The Blue State

NH-2008: Why Hillary will root for Ron Paul

Iowa is a very important state because it will determine whether Hillary Clinton runs away with the nomination.  If Obama or Edwards win, the race will move to New Hampshire, where independent voters make up 45% of the electorate.  These independents will need to make a decision: Democratic ballot or Republican ballot?  They can only pick one.

Political wisdom suggests that if Obama or Edwards win Iowa (especially in Obama's case), a flood of New Hampshire independents will vote in the Democratic contest because they will want to see Hillary go down.  If McCain loses big in Iowa, even more registered New Hampshire independents will want to vote in the Democratic race, fearing that McCain is done and there is no point in filling out a Republican ballot.

This is all good news for Obama and Edwards.  But there is one variable they are leaving out: the Ron Paul factor.

Earlier this week, Ron Paul raked in $4.3 million in just 24 hours.  If this keeps up, he will be able to increase his campaign resources in early states, including Iowa.  If Paul finishes as high as third in Iowa, he will become the media darling overnight, and be labeled as the independent maverick Republican (sound familiar?).  Obama or Edwards, should they win Iowa, could count on significantly less independents crossing over to help beat Hillary in New Hampshire.  Plus, Ron Paul is basing his campaign in New Hampshire more than anywhere else.  He will attract a lot of independents -- keeping them from voting for Hillary's number one competitor.

Whether Obama or Edwards put up a fight in New Hampshire will depend on the attractiveness of Ron Paul to independent voters.

Obama and Paul the two favorites among soldiers

Earlier this summer when Rudolph Giuliani accused Barack Obama of being "anti-troops," maybe he should have just asked the troops themselves.  According to the USA Today, Barack Obama and Ron Paul, two anti-war candidates, are getting more campaign donations from US soldiers than any of the other candidates:

Obama, an Illinois senator, brought in moredonations from this group than any White House contender from eitherparty. The Democrat announced Wednesday his plan to withdraw all U.S.troops from Iraq by the end of 2008.

Paul, a Texas congressman and the only GOP presidential hopeful who supports an immediate troop withdrawal, comes in second.

"Paul and Obama are talking straight tosoldiers, and what they are saying is resonating," said Larnell Exum, aretired Army lieutenant colonel, who gave $500 to Obama. Exum, whoworks for the Army as a congressional liaison, is a Democrat but votedfor George Bush in 1992.

Are our soldiers trying to tell us something by their support of two anti-war candidates?  There is a rhetorical question for you.

Yes, what is being donated is a small amount, since many soldiers and their families are just scraping by financially.  But the point is that this is what is being given, and there might be a real reason for it.