With of Hillary Clinton on Monday, it is pretty clear that the Democratic Leadership Council, which originally and currently for the conflict, is embracing the current front-runner. Remember, just a few months ago, Tom Vilsack, former Iowa Governor and Chairman of the DLC, also .
The old Washington Democratic establishment is jumping on the Clinton bandwagon. Would it be out of the question to assume that if the former First Lady wins the nomination, the vice presidential nominee will also be a DLC type?
Is the old Washington establishment better suited to bring about genuine change than a fresher group of leaders that are based somewhere else besides Washington? Most of the country wants change. Maybe if most Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina voters knew what the DLC was, and how its main goal is to protect career politicians, they would be more inclined to seek a fresh face.
If I were Obama or Edwards, I would frame this as a battle between the DLC and the new progressive grassroots. The former is run by career politicians, and the latter is driven by the combined energy and efforts of concerned citizens like us.
Even though this is a Saturday, there is major news on the 2008 presidential front.
First, Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) has decided to bow out of the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination because of all the media attention that has been squared directly at Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. This comes just a few weeks after on ABC News' Sunday talk show "This Week" that he would launch a presidential exploratory committee.
Bayh submitted a letter that was posted on the Star web site:
The odds were always going to be very long for a relatively unknowncandidate like myself, a little bit like David and Goliath. And whetherthere were too many Goliaths or whether I'm just not the right David,the fact remains that at the end of the day, I concluded that due tocircumstances beyond our control the odds were longer than I felt Icould responsibly pursue.
As the hinted this morning, Bayh's decision probably had a lot to do with what happened in New Hampshire last weekend. While the media was busy reporting Barack Obama's appearance in Manchester, not many people knew that Evan Bayh was there as well. The media's silent treatment of Bayh's candidacy sent the signal that it would be too difficult to pursue a presidential run this time around, and he might be better off waiting until 2012 or 2016.
Now to John Edwards. According to a variety of sources, John Edwards will officially announce his entry into the presidential race. Democratic strategist said that Edwards may be the only other candidate that can compete with Hillary and Obama:
"There'sroom for one more. The question is: Who is it right now? And I don'tthink anybody can tell you with any real certainty of who that couldbe," she said.
Edwards will make his announcement around December 28th, which will preempt a decision by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama:
Edwards plans to give Iowa more attention an announcement tour tobegin around Dec. 28, the Democratic officials said. He plans to travelfrom New Orleans to Iowa and the three other early voting states -Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
The officials whodiscussed Edwards' plans spoke on condition of anonymity because theydid not want to pre-empt his announcement. Edwards' spokesman, DavidGinsberg, would not confirm or deny Edwards' plans.
So does that mean Edwards' announcement speech would be given from New Orleans? Talk about political pandering!
Hillary she will wait until the first part of January before making an announcement. Obama will no later than mid-January. Evan Bayh and Tom Vilsack are already in it. But just when you thought that eleven possible Democratic candidates were enough, another individual threw his name into the hat yesterday. U.S. Congressman (D-OH) that he will run in 2008 because he believes his party has done a poor job challenging the President to get troops out of Iraq:
The liberal, anti-war Ohio congressman said he was inspired to runbecause he disagrees with the way some of his fellow Democrats arehandling the war, including approval of a proposal to spend $160billion more on the conflict.
"Democrats were swept into power on Nov. 7 because of widespreadvoter discontent with the war in Iraq," said Kucinich, 60. "Instead ofheeding those concerns and responding with a strong and immediatechange in policies and direction, the Democratic congressionalleadership seems inclined to continue funding the perpetuation of thewar."
His candidacy might have some initial appeal -- that is if he were running against Bush. But when the reality sets in that George W. Bush is not running for reelection, progressive voters might be looking for a fresh face -- which is why Evan Bayh and Barack Obama could have a lot of appeal.
Speaking of Evan Bayh (D-IN), his recent New Hampshire visit was overlooked by the mainstream media because Obama gave a big speech there around the same time. But that didn't stop Bayh from telling New Hampshire voters that his number top issues in 2008 will be global warming and energy independence. He says those issues have bipartisan appeal. The reported on his trip:
"I'd begin with this energy issue, includingglobal warming, because it affects so many important things and becausethere's some common ground there," he said.
Bayhwas hosted by Democratic state senators from Keene and Cornish onSunday, after speaking at a reception in Manchester on Saturday night.
Bayhhas promoted himself as a moderate who can work with Republicans. Hesaid he expected the new Democratic majorities in Congress would makefederal funding for stem cell research one of its their top prioritieswhen it convenes in January.
Back to Obama's New Hampshire trip. reported that the "largest crowd in modern New Hampshire history" saw his speech on Sunday afternoon.
Without further adeiu, here are the weekly rankings for each of the Democratic hopefuls. Dennis Kucinich's name has been added to the list, impacting some of the candidates (Remember, these are rankings based on a political science student's take on who has the best odds, as of now, of winning the Democratic nomination. This is not who I want to win. It is based on who I think has the upper hand on fundraising, appeal in the early primary states, a low unfavorable rating, and the best campaign team.).
Hillary Rodham-Clinton - 24%
Barack Obama - 19%
John Edwards - 15%
Al Gore - 14%
Evan Bayh - 8%
Wesley Clark - 7%
Bill Richardson - 4%
Tom Vilsack - 3%
Joe Biden - 2%
Dennis Kucinich - 2%
John Kerry - 1%
Chris Dodd - 1%
(last week's ) Up a few points is Barack Obama. I was waiting to see what type of a reception he got in New Hampshire. Since the officials up there said it surpassed everything they had predicted, I am giving him an edge of four points on Edwards now, who seems to have hit a brick wall. The former North Carolina Senator's media attention is way down. The media is branding this as a match-up between Clinton and Obama. If Gore gets in the race at the end of the summer, that may destroy any slim chance that Edwards might have. For every day that Obama or Clinton spends in Iowa, Nevada or New Hampshire, John and Elizabeth will need to spend double the time campaigning in those places. Unless either John or Elizabeth write another book soon, their media honeymoon might be over.
Also, if it weren't for the fact that there will be major hearings on Iraq in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when the Democrats take back Congress, then I would put Joe Biden at the very bottom of the list. But those hearings will give him a lot of press coverage, since he is the Chairman of that committee. Still, I see the likelihood of Biden getting nominated as less than Bill Richardson or Wesley Clark.
(Before I get to the meat of this post, just know that I am still mostly impartial when I write blog entries on this site about the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Just because I am following Obama's New Hampshire trip this weekend doesn't mean I am supporting him. He is definitely the most "interesting" candidate at this point, in terms of his personal story. Yet, as with every other Democratic hopeful, there are some obvious strategic downsides to his candidacy. So just because I spend more time on three or four candidates during a given two-week period does not mean I either like or dislike them more than the rest of the field. I have been getting a lot of e-mails lately criticizing me for being obsessed about Barack Obama and Evan Bayh -- even though I am truly not. So that is why I am bringing this up.)
Still testing the waters a bit, Barack Obama is making a very important trip to New Hampshire this weekend. Sunday is the big day. He will engage in a book-signing event in Portsmouth, and then head over and at a major party event in Manchester.
Obama told the he is still trying to get used to all the attention:
"The whole prospect of a presidential race for me is not something I'veengineered. I was on a different internal clock," Obama said in atelephone interview. "It's only been in the last couple of months thatthe amount of interest in a potential candidacy reached the point whereI had to consider seriously."
He is expected to make an announcement regarding whether or not he will be running in just a matter of weeks. After that time, Hillary Clinton can either start panicking or give off a huge sigh of relief.
Actually, in my own personal view, Barack Obama's candidacy might even help Hillary Clinton in the short-term. Between January and about July, the race will be on to see which individual can establish themselves as the "anti-Hillary" candidate. Political wisdom might suggest that Obama and Edwards would split the donations from the anti-Hillary crowd, thus giving Hillary an even larger relative advantage.
One more point. All this presidential talk was not even supposed to happen this early. What we are seeing is really unprecedented in terms of the impact of star power. Originally, the plan was that Hillary Clinton would not announce her candidacy until March or April of 2007. But with Barack Obama stealing the spotlight, Clinton needs to move everything up in order to reduce the amount of consecutive months the media spends trying to hype up Obama. So now with Hillary trying to aggressively match Obama, that forces everyone else in the field to move their announcements up as well. That was why we saw Tom Vilsack and Evan Bayh announce within the last few weeks. Expect John Edwards and possibly Bill Richardson to also move everything in their calendar up a few weeks. The only candidate that can get away with starting late is Al Gore. Even if Gore entered the race in September, the buzz he could create might shift the entire Democratic political landscape -- especially if voters were getting bored with the pre-Gore presidential field.
Obama's visit in New Hampshire is extremely important because it forces other candidates to behave just as aggressively in order to attract the finite amount of media attention that there is.
You have to background check these guys, especially since they might be president for eight years. As blogger Ezra Klein wrote yesterday, Evan Bayh in 2001 was among all of Congress for credit card company donations. No wonder he voted for a major anti-middle-class bankruptcy bill that same year:
Bayh, during this period, was 10th in the Congress for credit company donations. But forget merely voting fortheir reprehensible bill, Bayh even voted against any amendments tosoften its reach or mitigate its harm. Now, as he suits up for apresidential run, he's relearning the language of populism.
This has to do with the , which made it harder for non-firms average Americans to declare Chapter XI, and easier for big-business.
Evan Bayh may be very smart, pragmatic and understanding of all the issues. Yet, this is an area to be concerned about. I hope that a populist candidate like John Edwards brings this up during a Democratic presidential debate when they begin having them in the fall of '07.
Democratic presidential candidate Evan Bayh (Sen-IN) went on Fox News today and discussed his take on Robert Gates, Bush's nominee for Secretary of Defense.
I couldn't tell whether Evan Bayh was whispering because he didn't want to interrupt the hearing behind him, or if he just normally speaks that way. I think he speaks that way.
Senator (D-IN) appeared on , ABC News' Sunday talk show, and announced that he will set up a presidential exploratory committee for a possible run at the presidency in 2008. An exploratory committee allows candidates to raise money for their campaign without formally declaring a run for the presidency until a time of their choosing.
:
He said he would decide over the upcoming holidays whether to seek the Democratic nomination.
"We need someone who can deal with the dysfunction here in this city," the senator said.
He planned appearances Monday in Iowa and next weekend in New Hampshire, two early states on the campaign calendar.
Bayh has major national security credentials. As a Senator, he serves on the and the.
So where does this guy stand?
Social Issues: Pretty conservative all-around. He supported the idea of outlawing flag burning. He opposes gay marriage. He is also voted to outlaw late-term abortion (was given a 50% rating by NARAL). He supports federal funding for faith-based services.
Environment: Big environmentalist. In recent days, Bayh has been putting on the Energy Secretary to recommend that Congress increase funding for ethanol blend E-75 and other alternative energies. He voted to ban oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Free Trade: It's a mixed bag. Bayh voted no on CAFTA, but yes on a bill that helped expand free trade to the third world.
Guns: Very much for gun control. Voted against banning lawsuits for gun manufacturers, and yes on background checks at gun shows.
Immigration: Supports a guest-worker program.
Stem Cells: Supports federal funding for embryonic stem cells.
It looks like Evan Bayh and Tom Vilsack will battle over moderate voters in the primaries.
Still want to know more? Here is a video of Bayh on CNN, where he discussed the issue of Iraq.
Who stands the best shot at winning the Democratic nomination? This is the first in a series of weekly posts that will forecast the odds that each Democratic hopeful has in winning the nomination.
As the war in Iraq boils over and the Democratic Congress prepares to assume its leadership position in January, it is probably not a good idea to become too fixated on the 2008 race for president. I don't plan to analyze this each day between now and next fall. However, this winter is a time in which a lot of candidates will start making formal announcements. In the coming weeks, I will pay close attention to who is thinking of joining the field.
As General Wesley Clark, a 2004 presidential candidate, yesterday, he made a strategic error by getting into the race so late last time around. When he joined the field in September of 2003, he hardly had any funds and did not even hire a campaign manager until November. By that time, he only had two months until the Iowa Caucus. From watching what happened to Clark in '03, candidates will want to get in early. Setting up a presidential exploratory committee offers potential contenders a loophole in the federal elections law that allows them to raise cash without formally declaring their candidacy. Since Hillary Clinton already raised tens of millions of dollars, hardly anyone will be able to compete with her unless they start setting up exploratory committees immediately.
Without further adieu, here are the odds for each of the possible Democratic contenders. I base this on potential appeal in early battleground states, unfavorable rating, potential issues in late-'07 and early-'08, fundraising potential, and net-roots support. This is more or less my analytical bias, and does not represent any bias for who I want the Democratic nominee to be (I am undecided, anyway!):
Hillary Clinton - 24% chance
John Edwards - 17% chance
Barack Obama - 16% chance
Al Gore - 15% chance
Evan Bayh - 7% chance
Bill Richardson - 5% chance
Joe Biden - 5% chance
Wesley Clark - 5% chance
Tom Vilsack - 3% chance
John Kerry - 2% chance
Chris Dodd - 1% chance
Keep in mind that these numbers will fluctuate over time, especially when some candidates from this list officially take their names out of the hat.
Every projection like this requires some kind of analysis. Here is the way I see it. Hillary Clinton is definitely in the lead right now, for the most part due to her significant money advantage that would help mobilize get out the vote efforts and travel in the early primary states (Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina). What she has going against her is her vote for the war and her unpopularity among Democratic activists.
That brings us to the race to become what I call the "anti-Hillary" candidate. As of this moment, there is a log-jam between Barack Obama, John Edwards and Al Gore. Voters who want an alternative besides Hillary Clinton will likely choose between these three candidates. John Edwards is very popular in the labor movement, who are more likely to choose a Washington outsider that has stood against free trade agreements like NAFTA and CAFTA. Al Gore is also a serious threat to Hillary Clinton's nomination, and has a strong following in the Northeast and out West. It still remains to be seen whether Gore's green themes will catch on in Nevada, Iowa and South Carolina. However, being that New Hampshire is in the Northeast, and being that the state has historically respected independent-minded, maverick candidates, Al Gore might even be the odds on favorite there. Then there is the wild card: Barack Obama. The Illinois Senator is also a threat to Hillary Clinton because he will grab a significant portion of the female vote. Already pledging to announce his candidacy on the Oprah Winfrey show, should he decide to enter the race, Obama might cut Hillary's female voting base by a third. Out of the three -- Gore, Edwards and Obama -- Edwards has a slight advantage because of his popularity among local politicians in Iowa and Nevada. Edwards travels to both places more than any other presidential hopeful in both parties. In January of 2004, the Des Moines Register newspaper endorsed him. Over the last half year, Edwards has campaigned with hotel unions in Las Vegas. The Edwards strategy appears center around winning Iowa and Nevada by getting the support of labor unions, while conceding New Hampshire and then going after South Carolina, which he won in 2004.
When you move down the list, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Joe Biden, and Senator Evan Bayh are still within striking distance. They don't have a lot of name recognition, especially Evan Bayh. But of the three, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh definitely has the advantage. By next fall, those who have never heard of him today will learn to appreciate him as a very positive, consensus-building leader. As an opponent of gay marriage and flag burning, it would be difficult for the Republicans to attack Bayh in the general election. However, his biggest obstacle might come from the NRA, which has consistently opposed his strong gun control stances. He voted for the Iraq war and against partial birth abortion. However, he did vote against a repeal of the estate tax, in support of investigating the no-bid contracts in Iraq, and yes on a bill that would have reduced our dependence on foreign oil (had it passed). He is very much an environmentalist, but conservative on social issues. Bill Richardson and Joe Biden both have foreign policy credentials. It is highly probable that they would be considered as a vice presidential pick.
As far as the remaining candidates are concerned, here is all that needs to be said. John Kerry would be committing political suicide by running again, especially after his botched joke. Chris Dodd lacks publicity. However, if the Connecticut Senator can pass his bill that would repeal the Military Commissions Act, then he will have helped himself. Tom Vilsack has declared his intention to run. Keep in mind though that Vilsack is not even catching on in his home state of Iowa, which still seems to be split between Edwards and Clinton. Wesley Clark lacks both attention and money, therefore he would be wise to enter the race ASAP.
Again, I am going to try and make this a weekly thing. If it catches on, great. If not, then I will find some other way of critiquing the field.
The latest news about Al Gore in Sunday's Washington Post was enough to make me write a roundup of the most recent buzz pertaining to the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, which is now less than 15 months away (can you believe it?):
An article in suggests that Al Gore's presidential ambitions will become clearer after the release of his new book: The Assault on Reason. Don't go nuts -- the book won't be released until next May. The columnists wrote for today that "both the subject matter and the timing of the release have an unmistakable subtext." They added, "If the book strikes a chord, it will produce new momentum for Gore tomake another bid for the White House, presumably fueled in large partby anti-Iraq-war Democrats."
On Wednesday night, "Draft Warner" supporters met in Boston to drum up support for Mark Warner's likely bid for the White House in 2008. The turnout of supporters was .
Both Democratic and Republican presidential nominees are expected to turn down all public funding in 2008. that by the time November of 2008 rolls around, each candidate will have spent $500 million.
Earlier this summer, John Edwards actually led Hillary Clinton in a poll taken of Iowa voters. Iowa and South Carolina are thought of as his two strongest states. Now, Edwards is focusing his attention on Florida. He spent some time down there yesterday -- part of an effort to get close to the big names so they will be there for him should he decide to run. Both John Kerry and Hillary Clinton are also scheduling fundraisers with the Davis Campaign.
Just in case Hillary Clinton decides not to run, Evan Bayh is setting himself up to be the perfect centrist candidate among the Democratic field in 2008. On Friday, to not be a "bunch of wimps" on security issues. By that comment, Bayh did not mean the Democrats needed to be more hawkish -- instead, he just wanted the party to spend more time touting its security credentials.
Now that the Democratic Party has chosen Nevada to join Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina among the list of early 2008 primary destinations, potential 2008 candidates and their staffs are already schmoozing with local candidates in that state. As explains, within the last month and a half there has been a flurry of preparation among the 2008 Democratic contenders to familiarize themselves with the political terrain:
We can't find this online, but... '08 Dem hopefuls "are scrambling" toschedule appearances in NV and the NV Dem party is "hitting the gas" inan attempt to keep up with the "fast-track campaigning" of possiblecontenders. Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC), Gov. Bill Richardson(D-NM) and Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner are among those planning trips.Warner staff Jonathan Epstein "has already made the rounds here" andSen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) "has a trioi of staffers" working for NV candidates in the fall. Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) knows of at least "three other paid staff" in the state. Clark Co. Commission Chair Rory Reid has been contacted by Warner and Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE). Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman "has received a host of phone calls." And Dem GOV candidate Dina Titus has spoken with several candidates, including Sen. Hillary Clinton. Longtime Dem political consultant Don Hart"has been contacted by Biden and Warner."
Hotline blog adds that Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) believes Nevada is a much better place to have an early primary because it is a ideal representation of mainstream America in comparison to Iowa and New Hampshire:
Reid "is not " concilliatorytoward NH. Reid: "Why should this country's future be determined by astate like Iowa where there is no diversity and a state like NewHampshire where there is no diversity and no people?"
I have never been to New Hampshire or Iowa, so I can only go on statistics. I have, however, gone to Nevada on almost a dozen occasions. Harry Reid represents a very diverse state as far as income and ethnicity. Right now, Nevada is one of the fastest growing states in the country. Keep in mind that in 2004 in the country. Nevada, therefore, might be a great place to have an early primary.
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