The Blue State

Candidates position as we enter home stretch in Pennsylvania

Over the last month, Hillary Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania has dwindled from around 20 points to single digits.  The latest Time Magazine poll, just released today, confirms that the Obama surge is happening.  Clinton leads Obama 44% to 38%.

The sudden up-tick in Obama's numbers has Clinton's communications director trying to downplay expectations:

"He is doing everything he can to win in Pennsylvania," Wolfson said."And if he doesn't win, it will be a significant defeat for him."

Regardless of what Wolfson says, Clinton has been in the driver's seat in that state from the very beginning, and it is likely she will hold on.  The demographics favor Hillary so much that Obama would need to make more inroads among female voters in order to pull off an upset.  What will likely happen instead is that unless Obama wins Pennsylvania, this race will drag on at least until the morning of May 7th, one day after the contests in North Carolina and Indiana are held.  The election in Guam a few days earlier on May 3rd only awards nine delegates, and won't be much of a factor.  But if Obama can somehow get within a few points of Clinton in Pennsylvania and then sweep the May 6th contests, we would see a wave of super delegates go Obama's way, and the Clinton campaign could unravel.

In summary, a victory for Clinton in Pennsylvania is not all that it's hyped to be -- unless that victory is 15 points or more (then Obama would have a problem).  But if Obama can lose by just a few points and then win Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th, we will see this thing end fast.

Poll: Clinton barely up in PA

Is was the case with all the other polls today, this new poll indicates that the race in Pennsylvania is tightening up.  Although, Hillary does still lead there:

Public Policy Polling Survey (PA voters, April 7 - 8)
46% - Hillary Clinton
43% - Barack Obama

Obama can put Clinton away with a win there.  That might explain why the Clinton campaign is releasing five new ads in Pennsylvania.

A more accurate Pennsylvania poll

I mentioned yesterday that an American Research Group poll, which showed Clinton tied with Obama in Pennsylvania, appeared to be a stretch due to the former First Lady's obvious strengths there among certain demographics.  This new poll from Quinnipiac appears a bit more accurate:

Pennsylvania Democrats (April 3 - 6)
50% - Hillary Clinton
44% - Barack Obama

This is still great news for the Obama Campaign because it confirms that he has indeed been surging as of late.  Furthermore, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party reports this morning that party enrollment has hit the 4 million mark as we near upcoming vote.

Obama needs to put her away in PA

Even though it seems the window of opportunity for Hillary's presidential aspirations are closing, a victory in Pennsylvania, even though she was supposed to win there anyway, could keep this thing going into June.  If the Democratic base wants to beat John McCain, they had better help end this race as soon as possible.

It does not really matter that Mark Penn, Hillary's chief strategist, had his hand in dirty money and was demoted over the weekend.  Nor does it make a difference that Barack Obama is so far ahead of the former First Lady in contests won, popular votes, pledged delegates and total delegates.  The Clintons thing they own a piece of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and are entitled to the presidency.  If they win Pennsylvania, they will drag this race out.  There is a flicker of hope for them in Indiana and Kentucky.  As long as she is winning contests, her campaign can conclude that she is justified in staying in.

What Obama needs is a knockout blow in Pennsylvania, which would effectively end this thing once and for all.  As a new American Research Group poll shows, this thing is deadlocked:

ARG Poll (April 5th and 6th)
45% - Hillary Clinton
45% - Barack Obama

Although I think the poll is a bit off and Clinton really leads there, there is now doubt the race is very close.  He can end it with a win in a few weeks.

If Hillary wins PA, this thing could last until June

Although Barack Obama is closing fast in the polls, Hillary Clinton still leads in Pennsylvania.  From the very beginning, she was expected to win there.  She would then have to win either North Carolina or Indiana, who both vote on May 6th.  If she lost both, she would be out.  And then there's Kentucky and Oregon.  At the moment, Obama leads in North Carolina and she leads in Indiana.  They will probably split those two races.  Oregon will go to Obama rather easily.  In Kentucky, Obama is way behind.

In other words, the two will keep splitting race after race, leaving this thing up in the air until June.

More on Hillary's debt

She runs on a platform of free health care for everyone, but didn't pay for her staff's health care:

Among the debtsreported this month by Hillary Rodham Clinton’s struggling presidentialcampaign, the $292,000 in unpaid health insurance premiums for hercampaign staff stands out.

Clinton, who is being pressured to end her campaign against Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination, has made her plan for universal health care a centerpiece of her agenda.

Not the biggest deal.  However, it does underscore the growing financial differences between the two campaigns.

 

Edwards may endorse Hillary tomorrow

There's a rumor circulating the blogs today that, in a stunning announcement, John Edwards will endorse Hillary Clinton as soon as tomorrow.

If he does, Edwards will hurt his own political future, unless he truly believes that his endorsement will turn the tide and help Hillary win the nomination.

Chelsea made false statement about mother's condemnation of Darfur

Yes, that one member of the audience crossed the line a week ago by asking Chelsea about her take on the Lewinsky scandal.  But since she is a campaign surrogate speaking on her mom's behalf, she isn't immune to all scrutiny.

During a campaign stop in Pennsylvania, Chelsea Clinton falsely claimed that her mother was the first person to call the situation in Darfur a "genocide."

Actually, it was Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) who first spoke about genocide in March of 2004.  Clinton said nothing about genocide before then, and it wasn't until May of 2004 when she finally supported legislation that condemned the situation there.

Clinton's efforts to steal delegates in Texas

We had thought Texas was over with and done with after Obama grabbed a slight majority of the pledged delegates there.  Actually, the Clinton campaign is trying to contest the election of some Obama delegates there.  Wow!

This thing could be over very soon

Three things just happened in the last few hours:

• Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey endorsed Barack Obama.  Bad news for Hillary in a state where she leads and must win.
• DNC Chairman Howard Dean stepped in and said for the first time that this race must be resolved by July 1st.  It will not go to the convention still deadlocked.  Again, bad news for Hillary.
• Senator Pat Leahy (D-VT), a very powerful elder in the Democratic Party that chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee, is calling on Hillary to drop out.  This comes one day after Chris Dodd, another Senator, called on the former First Lady to get out because she has no chance of winning.  Once again, bad bad news for Hillary.

This has all happened in such a short time frame.  Obama previewed to us a few weeks ago that his campaign would roll out a series of high-profile endorsements before the Pennsylvania primary, giving him added momentum to possibly win there.  So is this it for the endorsements, or will there be more?  Gore?  Edwards?  Carter?

Both time and momentum are not in Hillary's favor.  If Obama wins Pennsylvania, this thing is over.  A few weeks ago, Hillary was so far ahead there.  But with all this added momentum, plus the start of Obama's six-day campaign bus swing there, he may actually have a chance.