Despite taking second place in the New Hampshire primary, Barack Obama has picked up a huge endorsement from the Culinary Workers Union of Nevada; the site of the .
The union, which boasts a membership of more than 60,000, is seen as akey endorsement in Nevada, a state where there are less than 500,000registered Democrats in the whole state and certainly not all come outfor caucuses.
This could be enough to push Obama over the top in Nevada; a state where he was trailing Clinton by almost 20 points only a month ago. Nevada's Caucuses are scheduled for January 19th, with the South Carolina Primary following a week later.
At midnight Today, residents in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location New Hampshire casted the first ballots of the New Hampshire Primary. Although only 46 votes were cast, (23 for each party,) the results are .
Barrack Obama 16 Hillary Clinton 3 John Edwards 3 Bill Richardson 1
Although it's doubtful the final results will be as extreme as this, it shows Obama as the overall favorite in New Hampshire with Clinton and Edwards trailing.
With the New Hampshire Primary only hours away, new polling data from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA show Obama now leading Clinton in the South Carolina Primary.
These polls are the only two taken since Obama's victory in Iowa last week. Here's a look at .
Rasmussen 12/16 Clinton-33 Edwards-17 Obama-33
Rasmussen 1/6 Clinton-30 Edwards-14 Obama-42
SurveyUSA 12/17-18 Clinton-41 Edwards-17 Obama-39
SurveyUSA 1/4-6 Clinton-30 Edwards-16 Obama-50
As you can see, the polls show a massive jump for Obama, with the extra support coming from Hillary's camp (SurveyUSA) or from Second Tier Candidates asking their supporters to back Obama (Rasmussen.)
Recent reports from online traders have rated Obama's likelihood of winning the New Hampshire Primary at an overwhelming .
Odds that the 46-year-old Illinois senator will prevail intomorrow's vote jumped after he won last week's Iowa Democraticcaucuses, while wagers on New YorkSenator Hillary Clinton, thethird-placed finisher in Iowa, tumbled. Online traders say Clinton,60, has an 8.7 percent chance of winning in New Hampshire,according to futures contracts at Intrade, a unit of Dublin-basedTrade Exchange Network Co. Bettors give former North CarolinaSenator John Edwards, who placed second in Iowa, only a 0.3 percentchance of victory in New Hampshire.
Of course, there is still a long road ahead to Super Tuesday, and although the most recent show Obama' surge in the Primary, he is still trailing in Nevada and South Carolina. (Granted, the current polls for those states are from a month ago and do not take the current "surge" into account.
At this time, I would like to coin the term "O-mentum." Add it to your dictionary, because I plan to use it a lot in the coming weeks.
But remember; these polls only count if people get out to vote tomorrow. So if you're in New Hampshire,GO VOTE!
Whenever anyone even brings up the idea of election fraud in 2004, the common response is that Bush won Ohio handedly in the statewide recount. More than two years have passed since the election and the recount that followed. Now, for the first time, two poll workers have been the 2004 Ohio recount:
Two election workers wereconvicted Wednesday of rigging a recount of the 2004 presidentialelection to avoid a more thorough review in Ohio’s most populous county. Jacqueline Maiden,elections coordinator of the Cuyahoga County Elections Board, andballot manager Kathleen Dreamer each were convicted of a felony countof negligent misconduct of an elections employee. They also wereconvicted of one misdemeanor count each of failure of electionsemployees to perform their duty.
Prosecutors accused Maiden and Dreamer of secretly reviewingpreselected ballots before a public recount on Dec. 16, 2004. Theyworked behind closed doors for three days to pick ballots they knewwould not cause discrepancies when checked by hand, prosecutors said.
Just two days ago, Senator John Kerry (D-MA) nearly broke down in tears on the Senate floor while announcing that he would not run for president in 2008. He started choking up after acknowledging how close he came to the presidency in '04.
Last year, Robert Kennedy Jr. wrote a column in that detailed most of the election day flaws in Ohio. Had the recount been conducted properly, maybe it would have led to an even larger investigation that could have overturned the results. Or, maybe Bush still would have won Ohio. Nonetheless, the 2004 vote marked the second straight presidential election where there were voting irregularities in the most decisive state.
Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) on CBS' Sunday news show Face the Nation that he will make an announcement "fairly soon" regarding a potential presidential run. But what really caught the eye of many political analysts was an entry in the blog about there being an unusual open spot in Oprah's schedule this week. There are guests scheduled for today, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday -- but no one for Wednesday. It has long been speculated that Obama would make an announcement on her show, which would be smart in order to take some female votes away from Hillary Clinton:
A tipster with knowledge of Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) presidentialcampaignplanning hints that an official announcement may be made onthe Chicago-based Oprah Winfrey Show this week.
The Oprah schedulefor Wednesday, January 17 says to "check back later" for more detailson the show. Since all shows are taped in advance, this suggestssomething is up.
(Here is so you can check if it has changed)
Within the last day, there is indication that this might be more than just a weak rumor. reports that Obama suddenly canceled his Martin Luther King Day speech, and has little planned this week:
Obama canceled tentative plans to deliver the keynote address forMartin Luther King Jr. Day ceremonies at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg,Va. University officials speculated that Obama's travel has beentemporarily suspended as he approaches the start of his presidentialcandidacy.
One year ago, many had hoped that Barack Obama would run for president in 2012 or 2016. Now, Obama probably understands that the Senate floor is where charisma and and originality die. If he were to run, now would be the best time for him.
This is quietly going under the radar. The Republicans have to pay the Democrats $135,000 in damages because of the robo-calling incident in New Hampshire on election day:
Republicans had hired a telemarketing firm to place hundreds of hang-upcalls to phone banks for the Democratic Party and the Manchesterfirefighters union, a nonpartisan group offering rides to the polls.Service was disrupted for nearly two hours.
Trying to prevent the elderly and disabled from being able to vote -- what a democratic and freedom-loving thing to do, especially since they spend so much time preaching those ideals. It just goes to show how far some people will go in order to remain in positions of power, even if it means disrespecting laws that were enacted by the very institution that their majority party had sworn to serve.
Just one month and one day until the Democrats take the gavel!
Who stands the best shot at winning the Democratic nomination? This is the first in a series of weekly posts that will forecast the odds that each Democratic hopeful has in winning the nomination.
As the war in Iraq boils over and the Democratic Congress prepares to assume its leadership position in January, it is probably not a good idea to become too fixated on the 2008 race for president. I don't plan to analyze this each day between now and next fall. However, this winter is a time in which a lot of candidates will start making formal announcements. In the coming weeks, I will pay close attention to who is thinking of joining the field.
As General Wesley Clark, a 2004 presidential candidate, yesterday, he made a strategic error by getting into the race so late last time around. When he joined the field in September of 2003, he hardly had any funds and did not even hire a campaign manager until November. By that time, he only had two months until the Iowa Caucus. From watching what happened to Clark in '03, candidates will want to get in early. Setting up a presidential exploratory committee offers potential contenders a loophole in the federal elections law that allows them to raise cash without formally declaring their candidacy. Since Hillary Clinton already raised tens of millions of dollars, hardly anyone will be able to compete with her unless they start setting up exploratory committees immediately.
Without further adieu, here are the odds for each of the possible Democratic contenders. I base this on potential appeal in early battleground states, unfavorable rating, potential issues in late-'07 and early-'08, fundraising potential, and net-roots support. This is more or less my analytical bias, and does not represent any bias for who I want the Democratic nominee to be (I am undecided, anyway!):
Hillary Clinton - 24% chance
John Edwards - 17% chance
Barack Obama - 16% chance
Al Gore - 15% chance
Evan Bayh - 7% chance
Bill Richardson - 5% chance
Joe Biden - 5% chance
Wesley Clark - 5% chance
Tom Vilsack - 3% chance
John Kerry - 2% chance
Chris Dodd - 1% chance
Keep in mind that these numbers will fluctuate over time, especially when some candidates from this list officially take their names out of the hat.
Every projection like this requires some kind of analysis. Here is the way I see it. Hillary Clinton is definitely in the lead right now, for the most part due to her significant money advantage that would help mobilize get out the vote efforts and travel in the early primary states (Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina). What she has going against her is her vote for the war and her unpopularity among Democratic activists.
That brings us to the race to become what I call the "anti-Hillary" candidate. As of this moment, there is a log-jam between Barack Obama, John Edwards and Al Gore. Voters who want an alternative besides Hillary Clinton will likely choose between these three candidates. John Edwards is very popular in the labor movement, who are more likely to choose a Washington outsider that has stood against free trade agreements like NAFTA and CAFTA. Al Gore is also a serious threat to Hillary Clinton's nomination, and has a strong following in the Northeast and out West. It still remains to be seen whether Gore's green themes will catch on in Nevada, Iowa and South Carolina. However, being that New Hampshire is in the Northeast, and being that the state has historically respected independent-minded, maverick candidates, Al Gore might even be the odds on favorite there. Then there is the wild card: Barack Obama. The Illinois Senator is also a threat to Hillary Clinton because he will grab a significant portion of the female vote. Already pledging to announce his candidacy on the Oprah Winfrey show, should he decide to enter the race, Obama might cut Hillary's female voting base by a third. Out of the three -- Gore, Edwards and Obama -- Edwards has a slight advantage because of his popularity among local politicians in Iowa and Nevada. Edwards travels to both places more than any other presidential hopeful in both parties. In January of 2004, the Des Moines Register newspaper endorsed him. Over the last half year, Edwards has campaigned with hotel unions in Las Vegas. The Edwards strategy appears center around winning Iowa and Nevada by getting the support of labor unions, while conceding New Hampshire and then going after South Carolina, which he won in 2004.
When you move down the list, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Joe Biden, and Senator Evan Bayh are still within striking distance. They don't have a lot of name recognition, especially Evan Bayh. But of the three, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh definitely has the advantage. By next fall, those who have never heard of him today will learn to appreciate him as a very positive, consensus-building leader. As an opponent of gay marriage and flag burning, it would be difficult for the Republicans to attack Bayh in the general election. However, his biggest obstacle might come from the NRA, which has consistently opposed his strong gun control stances. He voted for the Iraq war and against partial birth abortion. However, he did vote against a repeal of the estate tax, in support of investigating the no-bid contracts in Iraq, and yes on a bill that would have reduced our dependence on foreign oil (had it passed). He is very much an environmentalist, but conservative on social issues. Bill Richardson and Joe Biden both have foreign policy credentials. It is highly probable that they would be considered as a vice presidential pick.
As far as the remaining candidates are concerned, here is all that needs to be said. John Kerry would be committing political suicide by running again, especially after his botched joke. Chris Dodd lacks publicity. However, if the Connecticut Senator can pass his bill that would repeal the Military Commissions Act, then he will have helped himself. Tom Vilsack has declared his intention to run. Keep in mind though that Vilsack is not even catching on in his home state of Iowa, which still seems to be split between Edwards and Clinton. Wesley Clark lacks both attention and money, therefore he would be wise to enter the race ASAP.
Again, I am going to try and make this a weekly thing. If it catches on, great. If not, then I will find some other way of critiquing the field.
Barack Obama is putting together a team of campaign veterans in the state of Iowa.
Illinois Senator Barack Obama is all of a sudden seeking advisers that know the terrain in Iowa, should he decide to run for the presidency in 2008. Iowa holds the first caucus of the Democratic primary season. According to the , Obama is seeking advice from an array of experts from the state, including one person that helped John Kerry win Iowa in 2004:
Shortly after the Nov. 7 election, Obama telephoned John Norris, theDes Moines Democrat who ran John Kerry's winning campaign in the 2004Iowa caucuses.
"He basically called to talk about the lay of theland in Iowa," said Norris, who described Obama's inquiries as"earnest" and reflecting genuine uncertainty about his future.
Also, a Democratic activist in Des Moines by the name of George Appleby, who had previously worked for Mark Warner, now works in Iowa for Obama and says that the Illinois Senator will decide soon whether or not to run:
"I have talked with the Obama people, and I have agreed to do someinitial stuff for him, pending his making the decision to go or not togo," Appleby said.
"They tell me he will make a decision within a couple of weeks."
Obviously there is still more than one full year until the Iowa Caucus. However, over the next month we will see a lot of activity because likely candidates will start setting up presidential exploratory committees, allowing them to raise money without formally declaring a White House bid. It will give us a good idea of what the field will look like.
The Delaware Senator probably realizes that the time is now to showcase his foreign policy depth to the mass public if he has any shot of even competing for the presidency.
With 's (D-PA) crushing defeat last week in the race for House Majority Leader, the Congressman's reduced rhetorical stature opens the door for other Democrats with foreign policy credentials to compete for the role of party spokesperson on Iraq. Many predict that Senator (D-DE) will fill that role.
Throughout his entire legislative career, and particularly after the September 11th attacks, Senator Biden has been very well respected inside academic circles in terms of his wide-ranging knowledge about foreign policy issues. Immediately following Osama bin Laden's escape into the mountains of Tora Bora in 2002, Biden for more of a multi-lateral force presence in Afghanistan. Instead, troops were drawn down. Today, with up 50% in 2006 amid a continued , many might conclude that Biden's advice should have been followed. From Iraq to nuclear non-proliferation, to our detention policies, to how the United States can win the war against terrorism, Biden has led by offering realistic alternatives to Bush's policies, while most other Democrats have done little more than merely oppose the Administration. Biden's message to Democrats is clear: if you oppose something, at least offer a thoughtful solution.
Biden, who is mulling over a run for the presidency in 2008, has something going for him. Since the Democrats took back Senate majority, he can now showcase his depth of knowledge as the new Chairman of the . Even more so than Carl Levin, who will Chair the Armed Services Committee, Democrats are expecting Biden to take the lead role. If he takes advantage of this opportunity and sets out specific policy objectives for Iraq and the war on terror that the Democrats can unite around, he will have made a huge case to become the next commander-in-chief.
However, it is unlikely that President Bush will follow Biden's advice. So what the Delaware Senator can do is play the 2008 role of "I told you so." So how does that work? As it has been highly publicized over the last few days, John McCain, the potential Republican presidential front-runner, is calling for in Iraq. The current political climate points toward President Bush following a policy path similar to the one McCain laid out. If such policy decision backfires by not resulting in a stabilized Iraq, then Joe Biden can say in a head-to-head match-up against John McCain that the Arizona Senator and Mr. Bush were wrong about Iraq, and our country cannot afford to have that kind of misguided leadership for the next eight years. From a political strategy standpoint, it is as simple as that. Biden, assuming he will elaborate on his Iraq solution soon, is in an excellent position to best John McCain on foreign affairs, should the two meet in the 2008 general election.
In the coming months, look for Joe Biden to strategically assert himself as a strong Democrat by offering a clear alternative to the McCain proposal of adding more troops -- which President Bush is almost sure to enact. Biden probably realizes as well as most pundits that in order to beat people like Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, Evan Bayh, or John Edwards in the Democratic primaries, he will need to immediately go full speed ahead and define himself to the mass public as a smart, decisive leader on foreign affairs with a clear idea of how to take the country in a different direction.
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