The Blue State

(Video) Obama's effective week

the team over at CBS News are not the only ones noticing a difference in Barack Obama's tone this week.  Encouraged by his supporters to be more aggressive, the freshman Senator is stepping up the rhetoric on Senator Hillary Clinton, and is making huge headway among older voters, who traditionally show up to caucus.

CBS News has been following Obama all week, and notes on his changed attitude:

Obama needs an aggressive mindset if he plans on duking it out with the Clintons with any kind of success.

It's lines like this that impress me:

• Earlier this week, Obama said he is "impatient" for change in Washington: "As you can tell, it's starting to get a little chilly.  It'sgetting close to caucus time.  You need somebody who is impatient."
• Instead of limiting his reach to advocates of Washington reform, he is also addressing voters with economic needs.  He said this in an Iowa ad just released: "I'm telling the CEOs it hurts America when they cash out and leaveworkers high and dry. It's an outrage. And you've got to have someonein the White House who believes it's an outrage."

In fact, here is that ad:

For a 30-second spot, that is very good.  He is in a statistical tie with Hillary and Edwards.  Let's hope this carries over to the debate next Wednesday.

When impatience is a good thing

During a week-long campaign swing through vote-rich areas of Iowa, Barack Obama is striking a much more aggressive tone -- that he is impatient for change:

"You need somebody who is impatient," he said.

Then, a baby in the audience cried. "Yes," Obama responded.

"We can't wait to bring about change," he said. "I don't know aboutyou, but I don’t accept that the wealthiest nation on Earth still has47 million people uninsured and millions more who are in financialstraits because of health insurance."

It would be nice, for his own sake, if he showed that same impatience during the next debate.  Besides this coming Wednesday, there will be only one or two more debates before the Iowa Caucus.  This is crunch time.  Obama was over-shadowed by Edwards in the last debate.  This might be the Illinois Senator's last chance.

IA-2008: Iowa race in a statistical three-way tie

For Hillary, Edwards and Obama, Iowa is anybody's race to win.  A new Zogby poll shows that each of them are in contention:

Iowa Democrats (likely caucus-goers)

Hillary Clinton - 28%
Barack Obama - 25%
John Edwards - 21%

Now to the next part -- and this is where is gets mighty interesting.  According to caucus rules, if after a precinct votes a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, all the individuals who voted for that candidate must either forfeit their vote or support a candidate above the 15% threshold.

At the moment, it seems like in almost every precinct only Hillary, Obama and Edwards will be above the 15% threshold.  So it all comes down to which candidate Biden, Richardson, Dodd, Gravel and Kucinich supporters will switch their votes to.  Here are the results:

                                                          

	First Choice Only	Including Second Choices of Those Who First   Backed Unviables
Clinton	28%	30%
Obama	25%	29%
Edwards	21%	27%
Not Sure	12%	15%

In other words, we are all tied up in Iowa.  Just to note, according to Zogby, John Edwards was able to make up the most ground because most Biden and Richardson supporters jumped to his side.

(Video) Edwards makes his move in Iowa

This is it.  On the same day the Federal Elections Commission announced that John Edwards was eligible for public funds, he kicked off the last leg of his push to become the Democratic nominee.  He is now spending big in Iowa on television ads geared at establishing himself as the alternative to Hillary Clinton.

In the first TV ad of this major push, Edwards bought an entire minute of airtime to highlight two major themes:

1. This campaign is not about him, it's about middle class voters with needs.
2. Democrats must show backbone for a change.

This is significant because although Edwards has focused his money on Iowa, until now his campaign had yet to air one ad in the state.  It is not some weird coincidence that he waited until the beginning of November to launch his first television spot.  This is definitely the beginning of a huge push on his part in the remaining two months.

When asked point blank, Edwards thinks he is trailing in Iowa because Obama and Hillary began showing ads months ago:

Asked last month while campaigning in Davenport, Iowa, about trailingHillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in state and national polls, hesaid it was because they had spent more money on television advertisingthan he did.

In a few weeks we will know for sure whether these television ads, coupled with his excellent debate performance, made a difference in the polls.

Iowa contest will hinge on an important rule

When all the Biden, Kucinich, Gravel, Dodd, and Richardson supporters discover that their candidates don't meet the 15% viability rule, they will need to either choose another candidate or walk out of the caucus location.  So for Obama, Hillary and Edwards, being the second choice of those supporters is critical.

This caucus rule will likely decide the outcome:

The key is a Democratic rule that candidates need the backing of atleast 15 percent of people at a caucus meeting for that support tocount. If a candidate doesn't achieve the 15 percent viability rule,the candidate's supporters can switch to their second choice or call itquits.

Biden and Richardson supporters will likely make the most impact.  Based on my own subjective findings, Biden's stances are a lot closer to where Clinton is on many issues.  Furthermore, they are both Washington establishment candidates.  Richardson, on the other hand, is staunchly anti-war, and his supporters will lean towards Obama and Edwards.  As for Kucinich and Gravel supporters, Edwards will probably be their guy.  Dodd's supporters could go anywhere.

This caucus rule means that no Iowa poll is truly meaningful unless it asks respondents for their second pick.

Why the Iowa scheduling change helps Obama

The crew over at the Swamp blog brought up a great point when recapping the MTV/MySpace forum last night.  Because the Iowa Caucus has been moved up to January 3rd, many registered college-aged voters will still be on winter break:

With as few as 50,000 votes potentially yielding a win in Iowa, thestate's tens of thousands of college students present a tantalizingtarget. Some will caucus near their schools, while others, at home onbreak, could have even greater influence by participating in smalltowns.

So how would college students participating in hometown caucuses have a greater influence?  Remember, a caucus is not the same thing as a primary.  Voters break up into groups based on their neighborhood, and discuss each candidate thoroughly.  This is where persuasive speaking skills come in handy.  If many college students, a majority of whom lean towards Obama, spread out all throughout the state, Obama's influence over all 99 counties will have increased significantly.  College students with strong opinions could convince a number of undecided voters at their table, and perhaps impact the entire race as a whole.

Having the caucuses moved to January 3rd enables more college students to participate, since few of them bother re-registering in the district where they go to school.  Remember, you cannot vote absentee in a caucus.  You must be there.  Besides, do you really think college students would bother driving all the way back home just to caucus on a Thursday during the school year?  Of course not.  But if it winter break, many of them will be back home anyway.  This schedule change only helps Obama's cause.

IA-2008: Hillary barely leads Obama

Though the national polls show a Hillary landslide in the making, Iowa is still a very close race.  This new University of Iowa poll of 306 likely Democratic caucus-goers finds that Obama still could win the state.  As for Edwards, he is beginning to fall behind, despite the fact that over the weekend he became the first candidate in either party to visit all 99 counties.

Here are the numbers:

Likely Iowa Caucus Voters

Hillary Clinton - 29%
Barack Obama - 27%
John Edwards - 20%
Bill Richardson - 7%
Joe Biden - 5%

/- 5.8%

If Hillary Clinton rolls through Iowa, nothing will stop her from winning the nomination -- mark my words.  With that said, Iowa is still very much up in the air.  Remember, with three weeks to go before the vote in 2004, John Kerry trailed in third place.  But as Kos points out, Clinton is much more disciplined than Howard Dean:

Clinton is no Howard Dean. In fact, she may be the most disciplinedpolitician I have ever seen. She's a machine, always on message,relentlessly perfect on everything -- appearance, message, and policy.It's that discipline that has allowed her to fool people into thinkingshe'd pull all of our troops out of Iraq and that her vote on Iranwasn't REALLY as horrible as it really was.

She won't make a mistake. She will not implode. She's too good tomake the obvious mistake, and even if she erred (she's human, so we canassume), her campaign wouldn't waste any time setting things straight.

It truly comes down to whether voters in Iowa will be fooled by machine-style politics, or whether they look beyond the inevitability factor and select a candidate based on substance.

In tomorrow's debate, Obama and Edwards will need to go on the offensive.  No more playing around.  If they are unable to be more disciplined in their message, we are looking at a Clinton primary landslide.

(We invite all of you to join us for the live chat during tomorrow's MSNBC debate, which begins at 9 PM ET/6 PM PT.)

Obama running from above

More than 350,000 donors.  Nearly $100 million raised.  National name recognition.  But for some reason, Obama just cannot get any traction in the polls.  One political science professor in Iowa thinks he knows why:

After watching Obama speak on his Des Moines campus recently, DrakeUniversity political science professor Dennis Goldford glimpsed onereason Obama is not faring as well as many think he should.

"There is a tremendous curiosity factor. He radiated a certain coolthat would be very attractive to college students and young people,"Goldford said. "For older voters, though" -- and half of caucusgoersare 55 or older -- "the music's great, but where are the lyrics? He'sbeen trying to fill that out somewhat, but for people inclined to go tothe caucus anyway, the lack of experience is significant."

Obama, said Goldford, has a cerebral approach that leaves some voterswanting more. While Clinton is running "from the center" and formerEdwards is running "from the left," he said, Obama is "running fromabove."

"He is trying to run against the process and politics as usual itself,"Goldford added. "The last person to do that successfully was PresidentBill Bradley in 2000." (Rimshot, please.)

As someone that has followed this campaign play out, Barack Obama has bogged down by consultants.  He no longer has the confident, free-flowing style that made him famous during the 2004 Democratic Convention.  He comes off as too calculated, cautious and serious.  He has a few weeks left to come out of his shell, otherwise we will have crossed the point of no return and Hillary or Edwards will win the nomination.

A caucus is not a primary

There has been a lot of confusion about this lately, from internet bulletin boards to emails that I have received.  The Iowa Caucus is different from the New Hampshire primary in that people do not just pull the lever and vote.  They get into groups and interactively try to sway one another:

On caucus night, Democratic voters gather in school auditoriums,churches and other meeting halls, dividing into smaller groups based onwhich candidate they support. Each candidate's supporters then attemptto persuade other party members to switch their allegiance before thevoting begins.

Although all the courses offer the big picture, they will alsoexplain the Byzantine details of caucus night, such as the Democrats'rule that requires a candidate at each site to have the backing of atleast 15 percent of those gathered for their support to count. If theydon't meet the 15 percent threshold, a supporter can pick anothercandidate or quit the process.

The rule doesn't apply to Republicans, who gather separately fromthe Democrats. For Republicans, caucusing is more like a straw poll andconducted by secret ballot.

Got it?

IA-08: Hillary pulling away in Iowa

I know that many of you are not huge fans of Hillary Clinton.  So before you get all depressed because of this poll, take a second to calm down.  Think for a minute.  When candidates like Hillary Clinton develop huge leads, expectations grow as well.  When that happens, any stumble becomes an implosion because the media runs the candidate into the ground.  Think of it as a stock market bubble.  Clinton might be over-valued at this point.  All it will take is for voters to be given just one reason to jump ship, and they will.

So, again, mellow out.  Relax.  Take a deep breath.  Yes, Iowa is almost two months away.  But at this point in 2004, John Kerry was behind both Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt, and it stayed that way until the last week before the caucuses.

Without further adieu, here are the latest Rasmussen numbers out of Iowa:

Likely Iowa Caucus Voters

Hillary Clinton - 33%
John Edwards - 22%
Barack Obama - 21%
Bill Richardson - 9%
Joe Biden - 4%
Other - 2%

So what is the big difference between Clinton and Obama voters?  It's economics, stupid:

Obama is strongest among upper income participants, those earning atleast $75,000 a year. Clinton does best among those earning less than$40,000 a year. As for those between those extremes, Edwards ispreferred by 29%, Clinton by 28%, and Obama by 21%.

Barack Obama needs to go beyond just talking about the ills of the Washington establishment.  He needs to go heavy on economic issues.