The conventional wisdom in Washington is that Hillary Clinton can win on money alone. Maybe someone forgot to tell the high-priced consultants that citizens, not our currency, are the ones who cast the ballots
:
IOWA Hillary Clinton - 24% John Edwards - 24% Barack Obama - 18% Tom Vilsack - 9% Joe Biden - 4%
NEW HAMPSHIRE Hillary Clinton - 27% Barack Obama - 23% John Edwards - 13%
Pollster still thinks the race is wide open:
“There is no inevitability factor here. Hillary nodoubt got a bounce from her campaign kick-off announcement, just asEdwards got a bounce from his, and just as Obama is certain to benefitfrom his announcement this weekend. One could even note that DelawareSen. Joe Biden got a 33% boost after officially announcing his campaignlast week. Let’s be realistic here – I don’t see any early runaways inthis game. This is a real race for the nomination.â€
There are a few key points to make:
In Iowa, John Edwards leads Hillary among men 27% to 21%. Among women, Hillary leads Edwards 28% to 21%.
In New Hampshire, men favor Obama over Hillary 28% to 17%, and Clinton wins among women 32% to 27%.
A brand new conducted a few days ago by CNN/WMUR and given to likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire puts Hillary Clinton in the lead, with Obama and Edwards trailing by more than ten points. However, Clinton's lead is less than in many other polls:
NEW HAMPSHIRE (conducted February 1 - 5) Hillary Clinton - 35% Barack Obama - 21% John Edwards - 16% Al Gore - 8% Joe Biden - 3% No other candidate was above 3%
When you look at the inside the poll, Barack Obama and John Edwards have the lowest unfavorable rating of likely Democratic primary voters. The candidate with the highest unfavorable rating is Al Sharpton. Edwards and Clinton are tied for the best favorable rating (74). Lastly, 69% of undeclared primary voters plan to vote in the the Democratic primary, while only 32% say they will vote in the Republican primary.
I enjoy reading polls more than any other because of how they break voters down into the most specific groups. On Monday night, released a poll taken by voters in New Hampshire that said they will likely to take part in the Democratic primary next January. It asked them point-blank: Clinton, Obama, Edwards or someone else? Putting it simply, Clinton has a commanding lead. But when you break the poll down into key social categories, you find which Democratic voters like which candidates. I will do my best to break this poll down for you all.
Overall, among likely Democratic primary voters, here are the results:
New Hampshire Hillary Clinton - 40% Barack Obama - 25% John Edwards - 23% Other Democrat - 9% Undecided - 3%
You might be thinking, "This race is over." But it's not.
Age-wise, Hillary carries every single age group. Obama is strongest among the 18 - 34 crowd, while Edwards is strongest among baby-boomers.
The Illinois Senator closes the gap among men, narrowly losing to Hillary by a 35% to 29% margin.
As far as ideology, this one is interesting. The "conservative" Democrats sure like Hillary:
New Hampshire "Conservative" Democratic Voters Hillary Clinton - 56% John Edwards - 19% Barack Obama - 18%
Clearly though, there is one key demographic that likes Hillary Clinton much less: independents:
New Hampshire "Independents" Hillary Clinton - 33% Barack Obama - 32% John Edwards - 21%
Among people that voted for Bush in 2004, Obama bests Hillary:
New Hampshire '04 Bush Supporters Barack Obama - 35% Hillary Clinton - 30% John Edwards - 21%
Obama also beats Hillary among those who did not vote in 2004:
New Hampshire '04 Non-Voters Barack Obama - 46% Hillary Clinton - 37% John Edwards - 17%
While John Edwards does not win over any category, he does come close among Democratic voters that oppose marijuana for medical purposes:
New Hampshire Primary Voters that Oppose Medical Marijuana Hillary Clinton - 38% John Edwards - 34% Barack Obama - 21%
There are a number of other fun categories too -- which you can .
All in all, Hillary Clinton is definitely way ahead in New Hampshire. She received a huge bounce in the week and a half since her announcement. However, if you want to make the case for the most electable candidate, Barack Obama certainly bests Clinton. He wins among independent voters. He wins among people that supported Bush in 2004. He wins among the few that did not vote in 2004. If Democrats are looking for new voters, then their best candidate might be Obama.
As far as where each candidate needs to improve, most of this is straight-forward. Edwards needs to court more youth voters, while Obama needs to go for the older ones. Both Edwards and Obama should strive to win over female voters, otherwise they will not win one primary.
This is just one of many polls between now and next January that I will break down so all of us can have a clear idea how each candidate needs to improve. Remember though, this is only New Hampshire. Iowa and Nevada vote before that!
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