The Blue State

It's about Indiana, not Pennsylvania

On the morning of what pundits are hyping up to be the all important Pennsylvania primary, the real test will come on May 6th.  While Hillary has every right to be in the race at this point, her argument for staying in will be greatly diminished if she loses both North Carolina and Indiana.  The two states vote on that same May 6th night.  North Carolina is poised to go for Obama.  The question is who will win Indiana.  Polls show that the race there is incredibly close there, with the slight edge favoring Obama.

It is likely that if Obama wins both May 6th contests, there will be a wave of super delegates going his way starting the morning after.

PA polling data -- the day before

Obama is closing in on Hillary fast, but it probably still won't be enough to catch her.  Even Obama himself is already proclaiming Hillary as the likely victor in PA.  Here are a number of polls just one day before the vote.

Quinnipiac:

51% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

Survey USA:

50% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

Survey USA has been the most reliable so far this campaign season.

Public Policy Polling:

49% - Barack Obama
46% - Hillary Clinton

Don't even bother with this one.  PPP has been way off ever since Iowa.  Their polls have indicated for quite some time that Obama is ahead in Pennsylvania, which is contradicted by just about every other poll out there.

Zogby:

48% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

Suffolk University:

52% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

Rasmussen:

49% - Hillary Clinton
42% - Barack Obama

So in summary, if the average of the more reliable polls (Survey USA, Rasmussen and Suffolk University) are 50% Hillary to 44% Obama, then on election day we can expect it to be around 54% Clinton to 46% Obama.  If Hillary gets better than that, like in the 56% mark or higher, she will have a reason to drag this thing on much longer.  If it's closer, look for Democratic Party leaders to rally around Obama, setting up Clinton's do-or-die contest in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th.

It's all about the media's portrayal of Hillary's chances

Heading into the final day of campaigning before the Pennsylvania primary, Hillary Clinton is poised to claim a victory over Barack Obama.  The question is how large of a victory will it be?  And an even larger question than that is how will the media choose to spin that victory?  In other words, if Obama closes within five points, will the media go bananas and declare that Hillary is back in the race, or will they take the logical route and explain that the former First Lady mathematically eliminated herself by not taking full advantage of her last opportunity to substantially diminish Obama's lead among pledged delegates with time running out before all the states have voted?

It's up to you Brian WIlliams, Wolf Blitzer, Chris Matthews, Howard Fineman, Anderson Cooper, Katie Couric, and Keith Olbermann.  If you plan to give us a narrative, give us one based on fact.

Obama closing in on Clinton in PA

The pundits, the reporters, the bloggers -- including myself -- who thought Obama may have hurt himself in the debate a few days ago were all wrong.  In fact, Obama may have won the debate.  According to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in the state of Pennsylvania, taken just yesterday, Obama is closing in on Clinton:

Pennsylvania Democrats -- Taken 4/17 (4/14)
47% - Hillary Clinton (50%)
44% - Barack Obama (41)

What an incredible development!  If the Obama campaign pushes hard this weekend, they may be able to end this race.  DNC Chairman Howard Dean is putting an immense amount of pressure on super delegates to make a decision.  If he wins, it's over.  If it's close, super delegates will still flock to his side.

Super Delegate switches vote to Obama

Just in:

You heard it here first. Council member and newly elected superdelegateHarry Thomas Jr., initially a supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton,is announcing in minutes that he will cast his vote at the DemocraticNational Convention in Denver for Sen. Barack Obama.

The Obama Campaign had been rumoring this morning that a few Clinton super delegates were going to switch.

Before you get excited

Before you get excited about the news all over the cable networks that Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, take a reality pill.  Public Policy Polling, which conducted the survey, has been way off on just about every poll since the Iowa Caucuses.  Last week in their poll, Obama was ahead by two.  This week, he is up by three, 45% to 42%.  I don't think so!  While the trends show that the Hillary-McCain cross-examination of Obama's bitter comments did not go anywhere, he still trails in just about every other poll.

Obama needs a miracle to win Pennsylvania.  Obama's supporters there had better show up in droves on election day in order to make that happen.

Wave of new polls show Clinton holding PA lead

In just about every poll you look at, with less than one week to go, Obama's chances of winning there are slim to none.  The question is whether he can keep it within ten points.

Rasmussen (4/14):

50% - Hillary Clinton
41% - Barack Obama

Quinnipiac (4/12-13):

50% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

Susquehanna (4/14):

40% - Hillary Clinton
37% - Barack Obama

Survey USA (4/12-14):

54% - Hillary Clinton
40% - Barack Obama

So far this primary season, Survey USA has been the most accurate of all the polls.  Unless Hillary makes a huge strategic blunder, expect her to hold on.  If for some reason Obama did win, it would knock the former First Lady out of the race.

Looking beyond Pennsylvania

Obama supporters have to come to grips with the likelihood that Hillary Clinton will win Pennsylvania rather easily.  We will try to capture as many delegates in that contest as possible.  However, judging from the fact that the media has gone to town with the remarks Obama made regarding bitterness in Pennsylvania, our candidate's up-tick in momentum there has leveled out, if not reversed somewhat.

The campaign would be smart to focus heavily on the May 6th contests in North Carolina and Indiana.  Nationally, Obama leads Clinton 50% to 40% in a Gallup Poll just released today.  As good as that is, what really matters is the polling in the upcoming states.  In North Carolina, Obama has a comfortable lead there.  And Clinton leads Obama by three in Indiana.  If Obama sweeps the May 6th contests, he can make the case to super delegates that they must stand in his favor.  If that happens, this race is over.

Obama has had one month to make the case to Pennsylvania voters.  It looks like, no matter what he does, Obama will come up short.  Let's move on.

Clinton said same thing as Obama in '91

Barack Obama has drawn fire over the last few days for attributing poverty as the source behind many social insecurities in this country.  Hillary Clinton flipped out at Obama for having the guts to make such a bold statement.

Though, it turns out that in 1991 Bill Clinton said virtually the same thing:

"The reason (George H. W. Bush's tactic) works so well now is that youhave all these economically insecure white people who are scared todeath," Clinton was quoted saying by the Los Angeles Times in September 1991.

And once again:

"You know, he [Bush] wants to divide us over race. I'm from the South.I understand this. This quota deal they're gonna pull in the nextelection is the same old scam they've been pulling on us for decadeafter decade after decade. When their economic policies fail, when thecountry's coming apart rather than coming together, what do they do?They find the most economically insecure white men and scare the livingdaylights out of them. They know if they can keep us looking at eachother across a racial divide, if I can look at Bobby Rush and think,Bobby wants my job, my promotion, then neither of us can look at GeorgeBush and say, 'What happened to everybody's job? What happened toeverybody's income? What ... have ... you ... done ... to ... our ...country?'"

Funny how the tables can turn in an instant.

Bill spins Hillary's Bosnia misstatement

If you are an Obama supporter, you appreciate the fact that Bill Clinton is keeping this story in the forefront.  The longer the networks talk about it, the more that Hillary's honesty will be an issue.  This was Bill Clinton yesterday:

"You know, I got tickled the other day. A lot of the way this wholecampaign has been covered has amused me. But there was a lot offulminating because Hillary, one time late at night when she wasexhausted, misstated — and immediately apologized for it — whathappened to her in Bosnia  in 1995 [sic]. Did y'all see all that? Oh, they blew it up.

"Let me just tell you. The president of Bosnia and General Wesley Clark –who was there making peace where we'd lost three peacekeepers, who hadto ride on a dangerous mountain road because it was too dangerous to gothe regular, safe way –  both defended her because they pointed outthat when her plane landed in Bosnia, she had to go up to thebulletproof part of the plane, in the front. Everybody else had to puttheir flak jackets underneath the seat in case they got shot at. Andeverywhere they went, they were covered by Apache helicopters. So theyjust abbreviated the arrival ceremony.

"Now I say that because, what really has mattered is that even thenshe was interested in our troops. And I think she was the first firstlady since Eleanor Roosevelt to go into a combat zone. And you woulda thought, you know, that she'drobbed a bank the way they carried on about this. And some of them,when they're 60, they'll forget something when they're tired at 11 atnight, too.”

Of course she'd go to the bullet proof part of the plane.  She was the First Lady.  I wouldn't be surprised if they made her do that during other trips as well.  Really though -- if there is ever a bullet proof part of a plane, and if the First Lady or any other elected officials are flying, why would they not be seated there?