The Blue State

Webb prepares for prime time

UPDATE (1/24/07 @ 1:36 AM): Here is the video of Webb's Democratic Response.

On Tuesday, following the President's State of the Union Address, Senator James Webb (D-VA) will give the Democratic response.  In the mere five minutes that Webb is allotted, the Virginia Democrats plans to spend most of  his time addressing Iraq:

"How can we keep sending billions of dollars over to Iraq and not funda really energetic effort to help places like New Orleans?"

This refers to the billion dollars that the President plans to spend on a jobs program in Iraq, which is part of his overall troop escalation proposal.  The USA Today gave a good preview of what we can expect Webb to say:

In his speech, which the senator said he's trying to keep to about five minutes, he plans to address:

•Iraq and national security. Webb, whocalled the administration's decision to invade Iraq "reckless," said hewon't support cutting funds for the military effort, but he wantsCongress to create pressure for a diplomatic solution. "There willnever be political stability in Iraq as long as there are Americancombat troops on the streets of Iraq," he said. "We need to get themout."

•Economics and globalization. Webb said he believes that the "internationalization of corporate America" is widening the gap between rich and poor.

•Government accountability. Webb said he will discuss ethics reform and efforts to expand congressional oversight of the executive branch.

I am really glad that the Democrats are choosing to showcase one of their new faces.  A few weeks ago when I heard rumors that a freshman senator would give the speech, I as hoping for either Jim Webb of Virginia or Jon Tester of Montana.  Both of them demonstrate the party's successful ability in the recent election cycle to address the concerns of independent voters in traditionally red states.  The President's disapproval rating in every blue coastal state is in the 60s.  There is no incentive to bring in a Ted Kennedy type to throw red meat at a national audience.  Instead, what the Democrats need heading into '08 are the same voters that sided with James Webb just two months ago.

Webb to give Democratic response

Following President Bush's State of the Union speech one week from today, the Democrats have selected newly-elected Senator James Webb (D-VA) to give the Democratic Response:

Webb will speak for about five minutes shortly after Bush's address to a joint session of Congress on Jan. 23.

It will be the second year in a row that a Virginia Democrat has beenselected to rebut the president's annual address to Congress. Lastyear, newly elected Gov. Tim Kaine delivered the response live from theExecutive Mansion in Richmond.

Webb was once Secretary of the Navy under Reagan, and currently has a son fighting in Iraq.  Interestingly, the Senator had an unfortunate run-in with the President at a Capitol Hill party after the election:

At a recent White House reception, President Bush asked Sen.-elect Jim Webb (D-VA), “How's your boy ?”referring to Webb’s son Jimmy, who is serving in Iraq. Webb answered,“I’d like to get them out of Iraq, Mr. President,” to which Bushresponded, “That’s not what I asked you.” Webb then replied, “That's between me and my boy, Mr. President.”

James Webb defeated incumbent George Allen last November in one of the closest races nationwide.

Jim Webb almost punched Bush at reception

The relationship between President Bush and newly-elected Virginia Senator Jim Webb is not off to a good start.  According to The Hill magazine, Webb nearly slugged Bush during a verbal exchange at a private White House reception.  The Washington Post has a transcript of how it went down:

"How's your boy?" Bush asked, referring to Webb's son, a Marine serving in Iraq.

"I'd like to get them out of Iraq, Mr. President," Webb responded, echoing a campaign theme.

"That's not what I asked you," Bush said. "How's your boy?"

"That'sbetween me and my boy, Mr. President," Webb said coldly, ending theconversation on the State Floor of the East Wing of the White House.

According to The Hill newspaper, a source said Webb told people he felt like decking the President:

Webb confessed that he was so angered by this thathe was tempted to slug the commander-in-chief, reported the source, butof course didn’t. It’s safe to say, however, that Bush and Webb won’tbe taking any overseas trips together anytime soon.

Webb admitted to reporters that the exchange took place:

"I'm not particularly interested in having a picture of me and GeorgeW. Bush on my wall," Webb said in an interview yesterday in which heconfirmed the exchange between him and Bush. "No offense to theinstitution of the presidency, and I'm certainly looking forward toworking with him and his administration. [But] leaders do some symbolicthings to try to convey who they are and what the message is."

Oh man!  I'm glad Webb kept himself in check, or else this is all that people would talk about between now and January.  Webb probably would have been censured, and maybe even forced to resign from the Senate.  Of course, Bush had no clue what he was talking about -- that was probably what ticked Webb off the most.  Bush is not a military guy.  His daughters are not over in Iraq fighting.  Webb probably didn't want Bush to pretend he was interested in his son.

(Video) Webb and Tester show off independent streak

On the Sunday talk-show Meet the Press, host Tim Russert interviewed incoming Senators James Webb (D-VA) and Jon Tester (D-MT).  The two new independent-minded Senators discussed what kinds of Democrats they are, and what they will fight for:

Watch Video Clip

RUSSERT: "You said that when you walked into the Senate chamber for the first time, it was like walking into your barn.  There was no other place in the world quite like it."

That quote underscores why the Democrats succeeded in November.  It went beyond just grabbing Senate majority.  It is about bringing new, independent-minded individuals into positions of public trust.  Tester and Webb were not high profile politicians.  They have not been corrupted -- at least not yet.   Hopefully they will use their independence and outside-the-Beltway take on issues involving social justice in order to get the leadership of both parties to think outside of their Washington bubble.

(Video) VA-Sen: Imagine if those threatening calls never happened

Had it not been for the Allen Campaign's threatening phone calls, this race might not be as close.

Just days before the election, a number of Virginia residents started getting phone calls from individuals at the Allen Campaign disguising themselves as members of the Virginia Elections Commission.  The people who were called were residents from Northern Virginia and some predominantly black districts.  They were told to not show up to vote or else they would be arrested.

Below is what one of those phone calls sounded like:

Even though this whole case might soon be moot, as it is expected that James Webb will maintain his 7,000-vote lead, we might not be talking about possible recounts if these calls had never happened.  Reportedly, thousands of people in Virginia got these phone calls.

All we can hope now is that James Webb hold onto his lead.

VA-Sen: Conflicting reports from the Allen Campaign

This morning, a spokesperson for James Webb, the Democrat who currently leads by a 7,000-vote margin with 99% counted, indicated that they are ready to resist any games that Allen's people might try to play with the votes:

Webb spokeswoman Kristian Denny Todd said thecampaign respects that the canvassing process is continuing, but saidthat as a practical matter, "the vote's been counted and Jim won."

"This isn't hanging chads or anything like that.I don't think the voters will like it if the Allen camp tries to makethis into a hanging chad situation because it's not the same thing,"she said.

Before Webb claimed victory early Wednesday,Allen urged his supporters to watch carefully as the remaining returnswere counted.

"The counting will continue through the night,and will continue tomorrow, and I know you will all be like eagles andhawks watching as every one of these votes are counted," Allen said.

This recount will be a very long process.  On November 27th, once the original election is certified by the Virginia Board of Elections, George Allen then has ten days to ask for a recount.  According to WVEC, a local tv station in Virginia, the only two other recounts in modern Virginia history barely changed anything:

McDonnell, aRepublican, defeated state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds by only 360 votes outof nearly 2 million cast in last year's election. Errors discoveredduring the canvass narrowed McDonnell's lead from about 3,300 votes to323 votes. He gained 37 votes in the recount.

"Because Virginia's voting procedures are very good and gettingbetter, once that detailed scrubbing of the vote is done through thecanvassing there's little change," McDonnell said.

In the only other statewide recount in modern Virginia history,Republican Marshall Coleman shaved only 113 votes from Democrat L.Douglas Wilder's 7,000-vote advantage in the 1989 governor's race.

In the only otherstatewide recount in modern Virginia history, Republican MarshallColeman shaved only 113 votes from Democrat L. Douglas Wilder's7,000-vote advantage in the 1989 governor's race.

While the state seems almost likely to head for a recount,  I received information via email that George Allen might just concede, otherwise his political career would be tarnished forever.  A source in D.C., that I have been using for the last two months for some information regarding this campaign, informed me today that there are rumors swirling around northern Virginia that George Allen will indeed concede.  This could happen within the next few hours, or within the next two days.

For awhile, I thought my source was nuts in his conclusion, so initially I did not want to post it on this site.  But over at the Daily Kos, Markos Moulitsas confirmed an almost identical rumor.  So we will have to wait and see.

VA-Sen: Very high turnout

The Associated Press is reporting very high turnout in Virgnia:

Reports from around Virginia early Tuesday indicated anextraordinarily high turnout for a midterm election, with perhaps 65percent of registered voters expected to cast ballots, state electionsofficials said. That would double the midterm turnout in 2002.

In Roanoke County, registrar Judy Stokes said turnout in theRepublican-leaning county was very heavy Tuesday morning. Two precinctshadn't reported their figures.

"They've been so busy they haven't had time to call in," she said.

Last night, George Allen took to the airwaves with a two-minute long television ad, appearing alongside Senator John Warner.  Warner asked voters to give Allen six more years.  But there aren't many undecided voters left in Virginia, so it will be interesting today to see the impact, if any, that the ad had.

VA-Sen: A Webb landslide? Depends on the polling formula

I regret that in some of my posts I offer more questions than answers.  At the same time, it is important to prepare for the worst.  In the case of the Virginia Senate race, a number of things can happen on election day.  I foresee three scenarios:

1. Polling companies understate the impact of Northern Virginia progressives, and James Webb wins comfortably by six or seven points.
2. GOP microtargeting technology plays a huge role in George Allen's victory, allowing him to sneak by with a one or two point victory.
3. The Progressive strength in Northern Virginia and the GOP microtargeting technology offset, and the race is decided days or weeks later in a recount.

So why would I even suggest three totally different scenarios?  The two most recent polls released today are polar opposites of one another, and demonstrate how certain assumptions from most polling companies about the demographics of Virginia are prone to inaccuracy:

Virginia Senate Race

Survey USA
(R) George Allen - 44%
(D) James Webb - 52%

USA Today/Gallup
(R) George Allen - 49%
(D) James Webb - 46%

As you might suspect, USA Today/Gallup and Survey USA conduct their polls in a different mathematical fashion, which can explain why they are so far off.  In a statement from Survey USA, they claim that their polling formula for the state of Virginia is the most accurate, and cite a historical example to explain why:

For those handicapping the contest: in 2005, a SurveyUSA poll inVirginia released one day before the Governor's election, showedDemocrat Tim Kaine with a new and significant lead over RepublicanJerry Kilgore. All previous polling from 6 pollsters had showed therace tied. The Democrat was elected Governor with 52% of the vote.Here, in 2006, in the Senate, it is certainly possible that the contestwill be closer than SurveyUSA polling shows it, and Allen may stillsurprise. But the pattern, one year later, of an almost identical latebreak to the Democrat is striking enough to warrant mention here.

If this poll is indeed accurate, then no microtargeting technology can help George Allen overcome an 8-point deficit with just one day to go.  I have a feeling though that the race will be closer, although Webb still has a slight advantage.  From the data I have looked at, I see no way that George Allen will win by more than two percent, if he wins at all.  The Webb Campaign clearly has the advantage, and has to be happy with the way they have managed their campaign.

VA-Sen: The '06 comeback kid

Down by more than 20 points a couple of months ago, the Webb campaign was struggling to find its message.  Now they are right back in it, even leading in most polls.  But the question is whether or not James Webb can match the excellent microtargeting technology of the Republican campaign machine?  We will find out on election day.

Meanwhile, a new USA Today poll was released on Monday morning, and it puts George allen ahead of James Webb slightly, although within the margin of terror -- making it a statistical tie:

Virginia Senate Race

(R) George Allen - 49%
(D) James Webb - 46%
Undecided - 5%

Where will those undecided voters eventually go?  Do they think George Allen has the spine to hold the President accountable on Iraq, or is it time for someone with actual military experience to offer his fresh take on how to solve our current quagmire?  Webb was Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan.

Friday Senate polling data

I might as well put this all into one post.  Believe it or not, the Democrats might have a better chance of winning Arizona than Tennessee.  Yesterday, Bill Clinton was in Arizona stumping for Democrat Jim Pederson.  You can watch the video here.

Here are the polls:

Tennessee Senate Race (Rasmussen)
(R) Bob Corker - 53%
(D) Harold Ford - 45%

Virginia Senate Race (Rasmussen)
(R) George Allen - 49%
(D) James Webb - 49%

Missouri Senate Race (Rasmussen)
(R) Jim Talent - 48%
(D) Claire McCaskill - 49%

Arizona Senate Race (AZD)
(R) Jon Kyl - 45.8%
(D) Jim Pederson - 41.3%

Pennsylvania Senate Race (MUHLC)
(D) Rick Santorum - 43%
(D) Bob Casey - 51%

Again, Clinton was in Arizona yesterday.  The poll was taken a few days before that -- so it should be interesting if that gave Pederson yet another bump.  If it did, then the Democrats might want to think about taking resources out of Ohio and Pennsylvania, and putting them into Arizona.

Montana poll numbers are not up yet.  As soon as they come in, I will put them up.  That race is close as well.