Here are two new polls.
:
Barack Obama - 33%
Hillary Clinton - 24%
John Edwards - 24%
Bill Richardson - 9%
:
Hillary Clinton - 27%
Barack Obama - 27%
John Edwards - 22%
Bill Richardson - 8%
With still plenty of undecided voters remaining.
After a brief trip up to Canada for the weekend to meet with the political science department at a graduate school, I am back and ready for the home stretch run that leads to the January 3rd Iowa Caucus. A lot will be riding on that contest. If Hillary wins, the momentum pushing her into New Hampshire as the odds-on inevitable nominee might be too overwhelming for Obama or Edwards to stop. Of course, if Edwards wins Iowa, which could end up happening, Hillary might be just as excited. Just as long as Obama finishes lower than first place in Iowa, she will be optimistic heading into New Hampshire and beyond.
As for Edwards, he actually could win Iowa. Remember, this is not a primary. It's not one person one vote. Instead, each precinct, regardless of population, will receive the exact same amount of delegates. Edwards, who has visited all 99 counties, has a respectable shot at pulling off the upset. He has visited some of the most rural parts of Iowa, which have the exact same weight in terms of votes as precincts in Des Moines. Anything can happen.
Over the last few days, I have grown less optimistic about Barack Obama's chances in Iowa. Yes, I still consider him the slight favorite to win. But I am less optimistic because I am getting a Howard Dean vibe from his campaign. Like Dean, Obama is over-relying on younger voters, many of which never caucused before, and could even decide not to show up on the cold, wintery January 3rd evening. Many of the college students will be back in their home towns, some in other states, and therefore would be unable to attend. If the caucus were on the week of January 14th, therefore, I would say Obama would win by at least five percentage points. But now that it has been moved up, the loyalists, especially those in rural counties, might give the advantage to Edwards.
It's still a toss-up. The media is trying to make this a two-way race between Hillary and Obama. As far as Iowa concerned, it isn't. There are three contenders, all with an almost equal shot of winning. These are crucial days between now and December 23rd, and then from the 27th leading up to the 3rd. You can bet that there will be no Christmas for any candidate, as they try to grab the very last undecided Iowa voters and get them to commit to caucus.
After six years of closed government, after more than two decades of have two families run our government, it comes as no surprise that on both sides favor populist candidates.
Obama is out in front for the Democrats:
Likely Democratic Iowa Caucus-goers
Barack Obama - 35%
Hillary Clinton - 29%
John Edwards - 18%
Now for the Republicans:
Likely Republican Iowa Caucus-goers
Mike Huckabee - 39%
Mitt Romney - 17%
Fred Thompson - 10%
Rudolph Giuliani - 9%
John McCain - 6%
This comes from the , a student-run newspaper. Here is an excerpt:
Obama has a realistic plan to get the troops out of Iraq, instead ofsome poorly thought out cut-and-run debacle; he has a commitment tomaking the U.S. energy independent, which would solve several of ourIraq problems anyway; he takes the changes occurring in our environmentseriously and would put measures in place to reduce our impact; and hisuniversal health insurance plan is as realistic as anyone else's.
And unlike some of his counterparts, Obama isn't anchoring himselfon a one-issue platform. What needs addressed in America isn't just thewar in Iraq; it isn't just health care; and it isn't just that - in theDemocrats' view - Bush and his cronies need to be removed from power.Obama grasps the bigger picture.
Perhaps what Obama offers most of all is a change of family. Twofamilies have run the country for the past 20 years, and an electionfor Hillary would make that 24 at a minimum - longer than most collegestudents have been alive. Political power shouldn't follow throughfamily lines. That in itself is unhealthy for our country's image tothe rest of the world as a democracy, and is an example of a politicalsystem that seems rooted in its old ways that aren't working.
I would like to see the Obama camp use the two-family argument a bit more. It is very true.
In Iowa, there has been a major defection from Hillary Clinton's camp. One of her 25 campaign co-chairs in Iowa is because he believes the former First Lady has run a very dirty campaign:
Once, Garry Thomas counted himself a Hillary Clinton supporter --even signing up to be one of her 25 co-chairs in Iowa alongside withformer Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack.
But Thomas now says he felt obliged to switch sides in recent weeks."I think the Clinton campaign went negative," Thomas said in atelephone interview on Thursday. He attributed his defection to the newtone Clinton took last weekend, describing it as divisive. Obamaofficials said Thomas committed to them this week.
Thomas said he informed Harry Baxter, the former Des Moines CountyDemocratic Party chairman and a Clinton coordinator, of his decision todefect -- and no one from the Clinton campaign tried to talk him out ofit.
"I didn't get any calls," Thomas said.
Thomas is a Burlington City Council member.
The Blue State is partnered with a group called , which advocates for other Democratic candidates besides Hillary Clinton to win the nomination. We want to get the following ad on air in Iowa:
is how you can help make it happen.
Yes, Obama is winning in Iowa. is why:
** Clinton loses 12 pts among union households; running roughlyequal with Obama among women (he leads within the subset margin). But 7in 10 women are not choosing Clinton.
** Clinton most presidential, knowledgeable and ego-driven
** Obama most principled, likeable
** Huckabee shoots up among self-described born agains
** Romney seen as most presidential** The margin of error is /- 4.4%, so Obama technically does not lead outside the margin of error. Huckabee does.
And it's no surprise, either, especially after 27 years of leadership that gave us an inflated national debt, high gas prices, increased health care costs, NAFTA, and increased military involvement in the Middle East. It's time for a , and voters on both sides recognize that the blame rests on the Washington establishment:
The race for president on the Democratic and Republican sides hasmade a dramatic turn in Iowa with longtime frontrunners Hillary Clintonand Mitt Romney being outflanked by Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, anew poll showed Saturday.
The Des Moines Register's ,one of the most respected measures of the nation's first caucus state,showed Obama, the Illinois Democrat, with the backing of 28 percent oflikely Democratic caucusgoers, compared to 25 percent for Clinton, 23percent for John Edwards and 9 percent for Bill Richardson.
On the Republican side, Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, hadsupport from 29 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers to 24 percent forMitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who has poured millionsof dollars into the Iowa campaign. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giulianiwas third with 13 percent while former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson wasfourth with 9 percent, the survey showed.
The poll, which has an error margin of 4.4 percentage points, wasconducted Nov. 25-28. It showed a significant shift during the last twomonths among those who say they plan to attend the nation's leadoffpresidential deliberations on Jan. 3.
The tide is turning. Change is in the air. The next president of the United States will be a populist.
It's not just the Mormon issue that is hurting Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts Governor is running into the same problem in Iowa as Hillary Clinton. It's experience versus judgment. You can cite all the experience you want. In the end, voters in both parties want a candidate that stands by what they believe. A track record of good judgment, as far as Iowa is concerned, always beats a track record of good experience. Huckabee has consistently been a cultural conservative, Mitt Romney has not.
It's ads like this one, which was released just this week, that only help Huckabee's cause:
In every national and state poll, John Edwards is struggling to muster up even 15%. But in Iowa, he is right in the middle of it. He could even win the state -- which to an extent, might be a blessing for Hillary, because Obama would falter and Edwards doesn't have the national organization to compete with her. However, nonetheless, Edwards must win Iowa to stay alive. He places second in a brand new of likely Iowa Caucus-goers:
Hillary Clinton - 25%
John Edwards - 23%
Barack Obama - 22%
Bill Richardson - 12%
Joe Biden - 4%
Chris Dodd - 1%
Dennis Kucinich - 1%
Undecided - 12%
But this doesn't mean it's all bad news for Obama. In a new , for the first time the Illinois Senator is neck and neck with the front-runner. This is a national poll:
Hillary Clinton - 37%
Barack Obama - 36%
This is the first time in any national poll that Barack Obama has crossed the 35% threshold. That achievement underscores the sudden effectiveness of his national organization.
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