The Blue State

2008 roundup: Biden takes Edwards seriously

Once every few weeks I will run through the most note-worthy political news regarding the 2008 race.  With the midterms just more than two months away, we have every reason to be almost entirely focused on the fate of the Legislative Branch.  But every now and then, I will preview the 2008 Democratic primary race, which is still wide open.

Here is the latest from the campaign trail:

• One year ago, Senator Joe Biden (D-Delaware) said that he would test the waters to for a possible presidential run.  As of this moment, it appears as though he will definitely run.  He spent the last couple of weeks in Iowa.  This weekend he is in South Carolina, a state where John Edwards is favored.  In an AP article that covered Biden's South Carolina trip, the Senator from Delaware was quoted saying that Edwards is a goner if he doesn't win that state.  "If John loses South Carolina, he's done," Biden said.  However, Biden was not trash-talking.  In fact, he has a great deal of respect for Edwards.  Biden said that "John is a real player" and he does "take John real seriously."  According to a different article one week ago, Biden said that he and his family had a talk around Christmas of 2004, and they all signed on to the commitment.  The last time Joe Biden ran for president was in 1988.
• Mark Warner spent last weekend in New Hampshire getting an early start on the campaigning.  Yesterday that trip paid off as The Daily Press, a Virginia newspaper, touted his pledge to campaign in New Hampshire if the state decides to defy the DNC and move its primary to an earlier date.
• Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a Republican, is considering the idea of running for president in 2008.  But an Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock poll finds that Arkansans would favor both Hillary Clinton and Wesley Clark over Huckabee.  Clinton got the better of Huckabee by a 49% to 36% margin.  Wesley Clark received even better numbers, beating Huckabee 51% to 37%.
• Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold is scheduled to address the Chicago Bar on Monday.
• The Daily Nation, a Kenyan newspaper, is fantasizing about Hillary Clinton possibly choosing Barack Obama as her running mate.
• According to Sunday's Washington Post, Evan Bayh is strengthening ties with New Hampshire Governor John Lynch and Iowa Gubernatorial candidate Chet Culver.  "Bayh's fundraising gambit is the latest evidence of his innovativeapproach to courting the activists essential to the 2008 nominatingprocess," the newspaper wrote for Sunday.

More 2008 campaign news in a few weeks, or when a major story breaks.

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Other sites blogging about 2008: Think South, Quigley, The Huffington Post, Jiblog, Orblogs, The Pamphleteer, The Gun Toting Liberal, Blue Grassroots, Democrats in the South, Blue Grass Report, Crimes and Corruptions of the New World, Western Democrat.

Edwards and Bayh understand the importance of Iowa

For the Democrats, it's all about Iowa.  As we learned in 2004, winning Iowa is essential in order to get a bounce heading into the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.  With today's hyper news cycle, whoever wins Iowa gets instant rock-star status in the media.

Both John Edwards and Evan Bayh, two potential presidential candidates, are among the favorites in Iowa.  Yesterday I wrote about how Edwards and Bayh have similar charming personalities, which is why the two face the possibility that they might cancel each other out a little (another way of saying that voters might confuse the two).

But still, they deserve credit.  The two are both ahead of their game in Iowa, as the Washington Post points out this morning:

This weekend, Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.) was to honor a state representative at a coffee shop inMuscatine, while former senator John Edwards (N.C.), the 2004 vicepresidential nominee, planned to attend a barbecue for party faithfulin Indianola, among other events.

Edwards and Bayh have made thebiggest splashes in Iowa since the 2004 election. But they are beingjoined in Iowa this month by the 2004 presidential nominee, Sen. John F. Kerry  (Mass.), and former Virginia governor Mark R. Warner.

Alsoactive in Iowa is Tom Vilsack, who will retire from the governorship atthe end of his term as he ponders a 2008 bid. He and Bayh are the onlytwo potential candidates to have political staff workers already on theground, according to the Register.

A poll last month by theRegister showed Edwards leading other potential Democratic contenders,with 30 percent of the vote of people likely to participate in thecaucuses.  Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton  (N.Y.), who has not made a priority of visiting Iowa, came in second, followed by Kerry and Vilsack.

John Edwards is almost definitely running for president.  By every indication, he seems to be waiting for the right time to do so, which could be within the next twelve months.  My guess is that Edwards wants to make his intentions known early.  Although he ended strong in Iowa in 2004, he started out very slow and did not have enough money to compete with Dean and Kerry until later.  So I would not be surprised if he was one of the first to announce his candidacy, part of a proactive effort to get a running start ahead of Hillary Clinton, Mark Warner and John Kerry.

Evan Bayh is getting in the way of John Edwards

The Associated Press published a story this morning that will probably annoy the living daylights out of John Edwards. 

Last month the latest 2008 Iowa Caucus poll showed John Edwards leading all candidates, even Hillary Clinton, in the state of Iowa.  Analysts said that he was out in front because he has successfully defined himself as a charming, down to earth, rural American guy that can relate with the American worker.  Until now, no Democratic candidate has fit that precise role.

Now John Edwards is going to have some competition.  Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, who also might run for president in 2008, is trying to come across to voters as the exact same kind of person.  He is currently in Iowa for some campaigning:

"The chatter that you hear is that he's a good guy and nice and hehas that honest, Midwestern feel to him, kind of like Harry Truman,"said veteran Democratic strategist Dane Strother. "That's allappealing."

In his fifth trip to Iowa in the last year, the centrist IndianaDemocrat opened a three-day swing Thursday with a fundraiser indowntown Des Moines for legislative candidates. He mingled easily withabout 50 party activists for more than an hour and made a point ofchatting with everyone in the room.

"He's a Midwesterner and that will help him in Iowa," said stateSenate Democratic leader Michael Gronstal. "It's up to him to sellhimself, and so far he's been fairly impressive."

John Edwards and Evan Bayh are running almost exactly the same style of campaign, even though their views are somewhat different.  This is huge.  There are about nine or ten possible Democrats that will run for president.  The candidate that will emerge victorious in Iowa, the first contest in the primary season, will only finish with around 20% of the vote.  The personality that stands out the most will end up getting that 20%.  If John Edwards and Evan Bayh mirror one another in personality, that is a problem for both candidates, yet very good for Hillary Clinton.

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Other blogs writing about Evan Bayh: Political Roads, Diary of a Political Madman, Political Forecast, Hotline, Unearth Indiana, Common Sense, Things Going Round & Round.

A note to my readers about 2008

Let's take a break from the 2006 midterm elections for a moment.  I know that just about every post on this blog for the last few weeks has focused on the Democratic bid to take back the Senate and House this November.  But I'd like to address an issue that other progressive blogs -- especially the big ones like Daily Kos, MyDD and Crooks and Liars -- will have to deal with as the 2008 primaries approach (and yes, the Iowa Caucus is only 18 months away).

The unsettled debate among progressive blog authors is whether or not to officially endorse a candidate either right before or during the primaries.  On one hand, if you do endorse a candidate, as a daily publisher of content you run the risk of being thought of as partial and unreliable.  On the flip side, by not endorsing a candidate you are essentially keeping a secret from your loyal visitors -- because, let's face it, everyone following politics has a preference right before an election.  After much thought, I have decided that once I have thoroughly made up my mind beyond a reasonable doubt, I will not hide that opinion from any of you.  This decision might come as early as October of 2007 or as late as a few days before the vote in January of 2008.

For the most part, I think of the blogosphere as a breath of fresh air that is a sharp contrast from the filtered content that the mainstream media throws at us each day.  It goes against the whole point of a blog for its author to think one thing and say another.

Obviously, after I make my endorsement (unless for some weird reason I don't like any of the candidates), I will do my best to be as impartial as I possibly can towards the other contenders.  If I support "Candidate A," that does mean I will focus all my energy on trashing the living daylights out of the other candidates.  In other words, there will be no personal attacks against other Democrats (unless I am responding to an attack that they make against me, of course). 

With the exception of the unlikely possibility that Joe Lieberman would run for president in 2008, I do not think that any of the current 2008 Democratic hopefuls would make a bad president.  For example, even though I have been sharply critical of Hillary Clinton, Tom Vilsack, Evan Bayh and John Kerry and Chris Dodd from time to time, I would still support any of them if they won the party's nomination.

As of now, I will say that I am leaning towards Barack Obama, Mark Warner, John Edwards, Wesley Clark, Al Gore, Joe Biden, Russ Feingold, or Bill Richardson (assuming that all of them will run, even though a few probably won't).  Obviously though, things will certainly change between now and then, and I do not expect to gravitate too close to any of those contenders for the time being.

So, as a little heads-up, just know that as 2008 approaches I will not have any hidden motivations when I write any post about a Democratic candidate.  I think that all of the 2008 Democratic hopefuls  have excellent leadership qualities that would help them lead our country in a more positive direction than it is today.  Once I endorse a candidate right before the Iowa Caucus, you will know about it.  The thirst to present unfiltered honesty is a large reason why I author this web site every day.  Don't expect that to change anytime soon.
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Other blogs writing about the 2008 race: Dyre Portents, Latina Sista, Guerilla news, Political Roads, Cold Flute, The Eisenthal Report, Pressing the Flesh, Outside Report, Blue Broward, Democratic Convention 2008, Doug Henwood Talks, Poverty News Blog, The Reality-Based Community, Media Wingnuts, Progressive American.

Guess which 2008 Democratic hopeful leads in Iowa

18 months from now, Iowa Democrats and independents will meet in precincts all over the state to determine who will emerge victorious in the 2008 Iowa Caucus.  Not only is Iowa the first on the list of primary destinations, but last time around it was the most important.  In 2004, John Kerry came from behind to surpass both Howard Dean and John Edwards to win Iowa, and he never looked back.

The DeMoies Register conducted a poll earlier this month of likely voters in the 2008 Democratic caucus.  Here are the results:

All those appearances in Iowa over the last year have paid off for John Edwards.  It was as if the 2004 campaign never ended.  Fittingly, as this poll was being talked about on Meet the Press yesterday, Edwards spent the day talking with folks in Bettendorf, Iowa.  He understands that the state is the key to a huge early advantage in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Al Gore sneaks up in latest 2008 primary poll

The latest Democratic primary straw poll was just released by the Cook Political Report.  Al Gore is catching up to Hillary Clinton:

"I am going to read a list of people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2008, and I will read the list twice.  I would like you to tell me who would be your FIRST CHOICE for the nomination? . . ." Names rotated.         Among Democrats     and leaners.

Hillary Clinton - 31%
Al Gore - 18%
John Kerry - 14%
John Edwards - 11%
Joe Biden - 4%
Mark Warner - 3%
Wesley Clark - 3%
Evan Bayh - 2%
Russ Feingold - 2%
Bill Richardson - 2%
Chris Dodd - 1%
Tom Vilsack - 0%
Other - 10%

I still am not convinced that Hillary Clinton is electable.  Every Democrat, including myself, would obviously throw their support behind her if she ended up being the nominee.  But with books out like American Evita, which recklessly attack the former First Lady for something she is not, she might be too wounded to even stand a chance against GOP heavyweights like John McCain, Rudy Giuliani or George Allen.

This poll did leave out Barack Obama, who has created a lot of buzz over the last couple of weeks.  Sources say that he might decide to stun everyone and enter the race for president in 2008.  Now here is a guy who is popular, well-rounded and respected enough to get more votes than both Hillary (primaries) and McCain (November).  Singer Neil Young and Senator Dick Durbin have already endorsed him.  Obama also has the highest national approval rating of any Democrat.

Democrats in need a specific security strategy

Yesterday, Centrist-Democrats urged their party to adopt a clear foreign policy approach, as opposed to just sitting there and criticizing the status quo without offering any plan to fix it.  Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, a potential 2008 White House candidate, explained:

"We still have a hurdle to cross with the American people in convincingthem we can be both tough and smart when it comes to securing America,"said Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.). Voters may have more confidence inDemocrats on the economy or education, he said, but, "they're not goingto trust us on those things if they don't first us trust us with theirlives."

From a personal standpoint, all those international relations classes that I have taken at the University of Washington have made me feel the same way.  Throughout the last twenty years, Republicans have been thought of by a majority of Americans as the stronger party when it comes to national defense.  It is so frustrating because it does not have to be this way.  The problem stems from the fact that so few Democrats even have their own foreign policy strategy.  Obviously, some do -- Wesley Clark, Joseph Biden, and John Murtha among a few others.  But if we spent less time talking about Bush's policy and more time giving suggestions of our own, then maybe the American people would show a little bit more faith in the Democrats when it comes to a broad security strategy.

It should be simply though.  The issues are right in front of us.  Port security is arguably our biggest weakness, as thousands of containers inside America, in cities such as Miami, go unchecked each day.  As far as the overall war on terrorism is concerned, we know that America would be better off with some help.  Democrats should introduce a 21st century American-European united front strategy against terrorism, where we work in collaboration with both the European Union and NATO to take steps to reduce nuclear proliferation and destroy terrorist cells.  Lastly, while our military should be more mobile, we also need to increase the size of the armed forces so that we can be better able to instantly respond to situations anywhere in the world if the moment arises.

This is not to say that an entire security strategy needs to be presented before the election.  But sometime in the near future Americans should not have to think twice, out of security concerns, about having Democrats at the helm.

Possible 2008 candidates report what they have raised

From what we know so far, this is what some potential 2008 Democratic presidential candidates have raised so far this year:

• Hillary Clinton : $6 million (she has a total of $39 million on-hand)
• Mark Warner: $1.85 million
• Evan Bayh: $469,000 (he has $967,000 on-hand)
• Tom Vilsack: $400,000 (has a total of $2 million on-hand)
• John Edwards: $286,000 (has $7,000 on-hand)

Interestingly, according to the Hotline Blog, former Vice President Al Gore spent $40,000 this quarter on polling research -- prompting Democrats to ask why?