The Blue State

Cheney attempting to undercut Bush on North Korea

Recently, the Bush Administration changed its strategy of letting China control negotiations with North Korea to engaging with Kim Jong IL's regime directly.  The State Department is to thank for persuading Bush to begin bilateral talks.  Ironically, this is just a few years after Condoleezza Rice was convinced that bilateral talks would not work.  Now they are on the edge of a breakthrough.

This new approach is upsetting Dick Cheney.  One of the Vice President's loyal soldiers, John Bolton, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, is lobbying hard to undercut any bilateral successes with the North:

Former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton is urging GOP lawmakers tooppose the Bush administration’s recent agreement with North Korea toend its nuclear programs, according to House Republican sources.

WhileBolton’s skepticism of North Korea is well-known, this is believed tobe the first time a former top adviser to the president has taken theunusual step of lobbying against a pillar of the administration’scurrent foreign policy. It is particularly surprising given the valuethe administration has placed on loyalty.

If North Korea disarms, that would give the U.S. a reason to stop flexing its sticks as much in Southeast Asia.  Cheney's allies do not want that.

Remember, it was John Bolton that Bush brought in by way of recess appointment because the Senate Foreign Relations Committee refused to confirm him.  And it was this same John Bolton who was responsible for the breakdown in talks with North Korea earlier this decade when he had a different job under Bush.

Bolton desperately wants to prevent any breakthrough with the North, and will go to great lengths to do that -- even if it goes against Bush.  And as we have seen from history, Bolton never does anything without Dick Cheney's approval.

Just think: a sitting Vice President trying to undercut a sitting President.  Has this happened before?

South Korean president goes at it with Bush

Korean president Roh Moo-hyun's frustration over the US' policy towards North Korea reached a boiling point during a press conference with President Bush on Friday:

The tense moments with Roh came as the leaderseach made statements to reporters after their meeting. Roh concludedhis by questioning why Bush hadn't mention the issue of the war's end.

"I might be wrong. I think I did not hearPresident Bush mention a declaration to end the Korean War just now,"Roh said through an interpreter. "Did you say so, President Bush?"

"It's up to Kim Jong Il," Bush said.

Roh pressed on. "If you could be a little bitclearer," he said, prompting nervous laughter from the U.S. delegationand a look of annoyance from Bush.

Of course, the White House quickly backtracked:

The White House acted quickly to downplay the awkward exchange.National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe, said "there wasclearly something lost in translation during the photo op."

Didn't look like it to me.

Even though the South Korean President's exchange with Bush may have irked the older generation in his country, since they have always been warm to US policy, it underscores how lonely the US is in the world community.  Britain is withdrawing from Iraq.  South Korea is now angry.  Japan and Australia might be Bush's biggest allies.  However, the anti-war protests in Australia all week long will put pressure on Prime Minister John Howard to distance himself from Bush.

Analysis: Hillary's "Preconditions" Rule Actually is Bush-Light

The feud between Clinton and Obama rages on.  Clinton believes the US should have preconditions before talking to US foes.  On the other hand, Obama contends that a policy of preconditions before diplomacy is "Bush-light."

Yesterday, Hillary Clinton shot back:

“You know, I have been called a lot of things in my life, but I havenever been called George Bush or Dick Cheney certainly,” Clinton toldCNN’s John King.

Actually, when you do the research, Clinton's idea of preconditions before diplomacy is analogous to what we have seen over the last six years, and it has produced negative results:

• In 2003, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun slammed President Bush, and pleaded with him to meet with North Korea without preconditions: "We can solve a difficult problem.  It is important to meet in person without any preconditions and have dialogues."  Ironically, it was not until this month when the Bush Administration agreed to meet with North Korea without preconditions that the Pyongyang-based government agreed to suspend its plutonium enrichment.
• In 2006, the New York Times reported that President Bush required Syria and Iran to follow certain preconditions before the US would meet with them: "The president then laid out preconditions for talks with the Syriangovernment. Nor did Mr. Bush give any ground on Iran, insteadreiterating his long-held stance that the Iranian government mustsuspend the enrichment of uranium before Washington will join talks." Obviously, that has not worked.  Iran is still building up its nuclear program, and Syria is still a breeding ground for Islamic extremism.
• Last month, Bill Richardson, former Energy Secretary under Bill Clinton, encouraged the Bush Administration to abandon its demand of preconditions and meet with Iran bilaterally: "That is why a full-court press on engaging Iran – with nopreconditions, and no illusions - is in the American national securityinterest."  That puts Hillary at odds with Richardson, not just Obama.

Lastly, Hillary Clinton's policy of preconditions contradicts that of her husband's administration.  In 1994, US negotiators met bilaterally with North Korea and signed the 1994 Agreed Framework, which dismantled Kim Jong IL's plutonium-based nuclear weapons program.  Had it not been for that bilateral agreement, experts conclude that North Korea would have up to 50 nuclear bombs today.  So sometimes meeting with our foes even without preconditions can produce positive results.

Both Hillary Clinton and George W. Bush seem to disagree.

Proof that the bilateral approach works

After more than six years of refusing to conduct direct negotiations with the North Koreans, with nothing to show for it, the White House is finally understanding that direct, face-to-face bilateral talks pay off.

Just days ago, special US envoy Christopher Hill flew to North Korea.  Now, the North Koreans have agreed to shut down their nuclear reactor in three weeks:

The United States expects North Korea to shut down the reactor at theheart of its atomic arms development within about three weeks, top U.S.nuclear envoy Christopher Hill said on Saturday.

For obvious reasons, the White House will not want to admit that their previous policy of relying on China to disarm North Korea was a failure.  Expect for them to use this recent breakthrough as vindication that the Six Party Talks had worked all along.  But it was not until Christopher Hill personally flew to North Korea when things were finally set in motion.

Bush wants U.S. troops to remain in Iraq like in Korea

More than 50 years after the start of the Korean War, and U.S. troops still remain at the DMZ ready to be used.  This is how Bush sees the future of U.S. military policy in Iraq:

White House spokesman Tony Snow said Bush would like to see a U.S. role in Iraq ultimately similar to that in South Korea.

"The Korean model is one in which the United States provides a securitypresence, but you've had the development of a successful democracy inSouth Korea over a period of years, and, therefore, the United Statesis there as a force of stability," Snow told reporters.

Is the White House really serious -- or is this just yet an attempt to compare Bush's legacy to those of Truman and Eisenhower?

Even if Bush was serious, a few obvious worries come to mind:

• The Middle East is not at all like the Korean Peninsula -- neither socially, economically nor geopolitically.
• Where would the DMZ be in Iraq?  Baghdad?  Good luck with that!
• U.S. troops in Iraq for the next 50 years?  Do we have the resources to fund that?

Democratic Presidential Candidate and Gov.of New Mexico Bill Richardson, isleading a delegation to discuss North Korea's nuclear weapons program.Richardson is probably one of the better U.S. Ambassadors in history, and has arather impressiveresume.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, leading a U.S.delegation on a visit to North Korea, said he believed Pyongyang was ready toend its nuclear weapons program and improve relations with the United States,NBC Nightly News reported on Sunday.

"I believe for the first time they do want to enter into an agreementwith the six-party countries and they want a better relationship with the UnitedStates," Richardson told NBC.

"They know that the key is dismantling their nuclear weapons."

The complete article is here: Richardsonsees N. Korea set for nuclear deal

 

Editorial on North Korea Breakthrough: Bush finally rejected the ideal and accepted the real

It may have been ideal for any U.S. deal with the North Koreans to rest on the pre-condition that Kim Jong IL first dismantle his nuclear program.  But that was not a realistic expectation.  Because North Korea was labeled as a member of the Axis of Evil, they were obviously paranoid about being attacked and therefore wanted an assurance that we would not do so if they agreed to disarm.  If two cowboys point their pistols at one another, it is unrealistic for one to tell the other, "Put yours down first, and then I will."  Both sides had to make concessions at the same time.

Six years and an estimated 12 new plutonium-based nuclear weapons later, the Administration finally stopped believing that it could get North Korea to disarm without giving the regime a way out of its economic misery.  Mr. President, when you start acknowledging the realism that drives the international system, you can actually accomplish a lot diplomatically.

North Korea's civilian economy is in shambles.  In recent decades, in order to make up some of the lost revenue, they have grown increasingly reliant on their military economy, which has includes selling arms to foreign buyers.  The worry is that some of those arms could end up in the hands of terrorists.  What former diplomats such as Bill Richardson had been urging the Bush Administration to do was take the leadership role in helping North Korea rebuild its civilian economy, so that the government would not have to rely so heavily on its military economy to support its citizenry.  The less Kim Jong IL depends on his military economy, the less his government will be tempted to sell dangerous weapons on the black market.  For six years, the Bush Administration ignored these long-time diplomats that have encouraged the President to engage North Korea.  Finally, after all these wrongs, the Administration is beginning to make a right through a policy of engagement.

Bush may offer concessions to North Korea

If this were Bill Clinton, some Republicans would want him charged for treason.  The Bush Administration is so desperate to get a deal done with North Korea that they are not offering to ease sanctions if the North Koreans simply agree to begin talks once again:

The Bush administration is considering action to free some NorthKorean bank accounts as part of a deal to restart the stalled talks oneliminating the isolated communist regime's nuclear weapons.

The package under discussion would have North Korea agree to disableits Yongbyon reactor, which produces plutonium for nuclear weapons, andre-admit International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, according toU.S. officials and independent experts who've been briefed on thedetails. The North also would have to provide an inventory of itsnuclear infrastructure, experts said.

We should have taken care of this back in 2001.  Of course, the Bush Administration believed that Six Party Talks were the answer (in other words, outsourcing our foreign policy to China).  Bush refused to engage bilaterally with the North, even though Bill Richardson had pleaded with the Administration to try that road.

Six Party Talks with North Korea collapse

Since this has been a very slow news week, the news on North Korea went completely under the radar.  The Six Party Talks that just ended were an embarrassing failure.

U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill, who left the meetings with no such luck, summed up the disarray:

By the end of the week the frustration was evidently getting to U.S.negotiator Christopher Hill. "One day it's financial issues," theassistant secretary of state was quoted as saying, "another day it'ssomething they want but they know they can't have, another day it'ssomething we said about them that hurt their feelings." Hill returnedto the U.S. for the Christmas break Saturday, suggesting that talksmight resume early in the new year. Let's hope he has a good rest —2007 promises to be a long, long year.

Does this Administration know anything at all about diplomacy?  Why has Bush never sent a special envoy to the region?  How about, instead of outsourcing our foreign policy to China, talking with the North Koreans face-to-face?  Many U.S. experts on North Korea, including Bill Richardson, think we can do just fine without China's help.

Bilateralism worked under Bill Clinton.  Had it not been for the 1994 Agreed Framework, it is estimated that North Korea would have up to 50 plutonium-based nuclear weapons today.  The Agreed Framework shut down North Korea's plutonium-enrichment program.  Between the time that the treaty was signed and the end of Clinton's last term, not one nuclear weapon was built.  Under Bush's watch, North Korea obtained enough plutonium for six nuclear weapons.

Of course, Bush has said repeatedly that he will not engage North Korea bilaterally.  He has made it perfectly clear that we will do it his way, or no way at all. 

Is that stubbornness or just plain hubris?

Bush to offer concession deal to Kim Jong IL

A South Korean newspaper is reporting that President Bush is preparing to offer North Korean leader Kim Jong IL a huge concession package that would end the Korean War.  Bush and Jong IL may even sign the deal in person.

The nuclear standoff on the Korean Peninsula appears to be coming to an end.  Bogged down in the Middle East and facing a growing erosion of public support back home, President Bush wants North Korea off his back, even if it means offering major concessions.  During his trip to Vietnam in November, Mr. Bush told the Vietnamese leader that he is preparing to dramatically reverse his policy towards North Korea.  He is considering a deal that would end the Korean War if Kim Jong IL, the North Korean leader, agrees to abandon his nuclear weapons program.

A South Korean newspaper called The Chosun Libo has the low-down:

A diplomatic source in Seoul on Wednesday said Bush made the offerduring a meeting with President Roh Moo-hyun in Hanoi, Vietnam on Nov.18. "President Bush made remarks while talking about building apermanent peace framework on the peninsula,” the source said. "As faras I know, he made remarks to effect that he is willing to sign anagreement with the two Koreas.” That means Bush could meet with Kim,the source added.

White House spokesman Tony Snow after the summit said if Pyongyangdismantles its nuclear program, "we are willing to do a whole series ofthings...including a declaration of the end of the Korean War,” but didnot reveal Bush’s offer. According to the source, Bush also said he iswilling to offer new economic incentives to the North, though it wasnot clear what. The offers mark a significant shift in Bush’s tack onNorth Korea, a country he included in the “axis of evil” and whoseleader he described as a “tyrant.”

Presidential security advisor Song Min-soon in a briefing afterthe summit said the two leaders discussed “measures that can be takensuch as economic aid, regime security guarantees and a peace frameworkif North Korea dismantles its nuclear program.” Cheong Wa Dae spokesmanYoon Tae-young on Wednesday declined to confirm Bush’s offer. "We can’tconfirm what was discussed during a summit, especially what thepresident of the other side said,” Yoon stated.

By these concessions, President Bush is acknowledging that his six-year policy of outsourcing the North Korea negotiations to China has amounted next to nothing.  Bush may also be trying to save his legacy.  There are three civil wars going on in the Middle East (Iraq, Lebanon and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts), his approval rating is in the low-30s and his domestic agenda is shot due to the recent Democratic House and Senate takeovers.  He needs at least something positive to be included in his presidential library.

Still, this can't change the fact that North Korea has advanced its nuclear and conventional weapons programs under President Bush's watch.