The Blue State

House and Senate: a tale of two chambers

Polls show the House and Senate races tilting in different directions.  The Democrats have a much better chance of taking back the House than the Senate.  Here is why.

As a close observer of multiple sources of polling data over the last three weeks, I can say with confidence that the Democrats appear to be on track to winning the House, and winning big!  The Rothenberg Political Report says that 51 House seats are now in play, while other experts put that number around 40.   Even if Democrats capture only half of those, that is still more than the 15 required to take back the House.

The Senate, on the other hand, is a completely different story.  This morning, the Washington Post painted a rosy scenario of the Democrats possibly being able to win seven GOP Senate seats, one more than the six required to win back majority.  Although the column was encouraging, it did not address how much money has been poured into three pivotal Senate races over the last week -- Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee.  It also did not address how Republican candidates like Bob Corker are diverting the debate away from the central issue of Iraq by making up false rumors about Harold Ford's love life through the sleazy tactic of push polling.

Again, it is Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee that we have to worry about.  Contrary to a Rasmussen Poll that showed the Montana race tightening, Democrat Jon Tester is expected to pull that one out.  In Ohio, Democat Sherrod Brown has a comfortable lead, as are the same with Democratic Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. 

So at the very least, the Democrats will pick up four Senate seats.  They need six.  So of the Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee races, they need to win two of those three. 

I just don't see the Democrats taking any of those three races with the way things are headed.  If anyone, maybe McCaskill in Missouri could pull it out.  But within the last week, regardless of all the push polling, my hope for a Harold Ford victory quickly subsided when a political strategist educated me about the "black tax".  The black tax is an estimated five points you must add on to the pre-election poll numbers of any white southern Republican candidate that faces a black Democratic opponent.  The five percent represents the whites that don't tell their friends or pollsters that they will vote against someone based on their race, but end up doing it anyway in the privacy of a polling booth.  It's sad, yet a sober reality of the racial barriers that we have yet to fully tackle.

In Virginia, Democrat James Webb is very credible among voters.  His downside is his lack of experience as a sound-bite-driven politician.  As of two months ago, I haven't taken George Allen as very smart man.  Though, smarts have nothing to do with getting elected.  You must be likable from a cultural standpoint, and talk a good game.  Allen does that well.  The Virginia incumbent's lead on Webb is small, but still there in every poll.

So, in summary, don't get too excited about the Senate if you are a Democrat.  You will be setting yourself up for a mega let down on election night.  I am not saying it can't happen, it is just unlikely.  Don't get me wrong: a lot can happen in two weeks.  So if we want to take Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee, we all need to get involved:

• Email letters to the editors of local newspapers.
• Comment on local blogs.
• If you are a local resident, email local news stations every single time their coverage is biased.
• Call talk radio stations.
• Most importantly, please DONATE to the Ford, McCaskill and Webb campaigns.  Even $5 or $10 would do.  Encourage your friends to do the same.

It's time for the big stretch run!  Please do your part to make a difference!

MT-Sen: Tester by eleven

The Montana Senate race is turning into the most entertaining race in the country.  What we have here is a state that usually votes red in presidential races, but is on the verge of ousting one of its long-time GOP senators.  Incumbent Conrad Burns (R-Sen) is in the fight for his life, and now trails centrist Democratic challenger Jon Tester by a wide margin in the latest poll released on Wednesday night:

Montana Senate Race
Conducted by Montana State University-Billings Political Science Department
Oct. 10-12, 14-15

(R) Conrad Burns - 35%
(D) Jon Tester - 46%

Even with this eleven-point advantage, the largest lead for Tester in any poll thus far, Craig Wilson, a political scientist at the school where the poll was conducted, says this race is still far from over:

Craig Wilson, the Montana StateUniversity-Billings political scientist who helps run the poll, saidBurns faces an uphill re-election battle - but not an insurmountableone.

Wilson said groups allied with Burns, such as theNational Rifle Association, are just now getting involved inadvertising. And he said such groups, like the Republican Party,historically have excellent get-out-the-vote campaigns.

“I would say it is definitely leaning Democratic,” Wilson said of the race. “It’s doable, but it wont be easy.”

While the NRA might help Burns out a bit, industry-friendly groups are getting involved on Burns' behalf as well.  The Free Enterprise Fund Committee, a "527 Group", is launching ad spots in every media market in Montana.  Their goal, according to the Helena Independent Herald, is to paint Jon Tester as a high tax advocate. 

The Helena newspaper also reported that left-leaning groups in support of Tester are firing back, launching ads against Burns.  Campaign Money Watch, for example, is currently running a tv spot that shows an oil executive smoking a cigar with the sound of money in the background as Senator Burns voted to give oil companies unconditional tax breaks.

I would also like to thank one of my usual visitors to this blog for tipping me off to a video clip of the latest Montana Senate debate.  In the clip, Burns told the crowd that Bush does have a plan for Iraq, but also doesn't want to tell anyone because the insurgents would find out.  In other words, taxpayers don't deserve to be told anything -- after all, it's only our children and our children's children that will be paying for this war.  No big deal, right?

 

Poll: Americans skeptical about government's official 9/11 story

Contrary to a growing number of Americans, I don't think that our government was behind 9/11.  Saying they were behind it would give them too much credit.  This is an Administration mismanaged Katrina and couldn't even get the power on in Baghdad!  Even if they tried, they wouldn't be able to poll it off.

However, that does not mean the entire official story about 9/11 was true.  In fact, a poll suggests that only 16% of Americans think the Bush Administration is telling the truth about 9/11:

"Do you think members of the Bush Administration are telling thetruth, are mostly telling the truth but hiding something, or are theymostly lying?

Telling the truth 16%

Hiding something 53%   

Mostly lying 28%

Not sure 3%"

Similar polls conducted by other companies found the same results.

10/10/06 U.S. House Race Roundup

With the election now exactly four weeks away, it's time to start analyzing this thing to its very core.  At least twice each week, I will take a closer look than usual at the latest polling data pertaining to the House races.  Then, in the final ten days before the election, this will become a daily event.

There is good news, good news and some bad news for the Democrats.  Let's start with the bad news first -- and that is the North Korea nuclear test.  This nuke event could not have been done at a better time for the Republicans, as it will give them a major opportunity over the next few weeks to divert attention away from Iraq and the Foley sex scandal.

Now to the good news.  Currently, the Republicans are in trouble no matter which way you look at it.  As reported in Tuesday's Washington Post, Republican officials are privately preparing for the Democrats to capture between seven and 30 House seats.  The Cook Political Report projects that 25 Republican-held seats are now up for grabs -- seven more than on September 25th, before the Foley scandal broke.  The most alarming statistic of all comes from USA Today, which marks a 23-point swing bounce for the Democrats in just three weeks when registered voters nationwide were asked what party they will vote for on November 7th.  In that same USA Today poll, President Bush's approval rating fell by seven points in just three weeks to 37%.  On Iraq, 59% say it "was a mistake" for Bush to go to war -- the most since the war began.

Back to the battle over the House.  The Cook Political Report concludes that no Democratic House seat is expected to turn Republican.  Also, a total of 40 Republican House seats are either labeled "Toss Up" or slightly "Lean Republican".  This is a sharp difference from months prior.  Pollster Charlie Cook is almost always right in his data, and until now has been skeptical about the Democrats' chances for taking back the House.

According to Cook, these 25 GOP seats are now listed as toss-ups:

• CO-07, CT-02, CT-04, FL-13, FL-22, IL-06, IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, IA-01, KT-04, MN-06, NM-01, NY-24, NY-26, NC-11, OH-01, OH-15, OH-18, PA-06, PA-07, PA-10, VA-02, WA-08, WI-08

Again these are the toss-ups.  15 more, which I did not list, barely "Lean Republican", and also stand a chance of going Democrat.  From what I gather, at the very least the Democrats will pick up around 10 seats, and at the very most the Democrats could capture 40 (but don't bet on even 30).  Ultimately, considering that Republicans usually finish strong, I would say that Democrats will pick up somewhere between 14 and 20 House seats -- based on the internal polling that I saw in each race.

Okay, enough numbers for one day.  You might have to read this over a few times for it all to make sense.  The point is that things are looking very good right now.  But anything can happen over the next few weeks.

Let's not spoil it

A batch of new polls are out from USA Today, and they put Democrats in a great position as we get closer to the November 7th vote.  But before I get to them, it's important for the Democrats to make sure that they not let Bush use the crisis on the Korean Peninsula as a way to scare people into voting Republican (which we know from experience he will probably do).  We need to point out that the Administration has had six long years to try a number of approaches that would solve the nuclear standoff.  Instead, attention was diverted to Iraq, and Bush chose to ignore Colin Powell's advice of talking directly with the Pyongyang-based government.  There is no way that the President's North Korea policy has made us safer.

Now to the USA Today Poll:

Four weeks before congressional elections, anew USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Democrats hold a 23-point lead over GOPcandidates. That's double the lead Republicans had a month before theyseized control of Congress in 1994.

President Bush's approval rating was 37%, downfrom 44% in a Sept. 15-17 poll. The approval rating for Congress was24%, down 5 points from last month.

A 24% approval rating is hard to stomach, especially if you are Dennis Hastert.  If you are Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY), who also helped cover up the Foley messages, it gets even worse.  Even as the Chairman of the National Republican House campaign, Reynolds trails his Democratic opponent:

The increasing onslaught against Reynolds appears strongly connected toDavis’s improved position. A Zogby International poll reported Sundayindicated that Davis leads Reynolds 48 percent to 33 percent, with 57percent of respondents disapproving of how Reynolds handled the pagescandal and 58 percent saying it is time to elect someone new.

GOP once again fighting popular opinion

SurveyUSA conducted a poll that finds a clear majority of the country wants House Speaker Dennis Hastert to resign for his role in covering up the Marl Foley predator scandal:

SurveyUSA Poll (10/06-08/06: 1000 Adults Nationwide)

Based on what you know right now, do you think Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert should remain in his position as the Speaker of the House?  Do you think he should resign as Speaker of the House but remain a member of Congress?  Or do you think he should completely resign from Congress?

Remain Speaker - 26%
Resign Leadership - 20%
Resign From Congress - 45%
Not Sure - 9%

It's not the scandal, it's the cover-up that comes back to bite politicians.  Most Americans don't want Hastert to get away with it.

Battleground Polls: Dems close to capturing Senate majority

If they can keep up the momentum, the Democrats have a 50/50 shot of taking back majority in the Senate, says USA Today.  Today, the newspaper polling company released a whole slate of polls from battleground states, which show the Democrats on the verge of possibly taking the Senate:

Missouri
(R) Jim Talent - 45%
(D) Claire McCaskill - 48%

New Jersey
(D) Bob Menendez - 46%
(R) Thomas Kean Jr. - 43%

Rhode Island
(R) Lincoln Chafee - 39%
(D) Sheldon Whitehouse - 50%

Tennessee
(D) Harold Ford - 50%
(R) Bob Corker - 45%

Virginia
(R) George Allen - 48%
(D) James Webb - 45%

A few things here.  If George Allen of Virginia wins, then the Democrats must win the rest of these races if they are to take back majority.  Remember, the Dems need 51 seats, not 50 seats.  If they get 50, then Vice President (President of the Senate) Dick Cheney can cast the tie-breaking vote.  So 51 is the magic number.  All that you need to know is the Democrats can afford to lose one out of these five races and still take majority.

If you are wondering about the Senate race in Arizona, a poll puts Republican incumbent Jon Kyl out in front by six -- slightly outside the margin of error.  Because the Democrats want to consolidate monetary efforts to try and win in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, the Democratic Senate Committee, led by Chuck Schumer, has announced that they will reduce Democratic challenger Jim Pederson's war chest of money by $1 million.  It's a signal that the Dems are already conceding the Arizona Senate race to Jon Kyl.  In other words, they feel that Virginia is more winnable than Arizona.  Even more significantly, it underscores the lack of an anti-incumbent sentiment in the Southwest, as Jon Kyl has done a fine job of distancing himself from the Washington scandals.  However, the Republican's lead is only six points.  A lot can happen in a month's time.  And Jim Pederson is a quality candidate.

GOP experience 21-point drop among Evangelical voters (before Predatorgate)

Okay, let's pretend this Foley thing never happened.  Just take the poor federal response to hurricane Katrina, the Jack Abramoff scandal, the deception over Iraq and all the other political events over the last two years.  Support for the GOP among Evangelicals has fallen 21-points.  Again, this Pew Research Poll was taken at the end of September:

A nationwide poll of 1,500 registered voters released yesterday bythe nonpartisan Pew Research Center found that 57 percent of whiteevangelicals are inclined to vote for Republican congressionalcandidates in the midterm elections, a 21-point drop in support amongthis critical part of the GOP base.

Even before the Foleyscandal, the portion of white evangelicals with a "favorable"impression of the Republican Party had fallen sharply this year, from63 percent to 54 percent, according to Pew polls.

In the latestsurvey, taken in the last 10 days of September and the first four daysof October, the percentage of evangelicals who think that Republicansgovern "in a more honest and ethical way" than Democrats has plunged to42 percent, from 55 percent at the start of the year.

For the fourth time (if you count the title), this is all before the Foley scandal erupted.  One can only imagine what the polls that get released in a few days will look like.  The Republicans have one month to catch Osama bin Laden or bomb Iran, or else this race may be over.

There is no way the latest Zogby Senate poll is accurate

Zogby conducted a bunch of election polls for key Senate races.  As you will read, some of them are so far off from the polls we have been looking at over the last several weeks.  Quite frankly, they might be inaccurate.  Bob Menendez apparently has a huge lead in New Jersey, while George Allen is cruising in Virginia by 11-points.

Well, I'll let you be the judge of this Zogby Senate Poll:

CONNECTICUT - Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, hasa 53 percent to 33 percent lead on Democratic anti-war challenger NedLamont. Lieberman, a three-term Democratic incumbent, lost the partyprimary in August after Lamont attacked his support for the Iraq war.

MISSOURI - Republican Sen. Jim Talent leadsDemocratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill by 43 percent to 39 percentin a contest that has been close all year.

MONTANA - Democrat JonTester leads Republican Sen. Conrad Burns 46 percent to 42 percentafter Burns suffered a series of problems, from returning donationsfrom associates of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff to comments seen asinsensitive to some ethnic groups and to out-of-state firefighters.

NEW JERSEY - Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez, considered vulnerableafter polls showed a tightening race, leads Republican challenger TomKean Jr. by 45 percent to 35 percent.

OHIO - Republican Sen. MikeDeWine has pulled into a dead heat with Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brownat 41 percent each. DeWine had been trailing in other recent polls.

TENNESSEE - In a race for the open seat of retiring SenateRepublican Leader Bill Frist, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford Jr. andRepublican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, are deadlockedat 40 percent each.

VIRGINIA - Republican Sen. George Allen hassurvived a series of recent campaign missteps to take a 48 percent to37 percent lead over Democratic challenger James Webb.

Pollster John Zogby tries to justify these numbers on his web site.  Like I said before, I don't think these numbers are accurate.  If you compare the numbers of six major polling companies, and one of those six is so far out of step with the other five, it likely deems that one polling company inaccurate.  For example, Democrat Bob Menendez is in serious trouble in New Jersey.  Every other poll besides this one has Kean out in front by five or six points.  This one gives Menendez a 10-point advantage.  What the heck?  That one is definitely off.

Or, over in Connecticut, where the poll states that Ned Lamont only has 33% of the vote.  I have never seen it that low before.  Almost every other poll puts Lamont in the low-to-mid 40s, about seven or eight points behind Lieberman.  This poll suggests a 20-point spread.

The funniest of them all was Virginia.  How could George Allen have a 10-point lead on James Webb -- when every other poll over the last week has put the race neck-and-neck?

Even the Ohio race doesn't make sense.  There is such an anti-incumbent sentiment there.  How could Brown and DeWine be tied -- especially after DeWine was schooled in their debate on Meet the Press?

Keep in mind that the Zogby Poll was conducted between September 25th and October 2nd.  A lot has changed in the political landscape since then (Foley).  So, putting it bluntly, I deem this poll irrelevant.

Bush's poll bounce contradicts Senate polls of close races

While Bush's polls numbers are going up, many Republican Senate candidates are watching their numbers trending downward.  How could this be?  I'll give my take on why that is.

Most pollsters are miffed right now at their inability to explain what is happening in the polls.  When you take the mean of each national poll conducted since the President's September 11th anniversary speech, you get a Bush approval rating slightly above 40% -- much better than in the months after hurricane Katrina.  But in some states where there are close Senate races, polls are trending the opposite way, in the Democrats' favor.

Take Democratic candidate Harold Ford, for example, who is battling Republican Bob Corker for the open Tennessee Senate seat soon to be vacated by Bill Frist.  Just a week ago, the two were tied, and in one poll Corker even led.  But as of late, it's been trending Democrat.  The latest Benenson Strategies Group poll shows Harold Ford leading Bob Corker by a full six points, outside the margin of error.

This anomaly is true with other races.  In Missouri, a state that gives their Republican Senator Jim Talent an approval rating of 51%, Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill leads Talent by three points.

So what is going on, you ask?  I have my own theory, and it revolves around two points.  First, some who do support President Bush might not be as excited about voting this year as in years past.  For the Senate races, all of the polls are conducted by surveying "likely voters."  The President's national approval rating numbers usually come from "all adults," no matter whether they are voting or not.

The second component comes from far-right conservatives who would vote Republican anyway.  During the immigration debate, many of these voters opposed Bush's policies, but still considered themselves Republicans.  Now Bush is getting those voters back, however that does not ensure they will turn out in droves on election day.  Still though, Bush's approval rating is in the low-40s, about ten points lower than it was in September of 2004.  So what has changed?  Two words: security moms.  Now I know that pollsters will laugh at that slogan and claim they don't exist.  But as the following video shows, CNN conducted a focus group of a dozen or so security moms in suburban Missouri who voted for Bush in 2004.  They all are are having second thoughts about Iraq and are leaning toward voting Democrat this year.

I might be wrong about why this polling anomaly is occurring.  But there has to be some explanation as to why Bush's numbers are going up, and the Republicans' numbers are going down.  I think it's because the "likely voters" are mostly Democrat, and demographics like suburban moms that are considered swing voters are trending Democrat.