we keep saying 'screen' -- well, screen means looking at a manifest cargo...put(ing) it into a mathematical equation that says, 'Alright, let's look at this five percent of cargo.'  But that's not scanning one-hundred percent of what comes into the nation.  Let America not be confused by that."

"...also, this is about scanning it abroad.  When we wait until it comes into a port of the United States, if it has a nuclear device in it, it's a little late...We need to be doing that scanning abroad."

Leaders like Bob Menendez, who actually think through the problem pragmatically in order to find a solution, are the kinds of individuals we need in positions of power keeping the American people safe.  No offense to NJ Republican Senate candidate Thomas Kean Jr.  But I think Bob Menendez is proving quite clearly why he is smart, competent, nuanced, analytical, and deserves reelection.