The Blue State

Post-Indiana Clinton fundraising numbers not good

Compare this to the $10 million she raised after she won Pennsylvania.  This is a sign that even her supporters have come to grips with the fact that she's done:

Clinton had been increasingly relying on Internet donations this springfrom new and small-amount contributors; the day after she won the April22 Pennsylvania primary, the campaign brought in a record $10 milliononline. But Hassan Nemazee, one of Clinton's national finance chairmen,put the amount she collected online in the 24 hours after the Indianaand North Carolina primaries at only "$1 million-plus."

Nonetheless, she presses on until at least early June.

Someone who loans her campaign millions isn't a working class hero

As articulated by Mike Lupica of the NY Daily News:

She plods ahead now, only in the race because she won Indiana  by the size of a Knicks  crowd, and all Hillary Clinton  has left is giving people another month of reasons not to vote for the black guy.

She thinks she still has that going for her, along with the cockeyednotion that somebody who can loan herself more than $11 million to keeprunning for President is more of a working-class hero than Norma Rae.

Nonetheless, the campaign continues.  She will win West Virginia on Tuesday.  One week later, she will win Kentucky and lose Oregon.  She may win Puerto Rico.  And then he will win Montana and South Dakota.  Then superdelegates will endorse.

Clinton superdelegate asks for Obama's autograph

During a House vote, Barack Obama, the likely Democratic nominee, strode into the chambers and spoke to a number of superdelegates, including some that already backed Clinton.

The Hill:

“I wanted to see what's going on over here,” Obama, wearing a broadsmile, told reporters. “I hear there's a lot of action on this side.”

Hespoke to uncommitted superdelegates as well as supporters of his rivalSen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) He was also seen speaking toMajority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), who is neutral in the race. And hetalked at length to Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), an uncommittedsuperdelegate.

The Democratic frontrunner spoke with Clintonsupporters Reps. John Murtha (Pa.) and Bill Pascrell (N.J.), as well asReps. Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and John Spratt (S.C.), who are bothuncommitted.

Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.), a Clinton supporter,got Obama to sign a copy of today’s New York Daily News with theheadline: “It’s His Party.”

Ouch!  Compare that to yesterday when many decided to stay on the sidelines after being asked by Hillary to meet with her.

To Obama supporters: Everything will be fine

The Democratic race for the presidency is coming to an end.  Over the next few days, a flood of super delegates are poised to go Obama's way.  At the moment, Obama needs just 180 delegates to reach the 2,025 mark, thus securing the nomination.  Sure, Hillary did say today that the nominee must actually get 2,210.  Even though that is technically incorrect, and yet another example of political positioning by the Clinton family, maybe the idea of her staying in the race could work to Obama's benefit.

West Virginia is scheduled to vote this next Tuesday, and Clinton will coast to an easy win there.  Just think, how would it look if Obama lost to someone who had already dropped out of the race?  How about Kentucky one week later?  She will win that too.  If she drops out and still wins those contests, the media will gossip, "He is the Democratic nominee and his own party is abandoning him."  It would make him look terrible.  So in the end, maybe Hillary should stay in until at least May 21st, the morning after Kentucky and Oregon voters head to the polls.  Or, Clinton could wait until after June 4th, meaning the Democrats would have campaigned in all 50 states before this thing was wrapped up.  By campaigning in every state, Obama and Clinton have helped register a record number of Democrats, thus helping the party locally in those areas.

The only thing we ask from Senator Clinton is for her to put her kitchen sink strategy to bed, and only focus on her vision for the country.  If she cares about the party, she cannot attack Obama as viciously as she has.  So stay in.  Help strike a deal so seat the delegates from Florida and Michigan at the convention.  Then bow out.

Obama is now the nominee.  Hillary put up a great fight.  If Hillary and her surrogates tone down their attacks a bit, we should even encourage them to stay in the race so that when she departments she does it in a way that brings the party together, positioning itself for the contest versus McCain this November.

What a night in politics

Thankfully I only worked until 5 PM (Pacific time) so I didn't miss any of it.  This truly was one of the most exciting nights in politics I have ever experienced.  Going into Tuesday's contests, I thought Obama's victory in North Carolina would be about equal to that of Hillary Clinton's near-certain victory in Indiana -- at least six points on both fronts.  I was wrong.  Obama landed a comfortable victory in North Carolina, and brought us to the edge of our seats for the long, drawn out contest in Indiana.  Clinton pulled it out, barely.

By the end of the night, Obama went from being pushed against a fence to the certain nominee.  With Clinton about to get out of the race (fingers crossed on that one), Obama will be the target of GOP attacks from now until November.  If Hillary accomplished one good thing this race, it was that she helped get the Jeremiah Wright scandal out front and center now, as opposed to letting the Republicans do it just weeks before the election.

What a night.  And so a new race is about to begin -- again, assuming Clinton drops out.  Yes, assuming.

ELECTION NIGHT THREAD

Voters in North Carolina and Indiana have a stake in this race tonight.  Use this thread to weigh in as it unfolds, and comment with other Blue Staters.  Which candidate came out best?  And how long will this race last?

• UPDATE (11:59 PM ET): lol Anderson Cooper just called John King the "Rainman of politics."  Ouch.  Well, that ends this thread, since it is about to expire.  I'll post more updated on another thread.
• UPDATE (11:50 PM ET): Obama could win this.  Gary County is the only one remaining, and the margin is below 20,000 votes.
• UPDATE (11:13 PM ET): In North Carolina, Obama nets about 11 delegates, and in Indiana Hillary nets roughly four.  That means Obama made up what he lost in Pennsylvania.  This race is over.
• UPDATE (10:15 PM ET): It looks like Clinton will hold on.  She is now up by 41,000 votes, after being ahead only 38,000 about 20 minutes ago.  According to an NBC reporter, it is like "schizophrenia" inside the Hillary camp.
• UPDATE (10:07 PM ET): An interesting stat to note as we wait for the results in Indiana.  In South Bend, Obama leads by around 11 points.  That is strange.  It's a heavily populated Catholic area, which should have gone to Clinton.  Even though Notre Dame is there, it still was expected to be in the Clinton category.  And there's more to be counted there.
• UPDATE (9:59 PM ET): The voter ID law in Indiana might have hurt Clinton because, as Time Magazine writes on their web site, some senior citizens don't drive and therefore don't carry around photo ID.  12 nuns were turned away from a polling station in Indiana today.
• UPDATE (9:44 PM ET): It looks like the Obama people are saying they will come up roughly 15,000 to 10,000 votes short of catching Hillary in Indiana.  Either way, a big night for Obama.
• UPDATE (9:35 PM ET): In reaction to Obama's speech, one word: "WOW!"  And in Indiana, it's now 52% to 48%, Hillary slightly in the lead.
• UPDATE (9:31 PM ET): Obama is really going populist in his message.  He is talking about trust in the public, and taking the humble route of admitting that he is an imperfect candidate.
• UPDATE (9:12 PM ET): Obama is speaking!
• UPDATE (9:11 PM ET): Wow!  Hillary spinners are going to have a difficult time with this.
• UPDATE (8:58 PM ET): It's now down to six points in Indiana.  Though he will probably still lose, this is still pretty huge.  It ensures Obama will pick up more pledged delegates tonight, and erase almost all that Clinton gained in Pennsylvania.
• UPDATE (8:39 PM ET): While CBS has called Indiana for Clinton, and although she may indeed come out the winner there, it is getting closer.  Stay tuned.
• Update (8:30 PM ET): Obama is trouncing Hillary in North Carolina.  This is almost as bad for Clinton as the contest in Washington state.  If this keeps up, no matter if Hillary wins Indiana, many delegates are going to jump to Obama's side.

What John and Elizabeth like and dislike about the two candidates

In an exclusive interview with People Magazine, John and Elizabeth Edwards revealed their true feelings about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama:

In their first joint interview since John, the Democratic former senatorand 2004 vice presidential nominee, dropped out of the race in January,the couple named what they liked and disliked about each of theremaining Democrats – and Mrs. Edwards didn't hesitate: "I likeHillary's health care plan."

What doesn't she like about the senator from New York and former first lady? "The lobbyist money," she adds.

On Obama, she says: "The fact that he has motivated so many young people to be involved, I think is fantastic."

But, she adds: "I don't like his health care plan or his advertising on health care, which I think is misleading."

Though, the two disagreed over whether it would be more symbolic to have an African-American or woman as president:

But he cited two things he likes about the charismatic young senatorfrom Illinois: "One is, I think he really does want to bring aboutserious change and a different way of doing things. And secondly, Ithink it's a great symbolic thing to have an African-American who couldbe president."

Suddenly, Elizabeth jumped in:

At that, Mrs. Edwards rolled her eyes and, gripping the arms of herkitchen chair with some exaggeration, seemed about to lunge from herseat. "What about the great symbolic thing about a woman ..."

"It's important. It's important," her husband said. "I know it."

The full interview will be out on news stands this Friday.  In summary, the the couple will decline to endorse a candidate this primary season.  Had they stayed in the race all the way, it could have forced a brokered convention.

Final day: Indiana polling roundup

This is it.  Just about every poll gives Hillary Clinton the lead in Indiana.  It may be close though, as reports of early voting show heavy turnout in the northwest, mostly considered an Obama stronghold.  Ultimately, Clinton will probably win that race.  The question is how close will it be?  Also, which candidate will finish with more delegates from both contests tomorrow?

Suffolk University:

49% - Hillary Clinton
43% - Barack Obama

American Research Group:

53% - Hillary Clinton
45% - Barack Obama

ARG also notes that Barack Obama leads by eight in North Carolina, meaning he is poised to finish the night with more pledged delegates.  However, an Insider Advantage poll shows the race a lot closer in North Carolina.  OK, now back to Indiana.

Zogby:

44% - Barack Obama
42% - Hillary Clinton

The Zogby web site claims they have it right.  However, they acknowledge that undecided voters lean Hillary's direction:

While Obama holds a small edge in Indiana, Clintonappears to hold at least a small advantage among those who are yetundecided. Among those undecided Indiana voters who said they wereleaning toward one candidate or the other, Clinton held an edge. Italso remains unclear what impact, if any, the new Indiana requirementthat voters show identification before casting ballots will have on thecontest.

It appears that even if Obama wins both contests tomorrow (though it is likely they will split), Hillary will stay in it.  This fight will stretch through at least June 3rd.

Host to Hillary: Name one economist that agrees with you

On the issue of the gas tax repeal, she could not name one.  Oh and by the way, did you know that economists are elitist?:

This morning, George Stephanopoulos began his televised interviewwith Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton by asking if she could name asingle economist who supported her plan for a gas-tax suspension.

Mrs. Clinton did not. “I’m not going to put in my lot witheconomists,” she said on the ABC program “This Week.” A few momentslater, she added, “Elite opinion is always on the side of doing thingsthat really disadvantages the vast majority of Americans.”

Or, maybe your proposal just isn't practical.  If worldwide demand is what is driving up oil prices, then increasing demand even more by eliminating the gas tax for a short period of time won't help either.

Hillary's convention takeover?

Those who have power tend not to relinquish it:

Hillary Clinton's campaign has a secret weapon to build its delegatecount, but her top strategists say privately that any attempt to deployit would require a sharp (and by no means inevitable) shift in thepolitical climate within Democratic circles by the end of this month.

With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party's 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton,her backers could -- when the committee meets at the end of this month-- try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-memberFlorida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would giveClinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according toClinton campaign operatives. The Obama campaign has declined to give anestimate.

Using the Rules and Bylaws Committee to force the seating of twopro-Hillary delegations would provoke a massive outcry from Obamaforces. Such a strategy would, additionally, face at least two othermajor hurdles, and could only be attempted, according to sources in theClinton camp, under specific circumstances:

With the Clinton family, anything is possible.  Though, super delegates should realize that such a move would reward two states that violated the DNC rules -- one of which did not even have Obama's name on the ballot.  It would go against the will of the voters in all the other states, and possibly hurt turnout in November, especially among African-American voters.