I'll be at work until 7:30 PM ET, when we will probably know who the winner is. Nonetheless, we are using this post as the thread to discuss the results as they happen. Here is the for this afternoon:
- Begin at 11:30 am PT (2:30 pm ET).
- Preference groups form at 12 pm PT (3:00 pm ET)
- Second alignment begins at 12:15 pm PT (3:15 pm ET)
- Results start coming into Nevada Democratic Party at 2 pm PT (5 pm ET).
The GOP Nevada Caucus and South Carolina primary are today as well.
A just in on the morning of the Nevada Caucus shows Hillary leading by six points, 45% to 39%. However, there is great news for Obama. It seems as though the number of Edwards supporters is falling fast. He was at 25% earlier in the week. Now he only has 6%. That means Edwards supporters could jump to Obama in very close precincts, as it often happens in caucuses, just because supporters of the likely third place finisher might want to make a difference in the overall outcome. Also, there are Kucinich votes too! They might do the same.
Don't get me wrong: the race in Nevada is close. But almost every poll released in the last two days gives Hillary Clinton a slight lead. Most of her support, surprisingly, comes from Las Vegas. Clinton's affect on single women is alive and real, despite Obama's stardom among both unions and young voters. It seems that as Obama has spent time bringing in new endorsements, Hillary has been out on the campaign trail appealing directly to voters -- almost as if the two traded strategies, since it was Obama in the past that engaged directly.
This Hillary strategy isn't a new one. She tried it in 2000 and 2006 in upstate New York, where so many pundits predicted that Republicans in that area would never vote for her. She went out and engaged with them directly and got their support. Now, after that Iowa wakeup call, she is going back to that strategy, and it is working.
Why isn't Obama doing the same? It beats me. Maybe he thinks that bringing some of the Washington establishment onto his side will help him later on down the road. But in the meantime, he is losing an opportunity in Nevada. One new poll has her , and in . Yes, Obama sure does have South Carolina to fall back on. But Obama supporters, like myself, are biting their nails because the current Nevada strategy of remaining distant to voters isn't working. He needs more publicity. With one day to go, time may be running out in Nevada.
As I read the latest political buzz each day from a wide variety of sources, I don't think anyone has touched on how unprecedentedly unique the Nevada primary is shaping out to be. The Nevada contest, at least so it seems, will take place after Iowa and before New Hampshire. Last week, the Edwards Campaign in that state, opening the door for second-tier candidates like to suck up the support of potential Edwards backers.
Richardson and Biden are pouring resources into Nevada, meaning it will probably be their best and only opportunity to make their move. Anything lower than a second place finish would spell doom for their campaigns, since neither of them would have the financial resources to compete in the February 5th primaries without a positive media bounce beforehand. But if Richardson or Biden do finish second, heading into New Hampshire they would establish themselves as the number one alternative to the front-runner. Then it's a whole new ballgame!
's poll was taken on April 11-12, among likely Democratic voters in Nevada:
NEVADA DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton - 35%
Barack Obama - 21%
John Edwards - 15%
Bill Richardson - 5%
Joe Biden - 2%
No other candidate above 1%
Not Sure - 19%
These numbers will change substantially over the next five months. The campaigns have yet to spend a lot of money in that state, even though Nevada will go before New Hampshire. Pretty soon, look for the Obama and Edwards campaigns to watch closely how much Clinton invests in her Nevada infrastructure, and then they will adjust accordingly.
According to this of Democratic voters in Nevada, Clinton has a double-digit lead on Obama. Edwards, even with his connections to the hotel workers union and many state representatives, is far behind.
3/9/07
Hillary Clinton - 32%
Barack Obama - 20%
John Edwards - 11%
This is the first Nevada caucus poll conducted by Research 2000, and is also one of the first of any company. Polling firms have tend to focus more on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. But Nevada is extremely important because it will gage Democratic support in the west just weeks before the big , which is scheduled for February 5th.
If the race is not decided in the first four states, it will definitely be decided in California. The reason why is because California is an all-or-nothing state. Whoever wins gets all the delegates, which is different than most states that tend to divide the delegates up based on the percentage of the vote.
I was going to post a few videos of the first Democratic presidential forum, which took place in Nevada. In the end, there was nothing to report. The session had a different format that I had previously thought. Instead of the candidates debating one another, moderator George Stephanopoulos interviewed each of them one at a time. The candidates were given a two-minute opening statement (which almost no one except Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich kept under two and a half minutes), a few softball questions and a closing statement. The candidates went for applause, not substance.
There was not a lot of new material. However, Hillary Clinton did call for the government to become less dependent on contractors. Joe Biden did the best job of anyone when it came to explaining his Iraq exit strategy without watering himself down in meaningless rhetoric. The audience was very quiet when he spoke about Iraq, but mainly because what he said about de-centralizing the government had a great amount of depth.
Tom Vilsack clearly had the edge on health care. Even though he spoke in policy wonkish language, he got a huge ovation after he finished outlining the complexity of the health care issue because the audience appreciated his thoroughness. He explained that you cannot have universal health care without reforming the entire system on an administrative level.
Bill Richardson, who is by far the most experienced on foreign affairs, did not impress many. In fact, he had a 1988 Bill Clinton moment. At the end of his lengthy introduction, the audience laughed when he told them that he had one more topic to discuss before ceasing what seemed like his never-ending chatter. Although, Richardson was stronger in his closing remark. The New Mexico Governor touted his foreign policy record, which made the lesser experienced candidates like Edwards and Kucinich look less credible when giving their foreign policy positions.
Without making this a very lengthy post, if I had to rank how each candidate did in the debate in terms of their effectiveness in helping themselves in Nevada, I would say that Tom Vilsack won the debate. Here are the rest:
Again, it is still early. The first REAL debate will be in just a few weeks. All the candidates, including Barack Obama, will be present.
Just a reminder that on Wednesday at 3 PM ET/Noon PM PT, every Democratic presidential candidate except Barack Obama will take part in the first candidate forum. The event will take place in Carson City, Nevada, and will be broadcast on C-Span television. (Sorry for not bringing this up earlier, especially when considering the amount of time on this site that I devote to the '08 presidential race. Look for a few clips from that forum to be posted later in the day on The Blue State.)
With Senator Obama a no-show, Hillary Clinton will be front and center -- making her an obvious rhetorical target for the other candidates. Look for the second tier of candidates to be aggressive and hopefully say something worthy of making the network news later that evening.
Already, the Republican National Committee is planning a smear piece on all the candidates, which will be unveiled tomorrow during a at 12:30 PM ET.
UPDATE (2.21.07: 1:10 AM): I almost forgot to include the entire list of candidates that will be there. They are Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack, Chris Dodd and John Edwards.
Recent Comments