The Blue State

Poor fundraising, good polls

There's bad news and good news.  As I would say when I was little, let's do the bad news first.  The bad news is that the Republicans are smoking the Democrats out of the water in fundraising.  In the final five weeks before the election, the RNC alone has $39 million on-hand to spend, compared to $11 million for the DNC.  Add this to the fundraising advantages that the NRCC and NRSC have over the DNCC and DSCC, and we've got a serious problem.  If there is a time to give $10 or $20 to the Democrats, it's now.

Okay, time for the good news.  Remember all the polls this week that have shown President Bush's approval ratings in the mid-to-upper 40s?  Well, a CBS News/NY Times poll was just released that shows Bush's approval rating at 37%.  It gets better from there, as the numbers show.  Here are a few:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

Approve - 25%
Disapprove - 61%
No Opinion - 14%

Has the representative in Congress in from your home district performed his or her job well enough to deserve re-election or is it time to give a new person a chance?

Deserves re-election - 39%
Time for new person - 48%
Depends - 2%
No Opinion - 12%

Usually for a Congressional election, the "No Opinion" answers are much higher.  It illustrates the polarized nation we live in today.

I have a theory of my own, especially considering the fact that Congress' approval numbers are actually lower than President's numbers.  I recently spoke with a conservative Republican that listens to Rush Limbaugh and supports the President, but wants the Democrats to take back Congress in order to force more bipartisanship.  Certainly this is just one person.  But I wonder if the same is true for anyone else.  Wouldn't that have to be the case if more people support the President than the Congress?
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Other sites blogging about this issue: The Left Coaster, Democratic Underground, Media Matters, Reality-Based Educator, A Yankee in the Emerald City, MyDD, Political Animal, Talking Points Memo.

Poll: major shift on Iraq

I don't like to just sit here and analyze polls, but the CBS poll below represents a major shift in public opinion on whether the war in Iraq is separate from the overall war against terrorism.  The major shift occurred within the span of less than ten days.

Here is the question:

"Do you think of the war in Iraq as part of the war on terrorism, or do you think of it as separate from the war on terrorism?"

The results:

August 17 - 21: Part of - 44%, Separate - 51%
August 11 - 13: Part of - 50%, Separate - 46%

This all means that no matter how much President Bush tries to connect Iraq with what happened on September 11th, at least 44% of the country would respond by telling him to bite it.  It suggests that the White House might want to attempt a different approach when it comes to convincing the public that troops ought to remain there in the long-term.  But as almost every Republican strategist would admit, there aren't many rhetorical approaches left to help Bush put a positive spin on an Iraq policy that is actually hurting our national security.

Bush gets low marks among 18 to 24 crowd

According to a poll just released by Bloomberg, while President Bush's approval rating among all adults stands at 40%, among ages 18 to 24 his approval rating is only 20%:

A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll of Americans age 18 to 24found Bush's approval rating was 20 percent, with 53 percentdisapproving and 28 percent with no opinion. That compares to a40 percent approval rating among Americans of all ages in aseparate Bloomberg/Times poll.

Much like Franklin Roosevelt attracted a new generation ofvoters with the New Deal, Bush and his administration have hadhigh hopes of drawing younger voters to his party. He has soughtto do that through policy initiatives aimed at creating an``ownership society,'' and public relations tactics like a YouthConvention at the party's 2004 national convention, in which histwin daughters took the stage.

Among the initiatives aimed at drawing a new generation intothe Republican fold are health-care savings accounts, eliminationof the so-called marriage penalty in the U.S. tax code, andBush's proposal to create private investment accounts from aportion of Social Security payroll taxes. `Younger Americansreally want to see some leadership,'' Bush said last year as helaunched his Social Security plan.

Instead, the Social Security initiative flopped in Congressafter attracting criticism from the public and lawmakers of bothparties, and health-care savings accounts haven't done much toexpand coverage, with only about 1 percent of the U.S. populationcurrently participating in them.         

Cyclical opinion on Iraq

The latest Gallup Poll shows how the public feels the same way about Iraq today as they did about Vietnam in 1970.

The most recent Gallup poll this month found that52% of adult Americans want to see all U.S. troops out of Iraq within ayear, with 19% advocating immediate withdrawal. In the summer of 1970,Gallup found that 48% wanted a pullout within a year, with 23%embracing the “immediate” option. Just 7% want to send more troops now,vs. 10% then.

At present, 56% call the decision to invade Iraq a“mistake,” with 41% disagreeing. Again this echoes the view of theVietnam war in 1970, when that exact same number, 56%, in May 1970called it a mistake in a Gallup poll.

This adds credibility to the belief that history is a cyclical process.  And in this particular instance, the cycle is one generation removed.

Poll: Democrats hold "favorable" advantage

Obviously we're only in July, so things can change.  But according to the latest CBS News Poll released today, Americans have a much more favorable opinion of the Democrats than the Republicans (Polling Report):

Democratic Party: Favorable - 52%, Unfavorable - 41%, Unsure - 7%

Republican Party: Favorable - 43%, Unfavorable - 51%, Unsure - 6%

When it comes to Bush's approval rating, as you can see, not one poll in the month of July puts him at 40% or better:

Why does all this matter, you ask?  Earlier this month, most pundits were convinced that the Republicans' down times were behind them.  But with Iraq, gas prices and poverty continuing to concern voters, the GOP are way in order their head.  The only thing they can possibly do is either hope for the Democrats to make a mistake, or divert attention away from those big issues.

Stem cell poll mirrors Bush approval rating

The verdict is in on Bush's stem cell veto.  Here it is from the latest Gallup Poll:

"As you may know, earlier this week, President Bush vetoed a bill that would have expanded federal funding for embryonic stem cell research. Do you approve or disapprove of his decision to veto this bill?"

Approve - 36%
Disapprove - 58%
Unsure - 6%

As you can see, most Americans prefer science over one man using Executive power to institute his moral authority over a nuanced majority.

This poll mirrors President Bush's job performance numbers.  In that same Gallup Poll, Bush's job approval rating stands at 37%.

Poll: 61% of Americans support embryonic stem cell research

Don't let anyone tell you that a majority of Americans oppose embryonic stem cell research.  Ever since 2002, as time has gone on and the scientific possibilities have expanded, more and more Americans are embracing the idea that we need to protect the living.  Look at this poll:
 

Poll: GOP not looking any better than last month

Even though John Boehner still contends that the Republican Party is in a better situation than last month, the new AP Poll below is not really something for the GOP to jump for joy about:

However, many political analysts are still unsure as to the effect that the current Middle East crisis will have on the upcoming election.

Poll: Only 9% have higher view of Bush than before

This one stat amongst all the other questions in the latest Los Angeles Times Poll is very striking (Polling Report):

"Thinking now about your opinion of George W. Bush's credibility during his tenure in office, do you have a higher, or lower opinion of his credibility than you used to, or has your opinion not changed one way or the other?"

Higher - 9%
Lower - 51%
No Change - 39%
Unsure - 1%

Am I the only one that finds this really striking?  If I were taking the poll, I would have answered "no change."  Lastly, when only 9% think higher of you than they did before, there is absolutely no way you can go down as even a "good" president.

Right track/wrong track numbers a huge problem for GOP

The mainstream media is making it sound like the Republicans experienced a revival in the month of June.  If I were them, I would not consider these poll numbers from Time Magazine a revival:

In the TIME survey, 66% said the country is on the wrong track, vs. 28%who said it's going in the right direction. Those numbers have worsenedsince March, when the poll recorded a 60% to 34% split. When askedwhether the new Iraqi government will be able to build a stable andreasonably democratic society, 48% of those surveyed said no, while 39%remain optimistic.

Time Magazine puts Bush at 35% approval.  As for the right track/wrong track number, it is the worst that it has been under this President.  So if you think this is a revival for Bush and his allies, think again.
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Other blogs writing about this issue: Velvet Factor, Progress Now Action.