A Virginia U.S. Senate poll conducted by between October 26th and October 29th was released today, and it showed incumbent Republican George Allen trailing Democratic challenger James Webb outside the margin of error:
Virginia Senate Race
(R) George Allen - 43% (D) James Webb - 48%
Survey of 811 likely voters Margin of error: /-3.5%
Among leaners, Webb leads Allen by four points, 47% to 43%.
When those questioned were asked to say who they voted for in 2000, 50% said Bush and 42% said Kerry. As the blog explains, this almost mirrors the official 2004 election results in the state of Virginia, which was Bush 54% and Kerry 46%.
Remember though, this was an internal poll conducted specifically for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee by an independent research group . Sometimes it is difficult to trust these internal polls. Nonetheless, the fact that it is outside the margin of error is encouraging.
Jim Webb will lose this race if he sits there and takes these new attacks on his character. If he responds immediately and turns this into a referendum on Allen's desperation to change the subject from Iraq, then the race is Webb's to take.
Until yesterday, the Virginia Senate race had been relatively dull compared to the fireworks taking place in Tennessee (racial attacks against Ford) and Missouri (Limbaugh making fun of Michael J. Fox). Then came George Allen's October surprise -- a war story that Democratic challenger James Webb wrote years back called that included some graphic sexual scenes. Republican George Allen this book underscores Webb's disrespect towards women. Webb says his book gives the reader a realistic glimpse of what it is like in certain parts of the third world that are in a constant state of war, and what impact that has on socioeconomic life. Though the book is about something noble, Allen has turned a few pages of it into a campaign issue that could destroy Webb's Senate hopes.
Like Ford in Tennessee, James Webb has to respond immediately if he plans on staying in this race. Here are some things he can do and say:
First and foremost, James Webb has to get John McCain to take a position. Senator McCain the following message on the book's cover: "James Webb's new novel paints a portrait of a modern Vietnam chargedwith hopes for the future but haunted by the ghosts of its war-tornpast." Both McCain and Webb served in Vietnam. It is likely that McCain would defend Webb in this instance, or else risk having a bad relationship with someone that he might work with in the Senate. So Webb needs to get McCain involved in this. McCain obviously has a reason to write that message on the book in the first place.
James Webb was a decorated military hero while George Allen was relaxing at a . George Allen dislikes the story because he is incapable of comprehending the realism contained in the book about certain parts of the world.
Webb's book is nothing compared to a book by Lynn Cheney, which included a sex scene between lesbians. To attack Webb without doing the same to Cheney's wife is hypocritical.
Ask why did George Allen wait until the last week and a half of the campaign to discuss this, even though he knew full well that the book had been out since 2001?
Lastly, George Allen has nothing to run on. Attacking his opponent about an old book is an attempt to make voters forget about Iraq. George Allen is both assaulting and insulting the intelligence of voters. He thinks Virginians only have a short-term memory, and that they will forget that Allen has 94% of the time. Webb is being attacked like this because Allen and his Republican Senate allies have no solution in Iraq, and are not gutsy enough to challenge the President on a war that has killed nearly 3,000 U.S. soldiers and cost nearly a half a trillion dollars.
Again, since time is of the essence, James Webb has to respond. This is his last chance. If I were him, I would take every interview he could, and make George Allen look insensitive, desperate and just plain old dumb for trying this tactic in the first place.
After his ads struck a chord in numerous races all over the country, especially in Missouri, former actor turned stem cell activist Michael J. Fox that he will be campaigning with Virginia Senate challenger James Webb on Tuesday:
Fox has agreed to appear at an Arlington fundraising rally Nov. 2with Democrat James Webb, Webb's campaign said Wednesday. Fox, who hasParkinson's disease, has appeared in gripping television ads forDemocratic Senate candidates in Maryland and Missouri. In each spot,Fox criticizes Republican candidates for opposing the expansion offederal funding for embryonic stem cell research and asks viewers toback Democrats who support such funding. His body shakes and rocks ashe speaks, providing graphic evidence of the disease's effects.
Allen campaign manager Dick Wadhams dismissed the significance ofthe planned Fox event, saying "It's not surprising that a Hollywoodmovie producer like James Webb would have a Hollywood actor campaignfor him."
No comment yet about this scheduled campaign stop from conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh, who Michael J. Fox of acting out the effects of his Parkinson's disease. With Michael J. Fox expected to make an ad for Webb, you can bet that the GOP-friendly host will have something to say. Strategically speaking, Democrats want him to vent about it because the over-the-top rhetoric would hurt the GOP.
The race in Virginia is much closer than the GOP would like. The latest daily rolling Rasmussen released today vindicates yesterday's by Los Angeles Times that shows James Webb gaining ground on George Allen:
Virginia Senate Race
(R) Goerge Allen - 49% (D) James Webb - 48%
Here is the rest of today's news in this race:
The has a column today about both candidates' ad blitz in the final two weeks.
The writes about the big donors for both candidates.
in Harrisonburg, VA writes about Gail Parker, this Senate race's third candidate.
Former Virginia Governor Douglas Wilder (D) James Webb -- as did Mark Warner and Tom Kaine.
The writes how James Webb is using his old military friends and heroes to make a difference in this campaign.
With most the attention focused on Tennessee, I am not surprised that this kind of thing crept up on us in Virginia. In three Virginia cities, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Jim Webb will be his last name on the final page of the electronic ballots:
DemocraticU.S. Senate nominee Jim Webb of Falls Church is one of severalcandidates whose full names have been cut off the final page of theelectronic ballot voters will use this year in Charlottesville, FallsChurch and Alexandria.
Electionofficials said it’s possible that some confusion may result when votersreach the summary page of the ballot but stressed that it will notcause votes to be cast incorrectly and that Webb’s full name appears onthe ballot’s first page, where voters choose for whom they vote.
...Webb’s name onthe summary page will be listed only as “James H. ‘Jim’†and RepublicanU.S. Sen. George Allen’s party affiliation also will not appear on thesummary page in the three cities using Hart InterCivic electronicvoting machines. Alexandria has 225 of the machines and Charlottesvillehas 72 already fully programmed for the Nov. 7 elections.
“Because ofspacing limitations on the summary page, candidates’ names aretruncated in some instances,†the signs to educate voters will state.
Yeah, let's confuse the heck out of people in three towns in which a large chunk of the population are senior citizens. It only determines the fate of the entire U.S. Senate. Great thinking guys!
If this race is decided by a few thousand votes, you can expect a court battle to erupt. And yes, this sort of ballot change CAN make a difference.
Don't get overly excited -- there are still two weeks to go. But in a released this morning by the Los Angeles Times, Virginia Democrat James Webb leads incumbent Republican George Allen:
Virginia Senate Race
(R) George Allen - 44% (D) James Webb - 47%
With Harold Ford's reluctant today that he did indeed attend a Superbowl party that was sponsored by Playboy, Tennessee might be a (I am not giving up on it though). So then the focus now centers squarely around this race in Virginia.
(Go to help James Webb in any way. The fate of the US Senate is in the balance.)
A new Mason-Dixon released on Monday night gives incumbent Senator George Allen (R-VA) a four-point advantage on Democratic challenger James Webb, barely within the margin of error:
Virginia Senate Race
(R) George Allen - 47% (D) James Webb - 43% (I) Gail Parker - 2%
Bradford Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research that the Macaca incident already ran its course:
“Allen has bounced off the bottom,†said J.Bradford Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon. “Voters have let someof the controversies run their course and they’re saying, 'thiselection is going to be about the Republican rule in Washington and thewar in Iraq.’ â€
In the same poll back in , Webb and Allen were even.
But an alarming eight percent in this latest poll were undecided, which is surprising because this race has been full of fireworks. Elections sparked with controversy tend to produce polarized opinions on both sides, with very few people in the middle. But there are a lot of undecided voters in this case, making it critical for both candidates to be on message these next few weeks.
If I were Democrat James Webb, I would focus entirely on foreign policy-related matters -- Iraq, Afghanistan and long-term solutions to win the war on terror. If you are going to go at George Allen, get him on those issues. But overall, Webb needs to stop talking about Allen's ethical lapses and outline his own agenda to undecided voters. Every voter that might switch sides because of Allen's racial issue already has done so. , which is what the Virginia Senate election will ultimately come down to, consider security among their top concerns. As the under Reagan, Webb should be able to tout his experience and bipartisanship on security-related matters.
But if James Webb allows Allen to turn this election into a culture war, then the incumbent will get reelected and Webb will have lost his opportunity. Webb needs to raise the stakes on Iraq. Expand on it. Put the Iraq war into a generational context by explaining how Senator Allen and President Bush have put our national security at risk by not making reality-based decisions -- at the same time as our military families have paid the price. Ask George Allen why he waited until the election cycle to finally suggest that some change in Iraq might be needed? Webb should add that when you are fighting a war against terrorism, political expediency should never trump reality. Allen, like Bush, has ignored reality -- and that is why it is time for a change. We need our military to be in the best possible position to respond anywhere in the world, as opposed to being bogged down in one country. Webb has two weeks to drive home this message.
With just two weeks until the vote, the Virginia Senate race may hinge on the 1.9 million in the state, which as of late have been trending Democrat. Another important factor is the impact that each Virginia newspaper has on all its readers.
Today, the conservative Richmond Times Dispatch George Allen, as expected. But part of their justification for doing so raises the eyebrows of anyone that has ever looked at Allen's voting record. This is a portion of the newspaper's justification:
To achieve energy independence, he offers an integrated program ofconservation, technological innovation, and expanded access to domesticpetroleum -- and ranks energy independence as one of the nation'shighest priorities.
George Allen for conservation and energy independence? You have to be kidding me! When you fact check to see whether Allen's alleged support of energy independence is true, you get some troubling :
In June of 2005, Allen voted NO on reducing foreign oil consumption by 40% by the year 2025.
In June of 2003, Allen voted NO on putting pressure on the auto industry to get 100,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles by 2010.
And it doesn't end there. Here are some more votes:
Voted NO on the for low-income households.
Voted NO on the Act.
However, in July of 2005 he did vote YES on a bill that gave $8.5 billion in for big oil.
The name "George Allen" and the words "conservation" and "energy independence" should never be used in the same sentence.
Polls show that the Virginia Senate race between Republican incumbent George Allen and Democratic challenger James Webb is within the margin of error. Both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush campaigned in the state yesterday -- not to win votes, but to bring in new money into what has been a costly race just two and a half weeks before Virginians could determine the fate of the U.S. Senate.
George W. Bush and Bill Clinton traveled down to Virginia on Thursday afternoon to campaign for each of their party's Senate candidates. However, this move was probably counter-productive in terms of winning over new voters. President Bush's in the state of Virginia stands at 39%, and 59% disapprove of the way he is handling his job. On the flip-side, Bill Clinton is not liked among Virginians either. Even during Clinton's 1996 landslide victory, sided with the other candidate.
In other words, neither campaign was aiming to win over swing voters. They were, however, trying to fundraise. With the money race , it was precisely what the two candidates needed. Like either of the presidents or not, both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush can definitely fire up the bases of both parties -- enough to bring in the necessary dollars for the two and a half week stretch run.
During the Bush and Clinton visits, the number one issue was :
In the speech to Allen supporters, Bush saidthe best way to protect Americans is to stay on the offensive. "That'swhy they're the party of cut and run," Bush said. "That's why theUnited States will stand with our allies in Iraq."
Clinton, speaking later in the evening, said the public is weary ofthe Iraq politics Bush used successfully in 2004. Republicans "won twoelections by skin-teeth by scaring people and dividing them up. But youcan only run a dog through the same path so many times," Clinton said."It's kind of mangy dog right now."
"Look at Jim Webb. Does he look to you like a cut-and-run kind of guy?" he said.
Allen appeared with Bush even as he has nuanced his position on Iraqin recent weeks. Allen has steadfastly backed Bush on the war, but whenasked by reporters after Bush departed the fundraiser whether he stillshares the president's hard line, Allen was evasive.
"I have my position based on my own assessment of Iraq," Allen said.
Polls show that the race will go right down to the wire. In the latest released yesterday puts James Webb within three points:
Virginia Senate Race
(R) George Allen - 50% (D) James Webb - 47%
I have said on this blog over and over that the battle for the control of the Senate will come down to four races: Tennessee, Missouri, New Jersey, and Virginia. The Democrats must win three of the four to win majority. The progressives have the enthusiasm this year, but the big-dollar GOP campaign machine has the voter turnout resources to get the job done.
Piles of money from big GOP donors will be flowing into the Allen Campaign war chest over the next week. If George Allen prevails on the 7th of November, he will owe a lot of favors. Thus far, according to the campaign disclosure site , 20% of all donations to the Allen Campaign have come from political action committees. By contrast, 90% of the money going to Democratic challenger James Webb have come from individual donors. You can guess who lobbyists want to win this race.
All of a sudden, the Virginia Senate race is now within the margin of error. A released on Sunday proves that it will ultimately come down to the ground games of each campaign:
Washington Post Poll (1,004 likely Virginia voters -- October 10 - 12)
(R) George Allen - 49% (D) James Webb - 47% (I) Gail Parker - 2%
Most interestingly, the race is especially divided along geographical lines. In Northern Virginia, 56% support Webb and only 42% support Allen; while in Southern Virginia, 52% support Allen and 43% are for Webb. A acknowledges Northern Virginia's impact:
Northern Virginians are increasingly Democratic -- more distrustful ofthe war in Iraq and the president and more supportive of Webb than therest of the state, according to the poll. The region is the economicengine of the commonwealth and the source of much of its growth, and onmany issues, its urbanizing and diverse population seems to agree morewith the rest of the nation and less with those who live south of theRappahannock River.
says James Webb will make Iraq the central focus of his campaign in the last three weeks.
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