The Blue State

New Hampshire running out of ballots

Early reports are in, and it's good news for Barack Obama.  A number of polling places are having difficulty keeping up with the overflow of crowds, meaning that turnout is extremely high today.  Why?  Well, it's a combination of things.

• Young voters are showing up, even more so than Iowans because winter break is over.
• It is warm in the Northeast.  I'm talking about climate change warm!  In a few polling destinations, people are showing up with shorts and a t-shirt.  It is in the upper 50s to lower 60s -- perfect for those who have never voted before.  All you have to do is show up and register there, pick a ballot and you are set.  Might as well do it, since you will be outside today anyway.
• Obama is simply on fire -- that is the most obvious of them all.

WBZ is reporting that some destinations are running out of ballots.  Come on Secretary of State!  Get it together!

Obama's New Hampshire rise on a graph

See for yourself the Obama surge in New Hampshire.  This is quite extraordinary.  Click on the graphic for a larger view:

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY COVERAGE

It's time for our special coverage of the New Hampshire primary.  We will give updates throughout the night.  Keep refreshing for updates:

• 10:51: Obama looks pretty sad, but the charisma is there.  This race is far from over!  Let's continue on to Nevada next week, and then South Carolina.  Have a great night all!
• 10:47: Now watch Hillary cut Obama off in the middle of his speech.
• 10:46: CNN is projecting Hillary Clinton the winner.  This night is over.  Sad, sad, sad.
• 10:45: Obama is about to come out and speak.
• 10:34: The AP is reporting that Clinton has won.
• 10:33: CNN is refusing to call it.
• 10:32: NBC says Hillary Clinton has won.
• 10:31: Hillary is now up by 5,000.  This thing could be over.
• 10:24: As George commented, it seems like the supporters of change that support Obama and Edwards are canceling one another out.  If they were together, they would beat Hillary.
• 10:06: Still, 61% is in.  This is nerve-racking!
• 10:05: Andrea Mitchell of NBC reports that Hanover is not in yet -- which is a university town.
• 9:50: Yes, now it looks like Hillary has what it takes to pull this out tonight.  No, the university towns are still not in.  However, exit polls show that throughout the state Hillary beat Obama among women by 13%.  And 57% of those who voted tonight in the Democratic primary were women.
• 9:42: Chris Matthews may have hit the nail on the head.  Hillary's emotional moment this week may have made a difference among women.  Her support among women tonight is phenomenal.
• 9:38: Clinton now up 3,400 votes.  Still, college towns not in.  Nonetheless, it is nerve-racking.
• 9:37: Clinton up by exactly 3,000 points.  It's 145,197 to 142,197.  Still, college towns have not reported.
• 9:32: With 43% of the precincts in, Clinton's lead is down to 2,100.
• 9:30: Obama will come back.  All the college towns have yet to come in.  CNN is reporting this.  Dartmouth University turnout is 2,000 higher than expected.  That is bad for Hillary.  Those votes have yet to come in as well.  Just hang in there folks.
• 9:28: The numbers are beginning to move a little bit in Obama's way.  The difference is down to around 2,300 with 42% of the precincts counted.
• 9:16: 3,237 is the vote difference.  Hillary still leads.  36% of the precincts have been counted.  However, remember, some precincts have more voters than others.  Many of the college towns have yet to be reported.
• 9:12: It looks like John McCain grabbed a huge support of independents -- possibly siphoning votes away from Obama.
• 9:10: I'm Back, and am officially scared out of my mind with these numbers.
• 8:26: Gonna grab some dinner.  Hillary is still ahead.  Be back in 10 minutes.
• 8:24: Hillary Clinton leads 40% to 35%.  Only 13% of the precincts have been counted.  Again, it's the rural ones.
• 8:22: Another example of how the early poll numbers only reflect the rural areas.  Chester precinct, for example, is way out in the middle of nowhere.  These are Hillary supporters.
• 8:18: I did some quick research.  The counties that have been reported are the rural ones.  Millsfield County, in particular, is far north.  The counties with the universities haven't been counted yet.
• 8:12: McCain has won, according to NBC.
• 8:11: 659 votes separate Clinton and Obama, with only 12% in.  Getting a bit more nervous now.  If Clinton finishes within five points, they can spin that they are coming back.
• 8:05: There are 301 precincts in New Hampshire.  28 have been reported, and Obama is down by one.  If it remains that close when we get to 100 precincts, then it will be time to worry.
• 8:02: Clinton is slightly ahead still.  I have the feeling this will be closer than we earlier thought.  About 10% are in.
• 8:00: CNN reports that John Edwards will finish third.
• 7:56: Will Hillary's fear tactic work?  She said today that there might be a terrorist attack, and that we need a president who is prepared.
• 7:51: There are new rumblings that Hillary Clinton is leading.  With six percent of the precincts reporting, she is up by 2%.  However, a commenter over at Kos claimed that this was Northern New Hampshire, where there are mostly older voters.
• 7:43: Polls are about to close in about 20 minutes.  We should know the results of the Democratic race immediately at 8 PM ET.

Confident about Obama

Going into this 8 PM ET poll closure in New Hampshire, I am more confident than ever about Barack Obama.  On Thursday of last week, I was quite skeptical, and thought maybe Edwards might pick up enough votes from Kucinich, Dodd, Richardson and Biden supporters in order to finish on top.  Now, four days removed from the media bounce that followed the Iowa Caucus, Obama is way ahead in New Hampshire.  He will win today.  The Illinois Senator may even hit the 40% range, which is bad news for John McCain because many of those votes will come from independents that chose to vote in the Democratic primary instead of the Republican contest.

The only thing I worry about in the long-term is that the media might be over-hyping Obama, which in American pop culture could lead to a rapid decline sometime in the near future.  When a pop figure like Obama is in the spotlight, the media then looks for a flaw that they can jump on and make a story out of.  After New Hampshire, Obama needs to be particularly careful -- especially during interviews and off the record conversations.  Keep small talk to a minimum.  The Hillary campaign is drooling to find something on him, and they can't, other than the mysterious complaint that if you aren't in Washington your whole life that somehow disqualifies you from being president.

In summary, Obama will win tonight.  But in the days and weeks ahead, he still has three eager opponents and the media that will soon ratchet up the pressure.  This race to the nomination is not over -- not at all!

Daily Iowa Insider: McCain gets in Obama's way

This is really not the news that Barack Obama fans need.  John McCain is climbing in the polls, even in Iowa where he isn't liked by mainstream Republicans.  If he finishes third or a surprising second, independent voters in New Hampshire will likely choose to vote in the Republican contest instead of selecting a Democratic ballot.  Bad news for Obama.  The Illinois Senator needs the support of independent voters in New Hampshire in order to beat Hillary, who is still very strong in that state among rank and file Democrats.

So what does this have to do with Iowa?  Well, quite simply, it gives Democrats an even greater incentive to care what happens in the Republican race there, as it will affect the next voting state, which casts its ballots just five days later.  Anti-Hillary Democrats ought to hope that McCain finishes as poorly as possible in Iowa.  An ideal Republican finish in Iowa would consist of Huckabee, Romney and Thompson/Giuliani in the top-three.  The latest GOP Iowa poll shows a recent McCain surge.

American Research Group:

IOWA REPUBLICANS
Mike Huckabee - 28%
John McCain - 20%
Mitt Romney - 17%
Rudolph Giuliani - 13%

In New Hampshire, at the moment, McCain and Romney are tied.

NH-08: Obama ahead of Clinton

Barack Obama is surging at the perfect time, and there is nothing Hillary can do about it.  If she attacks him, there will be a backlash in the polls.  The only way she can do it is through "independent" political action committees.  So as Obama has remained positive, he is surging in New Hampshire, a state where he trailed by about 20 points a few weeks ago:

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATS
(Likely primary voters)
Barack Obama - 32%
Hillary Clinton - 31%
John Edwards - 18%
Bill Richardson - 8%

Of course, remember that New Hampshire will be greatly impacted by whatever happens in Iowa.  If Hillary can squeak out a win in Iowa, Obama's support could collapse in New Hampshire.

NH-2008: Why Hillary is falling in New Hampshire

A Marist College poll, released over the weekend, shows that Hillary's 21-point lead over Barack Obama has quickly fallen by 10 points since last month.  So what is happening?  Obama has successfully targeted male voters 45-years and older, who have a proven history of showing up to vote on primary day:

 Although Hillary Clinton has seen a decline insupport among many groups within New Hampshire’s likely Democratic Primaryelectorate, one of the biggest changes has been among men forty-five years ofage and older. Last month, she led bothBarack Obama and John Edwards by 20 percentage points among this group. It is now a three-way contest.  

Also, Obama is now winning among first-time voters.

In a turnabout from last month’s poll, Obamanow leads Clinton by 13 percentage points among first time voters. He trailed Clinton by 19 percentage pointsamong first time voters in the earlier poll. Nearly one in five likely Democratic primary voters has never beforevoted in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary. 

It's a whole new ballgame.

(Note: In a few previous posts, I wrote that the Democratic debate this week is on Wednesday.  It is actually on Thursday.)

NH-2008: More info on Hillary's drop in New Hampshire polls

Last night and this morning I alluded to two polls that will be released later this weekend that will give bad news about Hillary Clinton's support in New Hampshire.  Although a few bloggers have been shown the polls in advance, a gag order has been requested until Sunday.

However, The Atlantic blog is telling us a little bit more about Hillary's decline:

Two new reputable polls of New Hampshire Democratic Primary voterswill show statistically significant drops in support for frontrtunnerHillary Clinton, Democrats who have seen those polls said today.

The polls will be released this weekend and are embargoed; thoughI'm not privy to the embargo agreement, I'll be a little vague out ofrespect for the polling organizations.

One of the polls shows that the gap between Clinton and Barack Obamanarrowed by more than 10 points. Her biggest decline was seen amongolder voters.

The other shows Clinton's lead over Obama reduced by approximately 9 points.

John Edwards remains at about 15 percent in both.

Barack Obama is making his move, and over the next week you will see Hillary be much more aggressive in pointing out the perceived "lack of experience" on the part of the Illinois Senator.  Sparks should fly in Wednesday's debate.

I will post these two polls as soon as they become available tomorrow.

Something great happening in New Hampshire

As I will report in the Blue Radar tomorrow morning, the polls in New Hampshire have changed dramatically over the last week.  According to one source, a poll to be released later this weekend will show a significant drop in support for Hillary Clinton, who had led in that state by 20 points in some surveys.  The change makes New Hampshire a three-way race between Hillary, Obama and Edwards.

If you think the "authenticity" issue is hurting Hillary Clinton now, just wait until the general election.

NH-2008: Why Hillary will root for Ron Paul

Iowa is a very important state because it will determine whether Hillary Clinton runs away with the nomination.  If Obama or Edwards win, the race will move to New Hampshire, where independent voters make up 45% of the electorate.  These independents will need to make a decision: Democratic ballot or Republican ballot?  They can only pick one.

Political wisdom suggests that if Obama or Edwards win Iowa (especially in Obama's case), a flood of New Hampshire independents will vote in the Democratic contest because they will want to see Hillary go down.  If McCain loses big in Iowa, even more registered New Hampshire independents will want to vote in the Democratic race, fearing that McCain is done and there is no point in filling out a Republican ballot.

This is all good news for Obama and Edwards.  But there is one variable they are leaving out: the Ron Paul factor.

Earlier this week, Ron Paul raked in $4.3 million in just 24 hours.  If this keeps up, he will be able to increase his campaign resources in early states, including Iowa.  If Paul finishes as high as third in Iowa, he will become the media darling overnight, and be labeled as the independent maverick Republican (sound familiar?).  Obama or Edwards, should they win Iowa, could count on significantly less independents crossing over to help beat Hillary in New Hampshire.  Plus, Ron Paul is basing his campaign in New Hampshire more than anywhere else.  He will attract a lot of independents -- keeping them from voting for Hillary's number one competitor.

Whether Obama or Edwards put up a fight in New Hampshire will depend on the attractiveness of Ron Paul to independent voters.