The Blue State

Obama thumps Clinton and Edwards in SC

From all the exit polls, this one wasn't even close.  According to CNN exit polls, Barack Obama won 80% of the black vote, and barely lost the white vote.  Every single network has called the race.

Huge news for the Obama campaign.  He overcame the childish antics of the Clinton campaign.  It sent the message that if you are trying to become the chief executive of the most powerful country in the world, you had better be able to pick your own fights, and not send your spouse out to do the fighting for you -- otherwise, you aren't qualified to lead.

Like it or not...

In South Carolina, race will be an issue.  This clip from last night is only a prequel:

Obama now Leading in Recent SC Polls

With the New Hampshire Primary only hours away, new polling data from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA show Obama now leading Clinton in the South Carolina Primary.

These polls are the only two taken since Obama's victory in Iowa last week. Here's a look at the shift.

Rasmussen 12/16  Clinton-33  Edwards-17  Obama-33

Rasmussen 1/6     Clinton-30  Edwards-14  Obama-42

SurveyUSA 12/17-18 Clinton-41 Edwards-17 Obama-39

SurveyUSA 1/4-6      Clinton-30 Edwards-16 Obama-50

As you can see, the polls show a massive jump for Obama, with the extra support coming from Hillary's camp (SurveyUSA) or from Second Tier Candidates asking their supporters to back Obama (Rasmussen.)

The O-mentum continues to build!

SC-08: The big weekend down south

For just this weekend, South Carolina will be the center of the political universe.  Oprah Winfrey will stump for Barack Obama in an 80,000-seat stadium, meaning that the freshman Senator will be able to reach a wide group of adults, many of whom never voted before:

Mere days after Winfrey’s impending four-city tour was announced, theObama campaign switched venues for her South Carolina appearance — toan 80,000-capacity stadium. Her appearances, said a campaignrepresentative, “will allow our campaign to reach a group of voters whomay not be closely tuned into the political process.”

For Obama, having the opportunity to show off his oratory skills in front of thousands of new listeners is definitely a plus.

In response, on the same day Winfrey and Obama arrive in South Carolina, Hillary is sending her husband Bill to stump for her there:

SC-2008: Jesse Jackson Jr launches radio ad for Obama

With Hillary Clinton far out in front in South Carolina, Barack Obama is trying a more aggressive approach.  Jesse Jackson Jr released a radio ad asking South Carolinians to vote for change in 2008, and to elect a candidate with a proven history of fighting for equal opportunity and against racial profiling:

• Listen to the Ad here

Partial Transcript

“Once, South Carolina voted for my father, and sent a strong message tothe nation,” the younger Jackson said. “Next year, you can send morethan a message. You can launch a President.”

This is a good start.  Obama has a long way to go, though.

SC-2008: Colbert ahead of Richardson, Kucinich and Gravel

If even after seven months of steadfast campaigning you trail a comedian in the race for the White House, maybe you should think about withdrawing your name.  Comedy Central personality Stephen Colbert will appear on both party's ballots for the South Carolina primary.  Why South Carolina?  Well, it's Colbert home state.

Opinion Strategies conducted this poll of likely South Carolina Democratic primary voters.  They conducted a Republican one as well, but Colbert finished with less than one percent.  In the Democratic race for president, Colbert finished fifth, just a hair away from fourth:

Likely South Carolina Democratic primary voters

Hillary Clinton - 40%
Barack Obama - 19%
John Edwards - 12%
Joe Biden - 2.7%
Stephen Colbert - 2.5%
Bill Richardson - 2.1%
Dennis Kucinich - 2.1%
Mike Gravel - < 1%

If the election were held today, Stephen Colbert would actually win a few delegates, which would represent him during the Democratic Convention next August.  The comedian would be granted speaking time as well.

How it will come down to South Carolina

Barack Obama has 31 field offices open in Iowa, far more than any other Democratic candidate.  As Chris Cillizza of the Fix notes, if (and only if) Obama wins Iowa, independent voters in New Hampshire, who make up 45% of the state's electorate, would be more likely to vote in the Democratic primary.  However, Clinton far ahead in New Hampshire.  So if Obama can win Iowa, finish in a close second in New Hampshire, that would set up a make or break match in South Carolina:

If Obama manages to win Iowa, it's possible a slew of indepedents wouldflock to his cause in New Hampshire where they are allowed to vote ineither primary. That sort of surge among independent voter could erasethe Clinton edge in the state or at least drastically narrow it.Imagine a scenario in which Obama wins Iowa, Clinton narrowly wins NewHampshire and the two square off in South Carolina -- a state whereblack voters made up nearly 50 percent of voters in the 2004 Democraticpresidential primary.

Back to New Hampshire for a bit.  John McCain is hoping that Clinton wins Iowa because more New Hampshire independents would be likely to vote in the Republican primary.  John McCain needs independents in order to stay alive.  However, if Obama wins Iowa, that extra media buzz about the Clinton family getting knocked off would motivate New Hampshire independents to vote in the Democratic primary instead.

South Carolina may cause Iowa to move up

The Iowa Caucuses might take place in 2007.  Today that strange prospect became more of a reality as the South Carolina GOP acknowledged their intention to move the primary up from February 2nd to mid-January -- possibly January 22nd. 

New Hampshire also holds its primary on the 22nd, and would have to move theirs up if South Carolina followed through on what they are threatening to do.  Nevada will have its caucuses on January 19th.  But according to the AP, there is no indication that Nevada will change the timing.

The main worry is that Iowa would have to move up.  At the moment, Iowans are scheduled to vote on January 14th, but that could change to late-December if South Carolina took action.  The South Carolina GOP will make its decision tomorrow.

Lastly, it is not clear whether schedule changes in Iowa, should they happen, would just affect the GOP, or whether both parties would vote earlier.

New IA, NH and SC '08 polling

These polls came in just hours ago.  Edwards maintains a lead in Iowa, while New Hampshire and South Carolina, as of now, are still in the Clinton column (conducted 4/27 through 4/30 among likely Democratic primary voters):

IOWA
John Edwards - 27%
Hillary Clinton - 23%
Barack Obama - 19%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Hillary Clinton - 37%
John Edwards - 26%
Barack Obama - 14%

SOUTH CAROLINA
Hillary Clinton - 36%
Barack Obama - 24%
John Edwards - 18%

Take your pick: Clinton, Edwards or Obama?  Unless Gore enters the race, it will be those three candidates from here on out.  Neither Bill Richardson nor Chris Dodd helped themselves out in last week's debate, and their campaigns appear to have hit a rock.  As for Biden, although he did exceed expectations in the debate, his lack of fundraising will make it nearly impossible for him to compete by the time September and October roll around.

Obama grabs lead in South Carolina

Great news for the Obama Campaign.  One of the first four primary destinations is tilting heavily towards the Illinois Senator.  Here are the numbers (Insider Advantage Poll: April 6 - 8, given to 500 registered Democratic voters):

SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATS
Barack Obama - 34%
Hillary Clinton - 20%
John Edwards - 17%

Almost immediately, the Clinton Campaign responded:

Mo Elleitlee, a spokesman for the Clinton campaign, dismissed the latest South Carolina poll numbers.

“It’s way too early in the campaign to be talking about polls,” he said. “Polls don’t mean that much right now.”

He then added, “We’re looking forward to the debates.”

Maybe so.  But the momentum is definitely in Obama's favor.  Back in January, Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama in South Carolina by 16 points in a survey given by a different polling company. 

To make things even more interesting, South Carolina will host the first presidential debate, which will take place on April 26th -- just a few weeks from now.  It will be broadcast live on MSNBC.