The Blue State

New Hampshire primary may be moved to December

The 2008 Democratic presidential nomination could be decided in 2007.  New Hampshire's Secretary of State is mulling over the idea of moving the state's primaries ahead of Iowa, all the way up to December:

"I have a lot of discretion," said Bill Gardner, the 16-term secretaryof state of New Hampshire, who is invested with what amounts todictatorial power to set the date under state law. "We are prepared, ifit needs to be early December, it can be early December."

Or it may stick to a date in early January. Gardner is still playingcoy, though increasingly less so, with his open hints about December.

This would be a huge victory for Hillary Clinton to have New Hampshire vote first.  She has the strongest organization there of any candidate, and is lagging behind Edwards and especially Obama in Iowa.

However, it is likely that if New Hampshire moved theirs to December, Iowa would then move its primary to earlier that month.  Either way, we might be looking at a December to remember as far as presidential politics is concerned.

Just how many New Hampshire independents will show up

There is something special about New Hampshire.  In Iowa, the contest is usually decided by carefully-calculated, hardcore Democratic activists that take into account the unique responsibility they have in choosing an electable candidate for the general election.  New Hampshire is much different in that it comes down to independent voters:

Independent voters, or undeclared voters as they are called here, makeup 45 percent of the electorate, up from 28 percent in 1996, when thelegislature changed the law to simplify same-day registration.

So who would benefit and who would lose from these independent voters?  Adam Nagourney has an idea:

The shift has injected turmoil and uncertainty into thefirst-in-the-nation primaries, experts and campaign officials said.That creates an opportunity for Mr. Obama while posing complications tothe candidacies of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

It poses complications for McCain because any independent voters that choose to vote Republican will probably vote for him, as was the case in 2000.  However, that might not happen this year because so many independents are leaning Democratic.  As for Obama and Hillary, New Hampshire voters tend to pick the fresh, young face.  They did that in 1992, when they took a chance on a young Governor from Arkansas.

If New Hampshire independents vote overwhelmingly Democratic, then Obama might win.  If they split evenly, Hillary will get it.  Almost all of the New Hampshire polls, which show Hillary way ahead, are only conducted among New Hampshire Democrats, not independents as well.  Obama can only hope that New Hampshire independents show up or else he will have trouble pulling this one out.

Candidates that are electable in the general election are able to win independent votes.  If Obama has the support of independents, doesn't that make him the most electable?

Video: Richardson releases anti-war ad in New Hampshire

Ahead of the debate that is just hours from now, Bill Richardson is releasing this ad in New Hampshire an attempt to clearly distinguish himself from Hillary, Obama and Edwards:

Interestingly, no speaking from Richardson himself at all, except for at the end when he says, "I'm Bill Richardson, and I approve this message."

You will notice that the ad touts Richardson's new web site, GetOurTroopsOut.com.

New Hampshire debate prep

We are entering the home stretch before the first primary contests.  Third quarter fundraising totals will come out after Friday at a time of each campaign's choosing.  John Edwards and Barack Obama are competing to pick up the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) endorsement.  Three days ago, Hillary Clinton turned it up a notch and appeared on all five Sunday talk shows.  This is the real deal, folks.

Tonight's debate is by far the most critical of any others thus far.  Not only do we have about 100 days until the first vote, but this debate happens to be in New Hampshire, which is likely to leapfrog Nevada and vote second.  Analysts are expecting a large viewing audience tonight in the Granite State.  With a lot on the line, here is what each of the major candidates must do:

• Hillary Clinton: Don't mess up.  You coasted through the five news shows on Sunday unscathed.  Good job.  Now here comes a harder test.  This is a field of candidates know you are the front-runner, and will do anything to pick you apart as a Washington insider.  So take the hits, but don't take any rhetorical risks.  This debate is yours to lose.
• Barack Obama: Think aggressive and think big.  This is the one downside of branding yourself as above the typical political discourse.  Sometimes you have to get your feet muddy and play hardball.  Tonight is one of those nights.  In a new CNN poll, Obama trails Clinton by 20 points.  The deficit was only 9 points in July.  Obama must be aggressive.  So how do you do that against the Clintons?  Think big -- which is everything the Clintons are.  Think in terms of big ideas.  Play to your strengths by wowing people with your charisma.  Remind New Hampshire voters what they liked about you in 2004 and earlier this year during your Chicago announcement.  It's time to step it up, or get out of the way and let someone else take on Hillary.
• John Edwards: Be the anti-Hillary candidate.  For Edwards, this debate should not be about Hillary Clinton -- it should be about Barack Obama.  The SEIU stopped short of endorsing Edwards because they were worried about whether he was better suited than Obama to beat Hillary.  With that endorsement hanging in the balance, Edwards will need to make the case that he, not Obama, is the most viable alternative to the former First Lady.
• Bill Richardson: Think big and loosen up.  People know about his resume and his position on Iraq.  What people don't know is what kind of person he is, and what kind of political philosophy he would implement.  Richardson also needs to show some passion, and not come across as too polished.  He is a western Senator, and he should look like it.  Loosen up a bit too while you are at it.  Tell some jokes, and at least try to mean them this time.
• Joe Biden: Don't yell.  People know you are passionate about foreign policy.  But show that same passion on other issues too.  And while you are at it, stop yelling -- it's not very presidential.  Voters have been waiting for him to show a softer side.  Like Richardson, show voters what kind of person you are.

The debate starts at 9 PM ET.  Don't forget to join us for the live chat.  Yap away with fellow progressives as you watch the debate on television.

Edwards: No corporate Democratic White House

As I referred to earlier this morning in the Blue Radar, John Edwards is trying to distinguish himself from Hillary Clinton as the 'change candidate'.  In an obvious knock on Hillary, Edwards said in a speech today that change can't happen by just winning the White House.  We need to kick out the establishment from both parties:

“The choice for our party could not be more clear,” Edwards saidin Hanover, N.H. “We cannot replace a group of corporate Republicanswith a group of corporate Democrats, just swapping the Washingtoninsiders of one party for the Washington insiders of the other.

“The American people deserve to know that their presidency is notfor sale, the Lincoln Bedroom is not for rent, and lobbyist money canno longer influence policy in the House or the Senate,” Edwards added.

Neither John Edwards nor Barack Obama have taken a dime from currently registered federal lobbyists.

There is no doubt that John Edwards has consistently been strong during the debates.  What turns off some voters is his perceived lack of authenticity, arisen in part from the public's overall distrust of lawyers.  Edwards needs to remember that Iowa voters don't only weigh a candidate's likability.  They want a leader that can win a general election.  Edwards needs to convince voters that he is indeed electable.   Part of his answer then rests on defeating the notion that he is just a slickly scripted trial lawyer, and instead is genuinely presidential.  Much of that can certainly be done between now and January, but it has to start soon.

OPINION: John McCain wins New Hampshire Debate

To be fair to the other side, two days after enjoying the Democratic debate, we sat there and listened to 120 minutes of the Republican candidates explaining why the Iraq war was worth it and why Hillary Clinton is bad.

Instead, of writing a huge column about this, I'm just going to cut straight to the chase.  Four of our five editors voted on these rankings:

1. John McCain: Clearly stood out from the pack.  Showed flashes of lightning moderation on social issues like immigration, language and tolerance of other races.  He was aggressive, but not desperate like last debate.
2. Ron Paul: As a candidate who was ridiculed by conservative talk radio, he stood his ground on foreign policy and was applauded on multiple occasions.  He made the best out of the short time Wolf Blitzer gave him to speak.  He was thorough, to the point, and effectively touted his credentials as a student of the constitution.
3. Tommy Thompson: Had the best response on health care, and effectively pointed out his experience as an executive.
4. Mike Huckabee: His performance gave 'values voters' a reason to look at him before Brownback.
5. Tom Tancredo: Courageously took Bush to task for his big government conservatism, and came across as a true conservative.  This debate will not help him much.  But between Tancredo and Duncan Hunter -- the other Southwestern anti-immigration candidates -- Tancredo was definitely on higher ground by the time the debate ended.
6. Rudolph Giuliani: Maybe all that lightning was a message from God.  The best moment for him on global warming.
7. Mitt Romney: McCain made him look like a hypocrite for opposing other languages but putting his campaign ads in Spanish.
8. Jim Gilmore: Effective in explaining how he can woo independent voters.  Other than that, nada.
9. Duncan Hunter: Showed little depth besides on immigration.
10. Sam Brownback: Grant it, he was not given much time to talk.  But thinking back on it, can you recall anything he said?  Case and point.

Feel free to add your take in the comment box.

New IA, NH and SC '08 polling

These polls came in just hours ago.  Edwards maintains a lead in Iowa, while New Hampshire and South Carolina, as of now, are still in the Clinton column (conducted 4/27 through 4/30 among likely Democratic primary voters):

IOWA
John Edwards - 27%
Hillary Clinton - 23%
Barack Obama - 19%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Hillary Clinton - 37%
John Edwards - 26%
Barack Obama - 14%

SOUTH CAROLINA
Hillary Clinton - 36%
Barack Obama - 24%
John Edwards - 18%

Take your pick: Clinton, Edwards or Obama?  Unless Gore enters the race, it will be those three candidates from here on out.  Neither Bill Richardson nor Chris Dodd helped themselves out in last week's debate, and their campaigns appear to have hit a rock.  As for Biden, although he did exceed expectations in the debate, his lack of fundraising will make it nearly impossible for him to compete by the time September and October roll around.

ARG releases new '08 Dem polling data from IA, NH, AR & TX

American Research Group released its monthly batch of polling for some of the early primary/caucus states.  By looking at the findings from this month, it is pretty clear that Obama helped himself a lot by speaking in Austin a few weeks back.  The current Illinois Senator might want to think about spending more time in Iowa.  Speaking of Iowa, Edwards benefited a lot from Vilsack's departure from the race.

IOWA DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton - 34%
John Edwards - 33%
Barack Obama - 16%
Joe Biden - 2%
Wesley Clark - 2%
Everyone else - 1%
Undecided - 10%

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton - 37%
Barack Obama - 23%
John Edwards - 20%
Joe Biden - 2%
Bill Richardson - 2%
Everyone else - 1%
Undecided - 12%

TEXAS DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton - 34%
Barack Obama - 32%
John Edwards - 11%
Joe Biden - 4%
Wesley Clark - 4%
Bill Richardson - 4%
Chris Dodd - 1%
Undecided - 10%

ARKANSAS DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton - 49%
Barack Obama - 16%
John Edwards - 12%
Wesley Clark - 8%
Joe Biden - 2%
Bill Richardson - 2%
Undecided - 11%

A few points here:

• Clark's strong showing in Arkansas is largely because he is from there.
• Bill Richardson is not making any progress in the polls at all.  He is the only governor left in the Democratic field of candidates.
• John Edwards' 20% showing in New Hampshire is not a fluke.  Though, it is nonetheless a surprise.  Edwards never polls well in that state.  Keep in mind that all of these polls were taken just days before Elizabeth Edwards announced that her cancer had returned.

Latest New Hampshire Poll

Barack Obama is slowly working his way up in the polls.

Franklin Pierce/WBZ Poll -- 3/13:

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Hillary Clinton - 32%
Barack Obama - 25%
John Edwards - 16%
Al Gore - 10%
Bill Richardson - 3%
Dennis Kucinich - 2%
Wesley Clark - 1%
Chris Dodd - (no data)
Mike Gravel - 0%
Al Sharpton - 0%

When it comes to the highest formability rating, Barack Obama and John Edwards are tied with 78%.  The highest unfavorable ratings go to Dennis Kucinich (29%) and Joe Biden (28%).  Although, Biden's fiery Iraq speech earlier this week may have helped him some.

Burglary at New Hampshire Democratic headquarters

No, the Republican Party would not be dumb enough to have a direct hand in it.  Or would they?  Apparently, this break in at the New Hampshire Democratic headquarters happened over the weekend, and just broke the news wires a few hours ago:

Office workers reported the break-in to police on Monday. ConcordPolice Sgt. Mike McGuire said some items were taken, but he declined tobe more specific. The assessment was the same from Kathy Sullivan, thechairwoman of the state Democratic Party.

"Some things were taken, but I don't really want to get into that right now," Sullivan said on Tuesday.

There was no indication that any personal financial information was taken, said party spokeswoman Kathleen Strand.

"We want to assure our donors that their personal financialinformation, as far as we can tell, has been protected, and we hope tofind out who did this soon," she said.

I will stay on top of this.  The way news works these days, we will know very fast whether this was a Watergate-like incident, some fringe right-wing group or just a random robbery.  If I were in Vegas, I would put twenty of those five-dollar chips on the first and second options.