The Blue State

George Allen's final piece of legislation

Now this one is a laugher!  As a lame duck U.S. Senator, following his loss to Democratic challenger James Webb, Virginia Republican George Allen wants to pass one more piece of legislation before he retires.  He is introducing a bill that would make it legal for people to carry concealed weapons in national parks, regardless of whether it endangers other people's safety.

So this is the all-important bill that Allen wants passed?  Could he not have thought of a more pressing issue facing his constituency in Virginia?  All so that he can go onto federal land with his country club friends and shoot ducks when he retires in less than two months.  What a waste of the Senate's time.

The New York Times Editorial Board ripped it apart earlier today:

As a last little gift to America, Senator George Allen, who wasnarrowly defeated by James Webb this month, has introduced what may behis final piece of legislation: a bill that would allow the carrying ofconcealed weapons in national parks. The argument behind the bill isthat national park regulations unfairly strip many Americans of a rightthey may enjoy outside the parks. The bill has passed to the SenateCommittee on Energy and Natural Resources, where we hope it will diethe miserable death it deserves.

   

America’s confusionabout the Second Amendment is now nearly total. An amendment thatensures a collective right to bear arms has been misread in onelegislature after another — often in the face of strong publicdisapproval — as a law guaranteeing an individual’s right to carry aweapon in public. And, in a perversion of monumental proportions, thebattle to extend that right has largely succeeded in co-opting thelanguage of the Civil Rights movement, so that depriving an American ofthe right to carry a gun in public sounds, to some, as offensive asstripping him of the right to vote. Senator Allen’s bill is, of course,being cheered by the gun lobby, which sees it not as an assault onpublic safety but as a way of nationalizing the armed paranoia that theNational Rifle Association and its cohorts stand for.

I am not concluding that people should not be allowed to carry guns in national parks.  But that is a debate for another time.  If he finds that to be such a huge issue worth the Senate's time -- especially while youngsters are dying in Iraq and the middle class is being manipulated at gas stations all over the country this Thanksgiving weekend -- then the majority of voters in Virginia should pat themselves on the back for getting rid of this guy a few weeks ago.

Again, what a WASTE of the Senate's time.  When the Democrats take the gavel in January, some real issues will be tackled for a change.

(Video) VA-Sen: Imagine if those threatening calls never happened

Had it not been for the Allen Campaign's threatening phone calls, this race might not be as close.

Just days before the election, a number of Virginia residents started getting phone calls from individuals at the Allen Campaign disguising themselves as members of the Virginia Elections Commission.  The people who were called were residents from Northern Virginia and some predominantly black districts.  They were told to not show up to vote or else they would be arrested.

Below is what one of those phone calls sounded like:

Even though this whole case might soon be moot, as it is expected that James Webb will maintain his 7,000-vote lead, we might not be talking about possible recounts if these calls had never happened.  Reportedly, thousands of people in Virginia got these phone calls.

All we can hope now is that James Webb hold onto his lead.

VA-Sen: Conflicting reports from the Allen Campaign

This morning, a spokesperson for James Webb, the Democrat who currently leads by a 7,000-vote margin with 99% counted, indicated that they are ready to resist any games that Allen's people might try to play with the votes:

Webb spokeswoman Kristian Denny Todd said thecampaign respects that the canvassing process is continuing, but saidthat as a practical matter, "the vote's been counted and Jim won."

"This isn't hanging chads or anything like that.I don't think the voters will like it if the Allen camp tries to makethis into a hanging chad situation because it's not the same thing,"she said.

Before Webb claimed victory early Wednesday,Allen urged his supporters to watch carefully as the remaining returnswere counted.

"The counting will continue through the night,and will continue tomorrow, and I know you will all be like eagles andhawks watching as every one of these votes are counted," Allen said.

This recount will be a very long process.  On November 27th, once the original election is certified by the Virginia Board of Elections, George Allen then has ten days to ask for a recount.  According to WVEC, a local tv station in Virginia, the only two other recounts in modern Virginia history barely changed anything:

McDonnell, aRepublican, defeated state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds by only 360 votes outof nearly 2 million cast in last year's election. Errors discoveredduring the canvass narrowed McDonnell's lead from about 3,300 votes to323 votes. He gained 37 votes in the recount.

"Because Virginia's voting procedures are very good and gettingbetter, once that detailed scrubbing of the vote is done through thecanvassing there's little change," McDonnell said.

In the only other statewide recount in modern Virginia history,Republican Marshall Coleman shaved only 113 votes from Democrat L.Douglas Wilder's 7,000-vote advantage in the 1989 governor's race.

In the only otherstatewide recount in modern Virginia history, Republican MarshallColeman shaved only 113 votes from Democrat L. Douglas Wilder's7,000-vote advantage in the 1989 governor's race.

While the state seems almost likely to head for a recount,  I received information via email that George Allen might just concede, otherwise his political career would be tarnished forever.  A source in D.C., that I have been using for the last two months for some information regarding this campaign, informed me today that there are rumors swirling around northern Virginia that George Allen will indeed concede.  This could happen within the next few hours, or within the next two days.

For awhile, I thought my source was nuts in his conclusion, so initially I did not want to post it on this site.  But over at the Daily Kos, Markos Moulitsas confirmed an almost identical rumor.  So we will have to wait and see.

VA-Sen: Very high turnout

The Associated Press is reporting very high turnout in Virgnia:

Reports from around Virginia early Tuesday indicated anextraordinarily high turnout for a midterm election, with perhaps 65percent of registered voters expected to cast ballots, state electionsofficials said. That would double the midterm turnout in 2002.

In Roanoke County, registrar Judy Stokes said turnout in theRepublican-leaning county was very heavy Tuesday morning. Two precinctshadn't reported their figures.

"They've been so busy they haven't had time to call in," she said.

Last night, George Allen took to the airwaves with a two-minute long television ad, appearing alongside Senator John Warner.  Warner asked voters to give Allen six more years.  But there aren't many undecided voters left in Virginia, so it will be interesting today to see the impact, if any, that the ad had.

VA-Sen: A Webb landslide? Depends on the polling formula

I regret that in some of my posts I offer more questions than answers.  At the same time, it is important to prepare for the worst.  In the case of the Virginia Senate race, a number of things can happen on election day.  I foresee three scenarios:

1. Polling companies understate the impact of Northern Virginia progressives, and James Webb wins comfortably by six or seven points.
2. GOP microtargeting technology plays a huge role in George Allen's victory, allowing him to sneak by with a one or two point victory.
3. The Progressive strength in Northern Virginia and the GOP microtargeting technology offset, and the race is decided days or weeks later in a recount.

So why would I even suggest three totally different scenarios?  The two most recent polls released today are polar opposites of one another, and demonstrate how certain assumptions from most polling companies about the demographics of Virginia are prone to inaccuracy:

Virginia Senate Race

Survey USA
(R) George Allen - 44%
(D) James Webb - 52%

USA Today/Gallup
(R) George Allen - 49%
(D) James Webb - 46%

As you might suspect, USA Today/Gallup and Survey USA conduct their polls in a different mathematical fashion, which can explain why they are so far off.  In a statement from Survey USA, they claim that their polling formula for the state of Virginia is the most accurate, and cite a historical example to explain why:

For those handicapping the contest: in 2005, a SurveyUSA poll inVirginia released one day before the Governor's election, showedDemocrat Tim Kaine with a new and significant lead over RepublicanJerry Kilgore. All previous polling from 6 pollsters had showed therace tied. The Democrat was elected Governor with 52% of the vote.Here, in 2006, in the Senate, it is certainly possible that the contestwill be closer than SurveyUSA polling shows it, and Allen may stillsurprise. But the pattern, one year later, of an almost identical latebreak to the Democrat is striking enough to warrant mention here.

If this poll is indeed accurate, then no microtargeting technology can help George Allen overcome an 8-point deficit with just one day to go.  I have a feeling though that the race will be closer, although Webb still has a slight advantage.  From the data I have looked at, I see no way that George Allen will win by more than two percent, if he wins at all.  The Webb Campaign clearly has the advantage, and has to be happy with the way they have managed their campaign.

VA-Sen: The '06 comeback kid

Down by more than 20 points a couple of months ago, the Webb campaign was struggling to find its message.  Now they are right back in it, even leading in most polls.  But the question is whether or not James Webb can match the excellent microtargeting technology of the Republican campaign machine?  We will find out on election day.

Meanwhile, a new USA Today poll was released on Monday morning, and it puts George allen ahead of James Webb slightly, although within the margin of terror -- making it a statistical tie:

Virginia Senate Race

(R) George Allen - 49%
(D) James Webb - 46%
Undecided - 5%

Where will those undecided voters eventually go?  Do they think George Allen has the spine to hold the President accountable on Iraq, or is it time for someone with actual military experience to offer his fresh take on how to solve our current quagmire?  Webb was Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan.

Friday Senate polling data

I might as well put this all into one post.  Believe it or not, the Democrats might have a better chance of winning Arizona than Tennessee.  Yesterday, Bill Clinton was in Arizona stumping for Democrat Jim Pederson.  You can watch the video here.

Here are the polls:

Tennessee Senate Race (Rasmussen)
(R) Bob Corker - 53%
(D) Harold Ford - 45%

Virginia Senate Race (Rasmussen)
(R) George Allen - 49%
(D) James Webb - 49%

Missouri Senate Race (Rasmussen)
(R) Jim Talent - 48%
(D) Claire McCaskill - 49%

Arizona Senate Race (AZD)
(R) Jon Kyl - 45.8%
(D) Jim Pederson - 41.3%

Pennsylvania Senate Race (MUHLC)
(D) Rick Santorum - 43%
(D) Bob Casey - 51%

Again, Clinton was in Arizona yesterday.  The poll was taken a few days before that -- so it should be interesting if that gave Pederson yet another bump.  If it did, then the Democrats might want to think about taking resources out of Ohio and Pennsylvania, and putting them into Arizona.

Montana poll numbers are not up yet.  As soon as they come in, I will put them up.  That race is close as well.

VA-Sen: Health takes center stage

The Associated Press ran a story at around midnight eastern time that reported on where George Allen and James Webb, the two Virginia Senate candidates, had been campaigning over the last few days.  As one candidate tried to win over the health vote, while the other went for the anti-health vote:

In Arlington, nearly 1,000 Webb supporters packed a ballroom for a fundraiser with actor Michael J. Fox and retired Gen. Wesley Clark.

...Allen shook hands with hundreds of workers leaving from the day shift at the giant Philip Morris Co. complex in Richmond.

This is all from the same story.   So on one hand, you have a Senate candidate fighting to support stem cell funding that could save lives, and the other Senate candidate posing for a photo-op in front of a company building that has helped end lives.

I am not insinuating that George Allen wants our lives to end -- although you have to admit it would make this blog entry more interesting if I did.

In the latest Zogby Poll released yesterday, Democrat James Webb had a 45% to 44% lead on incumbent Republican Senator George Allen.

VA-Sen: Other poll confirms bounce for Webb

A new CNN Poll confirms a Rasmussen poll that was leaked yesterday and published today that shows Democratic challenger Jim Webb leading Republican Senator George Allen.  Here is the CNN Poll:

Virginia Senate Race

(R) George Allen - 46%
(D) James Webb - 50%

(597 Likely Voters, sampling error of /-4)

As you can see, this race is still slightly within the margin of error -- but barely.  This is among likely voters.  But among all registered voters, Webb has a 48% to 46% lead.

George Allen has less than one week to dig up all the dirt he can on James Webb.  But typically when you find something on a candidate and voters instead sympathize with the other guy, as was the case when Allen dug through Webb's war book last week, then you probably don't want to try that tactic again.  My guess is that Allen is done shuffling through Webb's past.  All that stands between Webb and a U.S. Senate seat is a high conservative base turnout and a surprisingly depressed turnout in Northern Virginia.  However, the latter is unlikely. 

If I were Allen, I would get John McCain in there to campaign with me.  However, that would be ironic considering that McCain wrote a great review of Webb's book, which Allen said was sexually explicit -- therefore a contradiction.  If I were Webb, I would counter with Mark Warner and Governor Tom Kaine.

VA-Sen: Allen's nightmare has been confirmed by Rasmussen

Earlier today I reported on this blog about a poll that showed Democratic Senate challenger James Webb leading incumbent Republican Senator George Allen 48% to 43%, and among leaners by a 47% to 43% margin.  I was very skeptical about that poll at first because it was conducted for the DSCC.

But on Sunday night, the well-known Rasmussen polling company, who had Allen leading until this point, now has Webb ahead.  When "leaners" are included, the challenger's lead is outside the margin of error:

Virginia Senate Race

Likely Voters - Including Leaners (10/25 results)
(R) George Allen - 46% (50%)
(D) James Webb - 51% (48%)

Likely Voters - WIthout Leaners
(R) George Allen - 46%
(D) James Webb - 48%

In other words, almost all of the undecided voters are leaning towards challenger James Webb.

I don't want to overstate this, but this poll is probably the best political news that I have heard in my entire young life.  Please hear me out on this.  The Rasmussen poll shown above comes just days after the attacks by George Allen on James Webb's war book, which contained a few sexually explicit scenes that reflected life in certain parts of the world.  so, as according to GOP script, the Allen campaign was out in full force portraying Webb as anti-family values.  Conventional wisdom would have pointed to last week as marking the end of Webb's Senate hopes.  But instead, the poll tells a different story.  It tells the story of a new, much more mature electorate that has become immune to smears, and is no longer persuaded by twisted stunts of the kind that Allen pulled last week.  Voters are above all that.  They know what is happening.  They aren't as dumb as the Republican spin machine thinks they are.  For Senator Allen to pull what he pulled last week was an insult to the intelligence of all Virginia voters, especially at a time when thousands of U.S. soldiers are dying in Iraq.  Voters sniffed it out, and they appear to be voting for change next week.

Let this be a rule for all politicians in years to come.  If you play dirty games like George Allen, then your opponent will get a positive bounce in the polls.  If you discuss real issues, such as the safety of this country and and how to tackle corruption in our nation's Capitol, then you will earn the respect of voters.  Don't insult their intelligence.