The Blue State

Opinion: John Edwards Wins Democratic Debate

When you say, "Look how great it was during the 90s," and then refuse to release your records from that time, you cannot expect to get off easy.  On immigration, on Iraq, Iran and Social Security, both John Edwards and Barack Obama finally took a stand.  As I write this, many of the pundits are writing that Obama won the debate.  I would say that overall John Edwards got the edge -- although barely.  He was much more forceful, and came across as the more charismatic one.  Obama was strong as well, and had a moment when he physically turned towards Clinton and accused her of doublespeak.  Both Edwards and Obama were very strong.  Hillary Clinton played rope-a-dope, and survived only because of how far ahead she is in the polls.

Here's my debate rankings:

1. John Edwards: The line directed at Hillary, "We should be in tell the truth mode," pretty much summed up how Edwards confronted Hillary without hesitation.
2. Barack Obama: Close, but not first place.  Took Hillary to task on Social Security, the former First Lady's double-talk on immigration and schooled her on Iran.
3. Dennis Kucinich: As one commenter on this site wrote, if Barack Obama took the positions that Kurinich took in this debate (with the exception of the UFO answer), he would be winning in the polls.
4. Hillary Clinton: Clearly on the defensive the entire time.  Not an implosion.  But her Washington establishment roots and history of lying was exposed.
5. Chris Dodd: Much stronger than his other debate performances -- but that's not really saying much.
6. Joe Biden: Nothing doing there.
7. Bill Richardson: Not really impressive at all.  He defended Hillary Clinton, which was not smart because he needed to create a distinction with her.

One more note.  You can thank Hillary Clinton and all the other Senators who voted for the Iran bill for the recent spike in oil.

LIVE BLOG: THE DEMOCRATIC DEBATE

Welcome to The Blue State's coverage of the Halloween week Democratic debate from Philadelphia, which runs two hours.  We are experiencing temporary difficulties with our chat window, and do apologize.  As a last ditch effort, I will live blog it.  Just keep pressing refresh for updates.  Feel free to comment as well:

• And so concludes our live blog.  Sorry again about the chat window not working.  But we made the most out of it.  We will definitely fix those technical difficulties beforehand next time.  SO WHO WON THE DEBATE?
• 11:02: Barack Obama will be Mitt Romney for Halloween.
• 10:58: Why is Russert asking if there is life on other planets?
• 10:57: Kucinich says he saw a UFO (No joke!)
• 10:55: Obama and Edwards are double-teaming Hillary on the former First Lady's answer about drivers licenses for illegal immigrants.
• 10:50: Obama on air travel: "This is a problem that has been building for a long time" ever since deregulation took place.  "Anyone that has been flying commercial has known that service has gone down."
• 10:47: Obama says the reimbursement systemz for Medicaid and Medicare are not working properly.
• 10:40: Pretty much every candidate feels that children need to go to school longer.  Edwards proposed that children's health care should be free.
• 10:33: KUCINICH: It is time for the Democrats to move on the issue of impeachment.
• 10:29: OBAMA: "We've got a tax code" filled "with corporate loopholes."
• 10:22: The moderators are now focusing almost entirely on domestic issues.  Each of the candidates are given 30 seconds.
• 10:18: Edwards explained that America can be patriotic about other things in America besides war.
• 10:17: Edwards says he would use the arm of the Justice Department to investigate price-gouging on the part of oil companies.
• 10:12: They are on their second of two commercial breaks.
• 10:11: Obama says he is not fearful of Mitt Romney's swift boating of Obama's name.
• 10:09: Clinton claims there is little difference between herself and Obama on Social Security.  However, there actually is a difference.  Obama wants to raise the Social Security tax cap from $97,000 to $200,000.
• 10:07: Obama accuses Clinton is giving convoluted answers on Social Security.  OBAMA: "I am not fearful to have a debate about this (social security) with Rudolph Giuliani."
• 10:01: Biden is slamming Giuliani, saying that he is not qualified to be president.  As far as what Giuliani ever talkes about, it's always "a noun, a verb and 9/11."
• 9:59: Edwards again was strong, saying that we are not going to look our children in the eye and hand this mess over to them.
• 9:51: Edwards had a few great lines -- confronting Clinton on her defense industry connections.  Furthermore, Edwards courageously said that the 2008 race isn't about any of them.  It is about the next generation of children being better off than their parents.  Excellent!
• 9:49: I just got back into the room as Obama laid the smack down on Hillary for not releasing records, and prolonging the secrecy of the Bush Administration.  And then now Edwards is laying into her.  Edwards says that if you want the status quo, then vote for Clinton.
• 9:39: Commercial intermission.  I'm taking a quick break.
• 9:38: CLINTON: "I stand for ending the war in Iraq, and bringing our troops home."  (That's spin.)
• 9:36: EDWARDS: "We should be in tell the truth mode."  Edwards is really slamming Clinton!
• 9:34: CLINTON: "We've got to get the Iraqi government to understand its obligations, because there is no military solution."
• 9:31: Kucinich calls for the US to fully participate in the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
• 9:30: Richardson wants an international agreement that we use diplomacy first.  RICHARDSON: "I went head-to-head with Saddam Hussein. ...I've done it (diplomacy)."
• 9:28: Chris Dodd says Pakistan more dangerous than Iran, especially if Pakistan falls.
• 9:26: BIDEN: "President's make wise decisions" based on "the situation they find themselves in the world."
• 9:24: CLINTON: "I intend to do everything I can to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb."  She was then challenged by Russert.
• 9:23: KUCINICH: "We need to reject" war against Iran.  "There is no basis for it whatsoever....When you say all options are on the table, you are licensing President Bush." (Excellent, Kucinich!!!)
• 9:21: RICHARDSON: "I am the only one up on this stage that has negotiated with a foreign country."  Kucinich interrupted in response, "That's not true."
• 9:19: Edwards slamming Clinton, asking, "Has anyone read this thing?" -- pertaining to the Iran vote.
• 9:18: Clinton is defending her Iran vote, saying that it gives Bush "carrots and sticks" to confront Iran.
• 9:18: CLINTON: "We will not permit him (Bush) to go take offensive action against Iran."
• 9:16: OBAMA: "This kind of resolution (Iran war resolution) sends the wrong message" to the world.
• 9:15: BIDEN: The Administration's actions have "driven underground every moderate in Afghanistan and Pakistan."

Obama wins straw poll at Take Back America conference

Here are the results of the straw poll, sponsored by Politico.com and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, and taken by 727 attendees at the Take Back America conference:

TAKE BACK AMERICA STRAW POLL
Barack Obama - 29%
John Edwards - 26%
Hillary Clinton - 17%
Bill Richardson  - 9%
Al Gore - 8% (Write-In)
Dennis Kucinich - 5%
Chris Dodd - 1%
Mike Gravel - 1%
Joe Biden - 1%

Opinion: Richardson wins New Hampshire debate

For those of you whose eyes were glued to the television for two hours, you witnessed a much more aggressive, combative and up-front debate than the first one two months ago.  In our live chat during the debate, our visitors had a wide variety of views about who won.  But we did reach a consensus about a few things.

• Chris Dodd did not help himself out at all.
• Dennis Kucinich was predictable, but did not tell us anything new.
• Hillary was Hillary.
• Mike Gravel thought outside the box, but didn't establish himself as presidential material.
• Wolf Blitzer's questions were much more entertaining than Chris Dodd's answers.

Overall, even though some of you may disagree, we thought that the upper second-tier candidates stood out -- particularly Bill Richardson and Joe Biden.

Biden, the U.S. Senator from Delaware, explained his unpopular decision to support the President's Iraq funding bill that did not include a timetable.  He did it by stating that practically speaking, the Senate needs 67 votes.  Until we get those 67 votes, when non-legislators like John Edwards tell you that the Senate isn't doing its job, they are spinning the truth.  Agree with what Biden said or not, he did come across as extremely practical on foreign policy issues.  That will give his campaign more life as we head into the summer months.

Richardson started off very slow.  But as the Brody File agrees, he grew stronger as the debate went on.  He took a principled stance on the Darfur issue -- saying that we should boycott the Summer Olympics in 2008 if China refused to get involved and pressure the Sudanese government.  He was strong on energy and all other foreign policy-related matters.  By the end of the debate, it was clear that Richardson was the most experienced.  The fact that Clinton kept applauding Richardson's work in her husband's administration really added legitimacy to his excellent resume.  On paper, he is clearly the most qualified to be president.  Tonight, he told us why.  He was very effective.  He won the debate.

John Edwards came in a close third.  On the issue of Iraq, he held Clinton and Obama's feet to the fire:

"Others were quiet. They went quietly to the floor of the Senate, castthe right vote. But there is a difference between leadership andlegislating," Edwards said.

Both Clinton and Obama voted against the bill - which passed - but without making a strong case against the legislation.

"I think it's obvious who I'm talking about," Edwards said.

That was one of the many excerpts where Edwards blamed people like Clinton and Biden for not condemning their own war vote in 2002.

As this column is being written immediately after the debate, this is less thorough.  Expect more columns about the debate in the coming days.

Our editorial board has put together rankings for how each candidate did tonight:

1. Bill Richardson
2. Joe Biden
3. John Edwards
4. Barack Obama
5. Hillary Clinton
6. Dennis Kucinich
7. Mike Gravel
8. Chris Dodd

Feel free to put in your ten cents in the comment box.

(Video) Kucinich to file articles of impeachment against Cheney

Bless the guy for trying.  But is he really the person we want filing articles of impeachment?  Dennis Kucinich sent a letter to his Congressional colleagues yesterday informing them of the decision:

Dear Colleague:

This week I intend to introduce Articles of Impeachment with respectto the conduct of Vice President Cheney. Please have your staff contactmy office . . . if you would like to receive a confidential copy of thedocument prior to its introduction in the House.

Sincerely,

/s/

Dennis J. Kucinich

Member of Congress

Below is a video of Kucinich's call for Cheney's impeachment.  Is it just me, or is he about 99% more subdued than normal?:

Maybe people would take him seriously if he actually spent the entire video laying out, issue by issue, the legal grounds for impeaching Dick Cheney -- because there certainly is a good case.

Even though the Virginia Tech school shootings will delay Kucinich's impeachment effort to next week, his presidential campaign is wasting no time making the case on blogs.  A staff member from the Kucinich for President team commented on the blog of Michael Stickings -- who I have known for about one year -- and assured everyone that Kucinich is serious about this.

All talk at the first Democratic presidential forum

I was going to post a few videos of the first Democratic presidential forum, which took place in Nevada.  In the end, there was nothing to report.  The session had a different format that I had previously thought.  Instead of the candidates debating one another, moderator George Stephanopoulos interviewed each of them one at a time.  The candidates were given a two-minute opening statement (which almost no one except Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich kept under two and a half minutes), a few softball questions and a closing statement.  The candidates went for applause, not substance.

There was not a lot of new material.  However, Hillary Clinton did call for the government to become less dependent on contractors.  Joe Biden did the best job of anyone when it came to explaining his Iraq exit strategy without watering himself down in meaningless rhetoric.  The audience was very quiet when he spoke about Iraq, but mainly because what he said about de-centralizing the government had a great amount of depth. 

Tom Vilsack clearly had the edge on health care.  Even though he spoke in policy wonkish language, he got a huge ovation after he finished outlining the complexity of the health care issue because the audience appreciated his thoroughness.  He explained that you cannot have universal health care without reforming the entire system on an administrative level.

Bill Richardson, who is by far the most experienced on foreign affairs, did not impress many.  In fact, he had a 1988 Bill Clinton moment.  At the end of his lengthy introduction, the audience laughed when he told them that he had one more topic to discuss before ceasing what seemed like his never-ending chatter.  Although, Richardson was stronger in his closing remark.  The New Mexico Governor touted his foreign policy record, which made the lesser experienced candidates like Edwards and Kucinich look less credible when giving their foreign policy positions.

Without making this a very lengthy post, if I had to rank how each candidate did in the debate in terms of their effectiveness in helping themselves in Nevada, I would say that Tom Vilsack won the debate.  Here are the rest:

1. Tom Vilsack
2. Hillary Clinton
3. Joe Biden
4. John Edwards
5. Chris Dodd
6. Bill Richardson
7. Dennis Kucinich
8. Mike Gravel

Again, it is still early.  The first REAL debate will be in just a few weeks.  All the candidates, including Barack Obama, will be present.

Zogby Poll: Obama leads in NH

Today, Zogby International released a poll that was conducted among New Hampshire Democrats between January 15 - 17.  Barack Obama leads the field, with Clinton and Edwards close behind:

New Hampshire Poll
Barack Obama - 23%
Hillary Clinton - 19%
John Edwards - 19%
John Kerry - 5%
Wesley Clark - 3%
Joe Biden - 3%
Dennis Kucinich - 1%
Bill Richardson - 1%
Tom Vilsack - 1%
Not Sure - 22%

That poll is definitely not a surprise.  New Hampshire voters, no matter what party they are, like to vote for the Washington outsider.  Therefore, the fact that Clinton is currently behind is fairly reasonable.  Also, Edwards trails as well because he is more popular among South-to-Midwest Democrats.  In 2004, the only primary Edwards won was South Carolina.  He currently leads in Iowa, and has notably strong local support among hotel workers and community politicians in Nevada, the other early voting state.

Still, regardless of her Washington establishment status, Clinton must do better in New Hampshire if she has any shot of winning the nomination.  Putting it simply, the Democrats' primary schedule is not made for her.  She is more popular in the traditionally blue coastal states like New York, Connecticut and California -- none of which vote until later in the primary season.  New Hampshire went red in 2000, therefore cannot be included in that category.  Still, it is a northern state.  Voters in Iowa don't like her.  She might be perceived as 'too east coast' for Nevada.  The chances of her winning in South Carolina are even slimmer.  Clinton needs to make the top-two in Iowa and Nevada, and then win in New Hampshire -- keeping her alive for the bluer primary states that come later.

For Edwards, Iowa is really make or break.  He has been campaigning there since 2004, and knows the terrain better than anyone.  A victory there would give him the extra media buzz to possibly take Nevada just three days later.  No one thinks Edwards can win New Hampshire.  But if he finishes in the top-two, he will have put himself in great shape to win South Carolina, like he did in '04.  However, if Edwards cannot win Iowa, he will have a difficult time getting attention in the final days before the Nevada caucus.  And remember, the primary schedule is red-heavy in the beginning two weeks.  If after South Carolina he does not have more than two victories already, then you can kiss his chances good-bye.

As far as the other candidates go, they will need to find a way to take news time away from the big-three.  Joe Biden is suited to finish well in South Carolina.   He has a lot of support down there.  Bill Richardson, geographically speaking, could make a strong showing in Nevada.  Tom Vilsack will have to win Iowa, where he is Governor, in order to have any shot.  Lastly, if Kerry did run, it would be like watching a train-wreck.  He would have little shot in any state except for maybe New Hampshire.

Right now, Barack Obama definitely has the momentum.  Although, Hillary Clinton is expected to make an announcement either next week or the week after, which could shake things up a bit.

Weekly '08 Roundup: Kucinich to run

Hillary says she will wait until the first part of January before making an announcement.  Obama will announce no later than mid-January.  Evan Bayh and Tom Vilsack are already in it.  But just when you thought that eleven possible Democratic candidates were enough, another individual threw his name into the hat yesterday.  U.S. Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) announced that he will run in 2008 because he believes his party has done a poor job challenging the President to get troops out of Iraq:

The liberal, anti-war Ohio congressman said he was inspired to runbecause he disagrees with the way some of his fellow Democrats arehandling the war, including approval of a proposal to spend $160billion more on the conflict.

"Democrats were swept into power on Nov. 7 because of widespreadvoter discontent with the war in Iraq," said Kucinich, 60. "Instead ofheeding those concerns and responding with a strong and immediatechange in policies and direction, the Democratic congressionalleadership seems inclined to continue funding the perpetuation of thewar."

His candidacy might have some initial appeal -- that is if he were running against Bush.  But when the reality sets in that George W. Bush is not running for reelection, progressive voters might be looking for a fresh face -- which is why Evan Bayh and Barack Obama could have a lot of appeal.

Speaking of Evan Bayh (D-IN), his recent New Hampshire visit was overlooked by the mainstream media because Obama gave a big speech there around the same time.  But that didn't stop Bayh from telling New Hampshire voters that his number top issues in 2008 will be global warming and energy independence.  He says those issues have bipartisan appeal.  The Indy Star reported on his trip:

"I'd begin with this energy issue, includingglobal warming, because it affects so many important things and becausethere's some common ground there," he said.

Bayhwas hosted by Democratic state senators from Keene and Cornish onSunday, after speaking at a reception in Manchester on Saturday night.

Bayhhas promoted himself as a moderate who can work with Republicans. Hesaid he expected the new Democratic majorities in Congress would makefederal funding for stem cell research one of its their top prioritieswhen it convenes in January.

Back to Obama's New Hampshire trip.  Salon.com reported that the "largest crowd in modern New Hampshire history" saw his speech on Sunday afternoon.

Without further adeiu, here are the weekly rankings for each of the Democratic hopefuls.  Dennis Kucinich's name has been added to the list, impacting some of the candidates (Remember, these are rankings based on a political science student's take on who has the best odds, as of now, of winning the Democratic nomination.  This is not who I want to win.  It is based on who I think has the upper hand on fundraising, appeal in the early primary states, a low unfavorable rating, and the best campaign team.).

1. Hillary Rodham-Clinton - 24%
2. Barack Obama - 19%
3. John Edwards - 15%
4. Al Gore - 14%
5. Evan Bayh - 8%
6. Wesley Clark - 7%
7. Bill Richardson - 4%
8. Tom Vilsack - 3%
9. Joe Biden - 2%
10. Dennis Kucinich - 2%
11. John Kerry - 1%
12. Chris Dodd - 1%

(last week's results)
Up a few points is Barack Obama.  I was waiting to see what type of a reception he got in New Hampshire.  Since the officials up there said it surpassed everything they had predicted, I am giving him an edge of four points on Edwards now, who seems to have hit a brick wall.  The former North Carolina Senator's media attention is way down.  The media is branding this as a match-up between Clinton and Obama.  If Gore gets in the race at the end of the summer, that may destroy any slim chance that Edwards might have.  For every day that Obama or Clinton spends in Iowa, Nevada or New Hampshire, John and Elizabeth will need to spend double the time campaigning in those places.  Unless either John or Elizabeth write another book soon, their media honeymoon might be over.

Also, if it weren't for the fact that there will be major hearings on Iraq in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when the Democrats take back Congress, then I would put Joe Biden at the very bottom of the list.  But those hearings will give him a lot of press coverage, since he is the Chairman of that committee.  Still, I see the likelihood of Biden getting nominated as less than Bill Richardson or Wesley Clark.