The Blue State

After Tuesday comes the month-long finale

Following Tuesday's races in North Carolina and Indiana, we will near the end of our primary calendar.  Just six contests remain, which will take place in less than one month.  When we wake up on the morning of June 4th, all the pledged delegates will have been decided, and the super delegates will have to make a decision.

If Hillary survives Indiana in two days, she has an opportunity to win a few more.  Here is a look at the coming primary schedule:

• May 13th: West Virginia (28 pledged delegates and 11 super delegates).  Clinton is ahead there in the polls, even though Obama is the favorite among state party activists.
• May 20th: Kentucky (51 pledged and 9 super delegates) and Oregon (52 pledged and 13 super).  Clinton is poised for a landslide victory in Kentucky.  Meanwhile, in Oregon, Obama has a huge lead among just about all social demographics, including white voters.  In a new Rasmussen poll, he leads Clinton in Oregon 51% to 39%.
• June 1st: Puerto Rico (55 pledged and 8 super).  This race is actually huge.  There are more pledged delegates up for grabs in Puerto Rico than any other contest after North Carolina.  There has not been any polling there since early last month.
• June 3rd: Montana (16 pledged and 9 super) and South Dakota (15 pledged and 8 super).  It is likely that Obama will win there because it is a caucus, stemming from strong support in Missoula at the University of Montana.  In South Dakota, Obama was ahead in the last poll by a comfortable margin.  Also, many of Obama's top advisers used to work for Tom Daschle.  So the campaign has deep roots in that state.

Worst case scenario for Obama, Hillary trounces him in West Virginia, destroys Obama in Kentucky and narrowly loses in Oregon -- giving her the needed momentum to win Puerto Rico.  If she wins Puerto Rico, maybe she could squeak out a win in Montana.  South Dakota will be tougher for her.  Then she could fight on to the convention.

Best case for Obama, he keeps it close in West Virginia, loses in Kentucky but wins handedly in Oregon.  He then wins in Puerto Rico, setting him up to sweep the June 3rd contests, thus giving super delegates little reason to not jump aboard the Obama bandwagon.

Unlike April, when we had to wait and wait for the Pennsylvania contest, there will be elections every week in June (with the exception of the last Tuesday).  I know this has been a long primary season.  But now that we are nearing an end, at least try to enjoy it.

Obama not gaining ground in Indiana

I hate to be the supplier of bad news for Obama fans, but his road ahead in Indiana is looking as steep as it's ever been.  Rasmussen, one of the most reliable polling firms this campaign season, reports that Clinton has a 5-point lead in Indiana, 46% to Obama's 41%.  In North Carolina, according to Mason-Dixon polling, Obama's double-digit lead has been cut in half.  And in another North Carolina poll, Clinton leads by two.

Back to Indiana, since that is where the action will be on election night.  On the today show this morning, Michelle Obama appeared to plead with the media to forget the whole Jeremiah Wright soap opera:

"We hear time and time again voters are tired of this," Michelle Obama said in an interview the couple gave to NBC's "Today" show.

"They don't want to hear about this division, they want to know whatare we going to do to move beyond these issues," she said. "And whatmade me feel proud of Barack in this situation is that he is trying tomove us as a nation beyond these conversations that divide."

Whether voters are tired of it or not, the reality is that the media is fixated on it.  Instead of questioning Clinton's personal problems (and there are a lot of them), Obama is facing all this questions and is constantly on the defensive.  He has less than five days to try and change what the media is talking about, or else he will lose Indiana.  Right now, all the undecided voters in both races, Indiana and North Carolina, are more likely to second-guess Obama.  The Obama Campaign needs to give those undecided voters a reason to second-guess Clinton.

Like her or not, Clinton is a fighter.  It will also take a fighter to beat her.  Obama needs to get moving!

It's close in Indiana

Give Hillary Clinton the slight edge in Indiana, following her Pennsylvania win and the media's obsession with Reverand Wright.  Here are two new polls.

Public Policy Polling:

50% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

Howey-Gauge:

46% - Hillary Clinton
46% - Barack Obama

With one week to go, Obama is on the verge of losing Indiana.  He needs to campaign hard there.  If he wins both contests (North Carolina and Indiana), the power-players in the Democratic Party will put more pressure on the super delegates to endorse.  If they split, however, Obama is just asking for a long battle into the summer.  Remember, Kentucky and West Virginia, two sure Clinton states, have yet to vote.  For Obama, he has Oregon and South Dakota that will go for him.  Being that neither candidate will pull off a surprise win in any of those states, neither candidate has a reason to drop out.  Indiana is what Obama needs to win to rally the Democratic Party around him.

Where has the real campaign news gone?

Our economy is in the tank.  Gas prices are at an all-time high.  Some analysts think that gas might reach $10 a gallon in the near future, boosted by a declining dollar and an uncontrollable spike in demand.  Consumer confidence is at a five-year low.  This is the second recession under President Bush, yet all the 43rd president can do is blame Congress.  And this is just on the domestic front.  Don't even get me started on our mess abroad.

With all this happening, we are perhaps in the middle of the most important presidential campaign in a generation.  There are issues to be discussed.  Yet, all the media seems to be focused on now is Reverend Wright.  The Obama Campaign is stuck in a corner.  Today on the campaign trail, Obama promised yet another big press conference on Reverend Wright, following his former pastor's address on Sunday in front of the NAACP.

Why can't all this stop?  The media does a great job of putting candidates into a box.  They have with John McCain as well -- portraying him as an old, angry man.  Or Obama, a fringe liberal who attended an anti-American church.  So the media finds any evidence to back up their preexisting view of a candidate and reports it.  Hardly do they report contradicting stories, as if to tell the American public, "I know you can't handle nuance, so let's make this easy for you by reporting only one side of the story."  Like today, the media is ignoring the fact that Barack Obama called for non-violence in New York City, which angered Reverend Al Sharpton.  Sharpton went on to accuse Obama of trying to "grandstand in front of white people."  But that does not fit the media's perception of the anti-American, pro-Black Panther -- otherwise known as Barack Obama.  So they won't report it.

This campaign is now nothing but a circus, and the media has complete control over it.  No wonder it has lasted this long.  Cable news doesn't want it to end.  It's their soap opera.  It's their excuse for not reporting actual news.  The Clintons love drama.  As long as the media reports on the tactics, which the Clintons are good at, and not real issues, this contest will continue all the way to the convention.

Terry McAuliffe hearts FOX

The Clinton camp shows its true colors.  Even when you are this desperate, why stoop that low?

So close in Indiana

Three new polls taken in the state of Indiana reflect how close this May 6th contest will be, and how any stumble by either candidate along the way could make the difference.

ARG:

50% - Hillary Clinton
45% - Barack Obama

Research 2000:

48% - Barack Obama
47% - Hillary Clinton

WTHR:

41% - Barack Obama
38% - Hillary Clinton

If I were the Clinton Campaign, I would renew calls for a debate before the Indiana primary.  Obama would not be able to say no, based on the unwavering excitement among Indianans that for the first time ever they could decide the outcome of who becomes president in January of 2009.  Their local media affiliates are really hyping up this contest.  Obama would look dismissive and out of touch if he backed away from such an offer.

Just thinking like Hillary Clkinton, that's all.

DNC already joining forces with Obama

Compared to the Republican National Committee's effort to help Clinton in North Carolina, over on the Democratic side the DNC has already made an arrangement with the Obama campaign to unveil a massive 50-state voter registration drive.

Time Magazine has more on the Obama-DNC merger:

The fact that the Obama campaign is moving forward and Clinton isnot at this time reflects certain important realities: Obama’s team ismore confident that he will win the nomination than is Clinton’s — andObama’s campaign has the necessity and luxury of thinking about andplanning for the general election to come.

As part of that preparation, the campaign is thinking about how todivide up roles and responsibilities between the campaign’s Chicagoheadquarters and the DNC in Washington.

The DNC has stood out during this election cycle as the one majorparty entity that has not been raising money like gangbusters, andofficials in both camps hope the joint agreement can allow the DNC totap into Obama’s extraordinary leverage and popularity with donors,particularly after he secures the nomination — assuming he does.

The committee formed under the agreement is still in search of a final name.

Great news!  As the party establishment spends more of its resources forming such a committee, the DNC then becomes more path-dependent on Obama becoming the Democratic nominee.

Clinton is reckless when it comes to Iran

This quote from Hillary Clinton earlier this week was overlooked:

"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attackIran (if it attacks Israel)," Clinton said in an interview on ABC's"Good Morning America."

"In the next 10 years, during whichthey might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we wouldbe able to totally obliterate them," she said.

"That's aterrible thing to say but those people who run Iran need to understandthat because that perhaps will deter them from doing something thatwould be reckless, foolish and tragic," Clinton said.

Reckless, irresponsible, naive, undiplomatic and absolutely reactionary.  Might as well call her Hillary Cheney.  She is unfit to ever be commander-in-chief.

This race should end in two weeks

If Democratic leaders were smart and understood the damage that Hillary Clinton's candidacy is inflicting among Democratic voters, they would hype up the May 6th contests in North Carolina and Indiana as a do-or-die event for her.  This thing needs to end fast.  According to NBC exit polling data, Hillary Clinton's candidacy is hurting her own party:

One-quarter of Clinton voters would back Mr. McCain while 19 percentsaid they would stay home in November entirely." Of Obama supporters,"67 percent said they would support Mrs. Clinton if she earns the partynod, 17 percent would back the Republican senator and 12 percent wouldnot vote."

This number is up significantly from Ohio, when more voters were open to supporting the other candidate.  In other words, the Democrats would be smart to end this thing fast.  They have two options for May 6th:

• The more drastic option includes encouraging super delegates to support whoever wins more delegates on May 6th.
• Or, the party hierarchy could say that if someone sweeps the May 6th contests then that candidate gets the super delegate support.

I'd go with the second option because it is more practical.  If Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina, Dean, Pelosi and Reid need to convince super delegates to make up their mind one way or another.

Election Thread

I will be at work during the time when all the results come in.  But I will give updates during my breaks.

So, as tonight unfolds, feel free to discuss the effect that this contest will have on Indiana and North Carolina, and whether this likely victory for Clinton will give her a bounce.  Did she exceed expectations?  Does she mathematically have a chance?