The Blue State

This is anything but a simple war

I have been harping on this point since 2005, and so have other bloggers.  Even if the violence all over Iraq suddenly subsides, we will always deal with a border dispute in the north.  Kurds in Iraq, Turkey and Iran all want independence.  Turkey and Iran have been working together over the years to turn the Kurdish population against one another.  But with the fall of Saddam Hussein, and are implementing an even more aggressive policy against this stateless nation.

Thousands of Turkish troops have amassed on the border region.  Within the last few days Iranian forces began shelling Kurdish towns:

Iranian artillery shelled villages in the Qandil mountains that arehome to various Kurdish militant groups, one of which — the Party for aFree Life in Kurdistan (PEJAK) — is waging a guerilla insurgencyagainst the Iranian government. Though hundreds of villagers fled theirhomes and two women were wounded, such cross-border violence isbecoming a regular feature of life in the north. But yesterday's attackcould also be a prelude to a larger struggle.

Iraqi Kurdish media are reporting that the Iranian military is massingat the main border crossing into northern Iraq, possibly for anincursion against PEJAK. Clashes between PEJAK and the Iranians havebeen increasing steadily, and Iraqi Kurdish officials say that about 40Iranian soldiers were killed on Saturday.

The situation in Iraq is extremely complex.  When the Bush Administration determines that the surge is working just by citing events taking place in Anbar Province, it does a disservice to the nuanced situation that we face.  There are so many factors to this war.  Anbar is only one.  Another is the ongoing violence along the Sunn-Shia mixed neighborhoods in and around Baghdad.  Another factor is the chaos in the suburbs of Diyala, which is just a mess.  Another is the battle between Shiite gangs in Basra over the oil wealth.  Another is Moqdada al-Sadr, who is an even bigger player today in Iraqi politics than he was six months ago.  And then we have the security concerns in the north, as I mentioned.

So this is not by any means a cut and dry war.  It is a multi-layered, super-dimensional war within a war.  Different parts of Iraq have their own issues.  Dick Cheney said it himself in 1994:

That's a veryvolatile part of the world, and if you take down the central governmentof Iraq, you could very easily end up seeing pieces of Iraq fly off:part of it, the Syrians would like to have to the west, part of it --eastern Iraq -- the Iranians would like to claim, they fought over itfor eight years. In the north you've got the Kurds, and if the Kurdsspin loose and join with the Kurds in Turkey, then you threaten theterritorial integrity of Turkey.

Good points all around, Cheney.

Attack in SE Turkey increases likelihood of wider Iraq incursion

On Thursday evening, Kurdish rebels detonated a bomb in Southeastern Turkey that killed three Turkish soldiers:

The rebel bomb targeted a military vehicle near the city of Siirt, 75kilometers (46 miles) north of the border with Iraq, the governor'soffice said. Six security personnel, including pro-government villageguards, were injured.

On Friday, Turkey vowed to respond, increasing the likelihood that they could expand their incursion into Northern Iraq, which as of Wednesday included approximately 50,000 soldiers.  At the moment, Turkey has moved a total of 250,000 troops to the border:

Our Eli Lake, who has been way aheadof the other papers, reported yesterday that as many as a quarter of amillion Turkish troops — twice as many as the number of GIs we have inIraq — are massing on the border. Mr. Lake quoted the top Turkishgeneral, Yasar Buyukanit, as saying that his soldiers were awaitinginstructions to attack in northern Iraq the havens whence the KurdistanWorker's Party, or PKK, are infiltrating into America's ally.

As a result of this new front in the war, oil prices have surged to a nine-month high at $71 a barrel.

Turkey increases military equipment along Iraq border

There are new signs that a Turkish strike in Northern Iraq is more likely:

Turkey has sent large contingents of soldiers,tanks and armored personnel carriers to reinforce its border with Iraqamid a heated debate over whether to stage a cross-border offensive tohit terrorist group PKK's bases.

The images of military trucks rumbling along the remote border withIraq's Kurdish zone and tanks being transferred on trains and trucks toreinforce an already formidable force there have dominated televisionscreens and the front pages of several newspapers in the last few weeks.

This underscores the Turkish military's hypersensitivity in recent days.  Earlier this week, Turkey accused the two U.S. F-16 fighter jets of violating its airspace, and demanded that it never happen again.

Although Turkey is preparing, their military is fearful "of a prolonged guerrilla war in the mountains of Kurdistan," which could only complicate the security situation in Iraq even further.

Turkey getting ready for war with Northern Iraq

After the terror attack in Ankara this week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced a change in his policy of tolerance with the Kurds in Northern Iraq.  For some time, the Turkish military had been angry with the Prime Minister for not wanting to battle the Iraqi Kurds across the border.  Now it seems the terror attack has increased the chances of a Turkish invasion of Northern Iraq:

“At this point, it is impossible for us to be in conflict with oursecurity forces, with our military,” Mr. Erdogan said, according to thestate-run Anatolian News Agency. “Whatever is necessary to be done,inside or cross borders, our communications are already established forwhen the time comes.”

This is obviously not the kind of news General Patraeus wanted to hear, as the U.S. might soon be dealing with another front in Iraq.  Interestingly enough, the United States is bound by its NATO treaty obligations to help Turkey, even though the Turkish military would be fighting against some of the very same entities that helped Bush depose Saddam Hussein.

This news comes as nine more U.S. soldiers were killed in Iraq over the last 24 hours.

Turkey Wants to Invade The Kurds in N. Iraq

A new spin in an already spinning Middle East. Turkey wants to cross the NorthernIraqi border to invade Kurdish guerrillas, and the U.S. is asking Turkey not to,but agrees the guerrillas are terrorists and need to be dealt with. The supportof the Iraqi Kurdish leaders is essential to stabilize Iraq.

WASHINGTON - The United States urged Turkeyon Thursday to refrain from launching cross-border raids against Kurdishguerrilla bases in neighboring Iraq, although it agreed the rebels "need tobe dealt with."

The assistant secretary of state for Europe, Dan Fried, made the appeal in atelephone call to Turkish Ambassador Nabi Sensoy after Turkey's army chiefargued publicly in favor of a military incursion into northern Iraq to crackdown on Kurd rebels there, US officials said.

"The focus should be on trying to resolve this in a cooperative way, ina joint way, rather than to resort to unilateral actions," McCormack said.

But the US spokesman went on to say it was imperative to counter the PKK,which has waged a bloody campaign for Kurdish self-rule in Turkey's southeastsince 1984, an insurgency that has already claimed about 37,000 lives.

"Clearly the terrorist activities of the PKK are completelyunacceptable," he said. "They are a terrorist group and they need tobe dealt with."

Read the complete story: USurges caution after Turkish army threatens operation into Iraq

This situation will most likely create a whole new batch of issues.

Turkish intelligence predicts collapse of Iraq by 2010

A report that was conducted by Turkey's National Intelligence Agency and put on their web site predicts a rapid disintegration of the Iraq as a political, societal and economic body by the year 2010:

The Turkish intelligence agency has released a threat analysis report that projects the demise ofIraq by 2010 and several other Middle East states by 2015.

"In this period that we are currently in, we will see the process bywhich many nations will lose the marathon of history," National IntelligenceOrganization Undersecretary Emre Taner said.

"All values, structures, relations, systems and social order, be itsocioeconomic or political, religious or moral, are being reshaped andredefined," Taner said. "This process is representative of the period inwhich new key players, secondary players and the rules of the internationalsystem are being redefined and even reborn."

This report was released just as Turkish opposition leader Deniz Baykal agreed that the government should debate whether to invade the Kurdish region in Northern Iraq, which Turkey has long considered a threat.  If Turkey ends up choosing to move its military into Iraqi territory, that would add a whole new dimension to President Bush's foreign policy predicament.  It might also hurt Turkey's chances of joining the European Union.

Turkey has a significant Kurdish population of their own, and is worried that an independent Iraqi Kurdistan would incite a rebellion in their country.  If the United States is not able to control the security situation in Northern Iraq, then Turkey may do it themselves.

Last Sunday on Meet the Press, Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) suggested taking U.S. forces out of the cities and putting them along the border.  With Turkey's new interest in starting their own war in Northern Iraq, President Bush may decide to either take Hagel's advice or come up with another alternative to prevent this from happening.

Thursday Editorial: The concern in Northern Iraq that is being ignored

While appearing as a guest on the "Mike Webb Show" about one year ago, I debated a panel of young liberal Democrats on U.S. policy in Iraq.  Among the three other well-educated individuals in the room, I was the only one that did not advocate an immediate pullout of U.S. forces in Iraq.  Instead of giving the "stay the course" argument -- which they probably wanted me to do in order to rhetorically corner me and accuse me of being a closet Republican -- I expressed my deepest concern about the potential fallout in Northern Iraq.  Obviously that caught them off-guard.  Northern Iraq?  How can that be?  The media is not talking about it.  For some reason, the dialogue about the future of military operations in Iraq has been narrowly defined by whether we want our troops to be sitting ducks in the "Sunni Triangle".  If it was just about that, I would say, "Get out now."

But it isn't.  There is a whole other aspect to the Iraqi security situation that, until recently, the media has all but ignored.  If U.S. forces do not manage the Northern Iraqi border, the Turks will -- that is a big problem.  For generations the Turkish government has worried that Kurds in Iraq, Iran and Eastern Turkey will join together and form an independent Kurdistan.  Turkey has routinely engaged in disinformation campaigns to turn Kurdish factions against one another, delaying any political unification in that area.

The recent wave of Kurdish freedom in Northern Iraq following the ouster of Saddam Hussein is sparking a renewed call for an independent Kurdistan.  Last week, during a visit to Iraq, Condoleezza Rice assured Turkey that they would guard the border in Northern Iraq -- a response to Turkey's hint that they would intervene militarily.  The diciest part is the fact that if Turkey were to get involved militarily, we would have to side with them.  Turkey is a NATO ally, meaning we are bound by our treaty obligations to defend any such NATO nation, such as Turkey, whose sovereignty is being violated.

To make matters worse, Time Magazine reported just this morning that the Shiite militia is amassing in the north in order to prevent any sort of political defection from Iraq by the Kurds:

Iraq's Arab majority has long suspected that the Kurds want to break apart their country and take northern Iraq's rich oilfields with them, and that suspicion fueled recent reports that hundreds of Shi'ite Arab militiamen have moved into the northern city of Kirkuk.

What this all boils down to is a potential blood-bath, putting radical Shiites and the Turkish military against the Kurdish population, some of which are still on the Pentagon payroll.  Just yesterday, the rumor that many such as myself had feared became a reality: Turkey is indeed amassing troops on the Iraqi border right now in preparation for a possible assault using both ground and air forces.

With all this said, the U.S. faces two major political challenges:

1. Diplomatic negotiations with Turkey to keep them out of Iraq.
2. Countering the security threat of the Shiite militia, which easily surpasses the strength of the Iraqi military,  in Northern Iraqi towns.

This is also very significant because the Shiite militia is located in the south.  For them to have the troop strength to move all the way up into Northern Iraq says something about the lack of progress on the part of Iraqi security forces.

This Northern Iraq problem is the most significant issue that we may ever face in Iraq.  It's time for the Pentagon to employ both tactically-based military and diplomatic means to prevent an almost imminent border crisis in the north.