Before I get into what I mean by the title, here is a Los Angeles Times that gives Bob Corker a lead outside the margin of error against Democrat Harold Ford:
Tennessee Senate Race
(R) Bob Corker - 49% (D) Harold Ford - 44%
Now to the title. The GOP's racially-driven that attacks Harold Ford brought into play the stereotype that white fathers have to keep their daughters away from sexually active black men like Harold Ford. So when Bob Corker feels the pressure to remove the ad, he can say, "Guys, it's not my ad." Technically, that is true. The Republican National Committee put it on. So Bob Corker's condemning of the ad after it began running serves two advantages: 1) he can wipe his hands clean; and 2) the ad won't have to be pulled because it's not his decision.
This is exactly what took place in 2004. President Bush half-heartedly condemned the swift boat attack again John Kerry, even though Karl Rove's Republican friends in Texas put it on. In the end, the ads kept on running, and it made a difference.
The moral of the story is if you want to attack your opponent's character, then have others like RNC Chairman do it for you. Doing it the coward way is the best way.
I have been blogging on this web site ever since 2004. Many of you visited then, and still read my content today. Thank you. All of us went through such a painful election loss together. If only the Buckeye state had been a few votes different, neither John Roberts nor Samuel Alito would be in the Supreme Court today. The court would be progressive. We would have no warrantless wiretaps, no repealing of habeas corpus, no John Bolton at the UN, no new subsidies for oil companies, and possibly no U.S. troops in Iraq at the moment.
After the 2004 election, as was the case after 2000, we looked back and told ourselves "if only we had done 'X', we would have won." If all of you want to complain about the same thing three weeks from now, then be my guest. But I don't.
We know for a fact that the race for Senate majority will come down to one state: Tennessee. All we need to do is win that race and we will have the Senate majority to properly apply the necessary check on the Executive Branch -- assuming we win the House also, as we are expected to do. So if we know that a win in Tennessee will change the outcome of history between 2006 and 2008, then we have a choice: are we going to just sit here and talk about it, or are we going to take action?
Tennessee is where it will all happen on election night. Harold Ford has the chance to become the first southern African-American senator since reconstruction. So it is only ironic that the GOP is trying to prevent that from happening by airing a with less than two weeks to go.
I have never begged for money in my life, but I have to in this situation. This money will not go to me, but rather to the . My generation needs this victory more than any other. Thirty years from now, when my generation takes over the reigns in this country, I don't want us to face an impossible task. It doesn't need to be that way. All we need is ONE race, just one -- and that is Tennessee.
So please, just $5, $10 or as much as you can generously give to the . If you donate to the DNSC, they will disperse the money as they please. But if you donate straight to the Ford Campaign, you will be assured that the money will be used to help bolster his chances in the final 13 days.
Again, I don't like to beg -- so I'll return to analyzing the election. Sorry for the demanding post. I just want my country back.
With both candidates in East Tennessee today, statistically speaking, the Tennessee Senate race is a dead heat, according to the latest MSNBC :
Tennessee Senate Race
(R) Bob Corker - 45% (D) Harold Ford - 43%
But realistically speaking, Harold Ford has a lot of ground that he must gain between now and November 7th. The so called "black tax" in southern states like Tennessee can spell doom for black candidates, as by the Christian Science Monitor:
The racial dimension of the Ford-Corker contest loomslarge. Pollsters speak of a race effect on surveys- that is, shave offa few percentage points from the black candidate's total, since somewhite voters tell pollsters what they think they want to hear, thatthey're willing to vote for a black candidate when in reality they'renot.
One Republican activist in Tennessee, who asked not tobe identified, says he believes the racial aspect will be a wash inthis race: Some whites won't vote for a black man, but turnout in theblack community, 16 percent of the electorate, will be higher thanusual.
So the question then becomes whether or not the so called "black tax" that consists of white southerners refusing to vote for Ford because he is black will end up trumping the high black turnout? We will find out in two weeks.
Pollsters and all political analysts seem to that as of today the race for U.S. Senate majority will probably come down to Virginia and Tennessee. The Democrats must win at least one of those two races:
``Control of the Senate is going to come down to Tennessee andVirginia,'' said Brad Coker, the pollster for Mason-Dixon Polling &Research Inc. who conducted the surveys for McClatchy-MSNBC in eightstates, as well as one in Virginia for several major newspapers there.
Within the last two weeks, the GOP has been focusing a lot of their campaign resources on this race. At the same time, the campaign rhetoric has been heating up (go figure!). Late last week, the national Republican Party released a television that accused Ford of having connections to Playboy. Under pressure, Corker finally condemned the ad and requested that it be pulled, but not after the damage had been done. A Ford Campaign spokesman Corker's people of being behind it:
"On one side of the campaign office,Corker sends out a press release that says we don't like this ad, andthe other side of the press office, the person stands up and says thisad stays up. I think Tennesseans understand that, I think they knowwhat that is. It's not true," Lee said.
The Ford Campaign is trying to re-shift the focus toward the central issue of Iraq. Many analysts admit that Ford has something going for him on that matter. Ford and Virginia Senate candidate James Webb are pretty much the only two Democrats that have specifically outlined their proposals for Iraq. Ford is calling for the country to be divided up, giving each of the three regions a large degree of :
“Give each regional autonomy and help to create a central governmentwith authority over the borders and the ability to divide the oilrevenue up equitably,†Ford said in his Oct. 10 debate with Corker.
Agree with the proposal or not, it is still a specific plan, which Republican Bob Corker has yet to formulate. All of this comes as 87 U.S. soldiers have been so far this month in Iraq, on pace to be the deadliest month since the war began three and a half years ago.
We all remember the type of strategy that the GOP invoked against Max Cleland in 2002 and John Kerry in 2004. We also remember the smears by the Bush Campaign in South Carolina against John McCain in 2000. What is happening in this year's Tennessee Senate race is far worse. What we have is a combination sleazy push polling, the smearing of a family and false sex allegations -- the grand trifecta! It's as if the Corker Campaign is afraid to address the most important issue: our strategy in Iraq.
First, let's start with the push polling. As early as late last month, it became known that the Republicans were conducting push polling down in Tennessee in an effort to smear Ford. If you don't know what push polling means, it's when a campaign worker disguises as a pollster and calls undecided voters and asks questions in order to make a point -- like, "If you knew that 'Candidate A' was a liar and hurt children, would you vote for that candidate?" That sort of thing. The Corker Campaign is using , according to a primary source:
The Corker camp has sunk even lower as they are now using unethical push polling to lie about Congressman Ford and his family.
How do I know? Simple. They called my dad.
During this call, my dad informs me that the person that worked for Corker asked him several questions like the ones below:
"Asyou may know, Harold Ford Jr.'s family has a long record of being introuble with the law. Would this make you more or less likely or nodifference in voting for Harold Ford Jr.?"
"As you mayknow, Harold Ford Jr.'s family has a record of committing voter fraud.Would this make you more or less likely or no difference in voting forHarold Ford Jr.?"
But push polling is just one example of the sleazy campaign that Corker is running. A few weeks ago, Corker launched a personal attack against Ford's family. He accused Ford's family of engaging in . Clearly, Corker is trying to make this race about Ford's father, not the actual Democratic candidate himself.
Lastly, and the most outrageous, the Republicans released an ad that Ford a "churchgoer by day and playboy by night." There is even a Republican front group called , which portrays the Democrat as someone that "parties with playboy playmates."
Again, we have a war going on in Iraq. People are dying. A half a trillion dollars has been spent. And the Tennessee race has turned into this?
We have got to help Harold Ford raise money for television ads so he can speak out against this Republican attacks, and speak in favor of a REAL exit strategy in Iraq. I strongly urge all of you to consider $5, $10 or even $15 to the Ford campaign. We can't sit around and do nothing when the political debate drops to an all-time low.
The attacks this week against Tennessee Democratic candidate Harold Ford have been some of the ugliest in the nation during this campaign season.
The race for the open Tennessee Senate seat between Republican Bob Corker and Democrat Harold Ford is quite close. In the latest , Ford holds a two-point advantage:
Tennessee Senate Race
(R) Bob Corker - 46% (D) Harold Ford - 48%
From the very beginning, the Corker strategy has been to go after Harold Ford's family by labeling them as a . But as of late, Ford has been responding to those personal attacks. Last debate, the Republican tried the same smear, but Ford was there to . Still, Corker didn't give up. A few days ago, Bob Corker launched another ad that attacked the political experience of Ford's family.
Enough was enough. Ford had to draw a line in the sand and return the campaign to a real debate about issues that affect Tennessee voters. So yesterday Harold Ford showed up at a Bob Corker event, and the two went face-to-face in the parking lot. A local Tennessee news station has the . Here is the partial :
Ford, who was speaking with reporters, spotted Corker in the parkinglot and began walking toward him. Ford told Corker that he wanted todebate him on the Iraq war, then mentioned Ford's plan to partitionIraq into three regions.
But then Corker stopped him and saidhe had come to talk about ethics. Corker called Ford's visit to thenews conference "a true sign of desperation."
Ford replied, "Icould never find you...." Corker said he was in Jackson, northeast ofMemphis, on Thursday night, but Ford brought the conversation back toIraq.
"Tell me, what do you think about this Iraq thing?" Fordasked. "I know you're here to talk about my family. I thought you madea promise right after ..."
"No, no, no. I'm here to talk about you, and this race," Corker said before walking away.
The Republicans need this race, and Ford knows it. The Democrat has been the victim of vicious attacks all week long. The National Republican Senatorial Committee rumored that Harold Ford was having a with a Georgetown sophomore, and that he went to a Playboy Superbowl party. Under pressure, Corker finally his party to pull the ad -- but not after the damage had been done.
Again, like Ford asked, what about the war in Iraq? Why are we talking about Ford's family? Why is a Playboy Superbowl Party -- which any single guy would go to if invited -- more important than the war in Iraq? Where are our priorities? The Republican Party should know better.
If Tennessee voters vote on the issues, then Harold Ford will win -- it's as simple as that. So much has gone wrong in this country because the Republicans have a majority of Congress, and they supply Bush with an automatic rubber stamp of everything he wants. Voters are aware of the issues. The only way for the Republicans to win is to play these diversion games with Ford's family -- and it insults the intelligence of voters that are fed up with the direction of the country.
As you might agree, this is quite surprising. The most recent USA Today/Gallup of likely Tennessee voters put Ford ahead of Corker by five points. It will be interesting to see whether or not the next poll vindicates this latest WSJ survey.
Many who have been following these races very closely were surprised when Ramussen Reports polling company put Tennessee into the "Leans Democrat" column. Well within the last few days, Rasmussen switched it back to "Toss-up". A new gives Democrat Harold Ford the lead, but only slightly:
Tennessee Senate
(R) Bob Corker - 46% (D) Harold Ford - 48%
But Ford does better among voters that are less likely to change their minds:
Ford also has an edge with the most committed voters. Voters who saythere's little chance they will change their minds favor him 40% to 38%.
As is the case with most other close races across the country, the Republicans will win of they can . The Democrats will win if their nationwide enthusiasm can trump the GOP's organized (voter demographic technology).
The conservative that a Harold Ford victory would be a positive. Being the centrist that he is, Ford would likely help foster an environment of increased cooperation between parties -- something we have not seen in today's era of hyper-partisanship.
All you obsessive polling freaks out there (like myself, I'll admit) should not get too wound up on surveys unless they are specifically given to "likely voters", not just "registered voters" or "adults".
In any Congressional mid-term election, it comes down to political base excitement, and which side is looking forward the most to doing the grunt work. If there was anything I learned from 2002 -- the first mid-term election that I had ever watched closely -- it was that excitement within a particular voting base can lead to that extra edge needed to cause a major shift in House and Senate seats.
spelled out perfectly the difference between registered voters and likely voters, just four weeks before we all head to the polls:
Among the bigger pool of registered voters, Democrats led Republicansby 16 points on the generic ballot, 54 percent to 38 percent. But amonglikely voters, the lead was 21 points, 58 percent to 37 percent. Thelarger Democratic lead among likely voters shows the problemRepublicans are having with motivating their base this year.
What the Republicans need more than ever is something that will light a fire under their base. If I were them, I would be scaring voters about the future Democratic majority possibly favoring comprehensive immigration reform -- or "amnesty" as the Republicans call it. With the exception of the Tennessee Senate race, that strategy trick might work in the Midwest. I brought up Tennessee as the exception because Republican Senate candidate Bob Corker might look like a hypocrite for using illegal immigration as a wedge issue when some time ago he . But other than that, the GOP could use illegal immigration and the North Korea as a way to scare voters before they head to the polls.
The Democrats must continue to frame the debate around corruption and dishonesty on the part of the ruling Republican majority. Whether it was dishonesty about why we went into Iraq, or the dishonest cover-ups of the Foley and Abramoff scandals, they are the perfect example of how closed government operates. If in the final four weeks this election becomes a debate between open and closed government, then the Democrats will win. That is exactly the strategy they should pursue.
Remember that (D) will square off against (R) in about 30 minutes in their televised debate. The two are running for the open Senate seat in Tennessee, which will be vacated by Majority Leader Bill Frist. It will be aired on C-Span television and .
Here are the :
Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. and former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corkerwill debate from 7:00-8:00 p.m. at WREG television studios in Memphis. The debate will be held in the studio before a live audience.
The debate will be hosted by WREG-TV, The Commercial Appeal, MPACTMemphis, Comcast Cable, and the Memphis Urban League YoungProfessionals.
Once it begins, Watch it Live on .
The latest gives Harold Ford a 50% to 45% lead on Corker.
If they can keep up the momentum, the Democrats have a 50/50 shot of taking back majority in the Senate, says USA Today. Today, the newspaper polling company released a whole slate of , which show the Democrats on the verge of possibly taking the Senate:
(R) Jim Talent - 45% (D) Claire McCaskill - 48%
(D) Bob Menendez - 46% (R) Thomas Kean Jr. - 43%
(R) Lincoln Chafee - 39% (D) Sheldon Whitehouse - 50%
(D) Harold Ford - 50% (R) Bob Corker - 45%
(R) George Allen - 48% (D) James Webb - 45%
A few things here. If George Allen of Virginia wins, then the Democrats must win the rest of these races if they are to take back majority. Remember, the Dems need 51 seats, not 50 seats. If they get 50, then Vice President (President of the Senate) Dick Cheney can cast the tie-breaking vote. So 51 is the magic number. All that you need to know is the Democrats can afford to lose one out of these five races and still take majority.
If you are wondering about the , a poll puts Republican incumbent Jon Kyl out in front by six -- slightly outside the margin of error. Because the Democrats want to consolidate monetary efforts to try and win in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, the Democratic Senate Committee, led by Chuck Schumer, has announced that they will reduce Democratic challenger Jim Pederson's war chest of money . It's a signal that the Dems are already conceding the Arizona Senate race to Jon Kyl. In other words, they feel that Virginia is more winnable than Arizona. Even more significantly, it underscores the lack of an anti-incumbent sentiment in the Southwest, as Jon Kyl has done a fine job of distancing himself from the Washington scandals. However, the Republican's lead is only six points. A lot can happen in a month's time. And Jim Pederson is a quality candidate.
Recent Comments