The Blue State

The Only Thing on the RUN Graham, is YOUR Mouth.

The main point of this post is all the lying coming from The Hill.

Graham: "The military part of the surge isworking beyond my expectations," Graham said. "We literally have theenemy on the run. The Sunni part of Iraq has really rejected al-Qaidaall over the country. We're getting more information about al-Qaidaoperations than we've ever received."

In response to Lindsey Graham's Troop Surge "WorkingBeyond my expectations" Before I get into the "meat and pataths",lets first take a quick peek at Graham's service to our country (I didn't say"Military Service" because as you will see it was ALWAYS aboutpolitics) 

Graham'sMilitary Service: Graham has served in the United States Air Force since1982, serving on active duty until 1988, and then in the South Carolina AirNational Guard and as an Air Force reservist. During the Gulf War, he wasrecalled to active duty, serving as a Judge Advocate at McIntire Air NationalGuard Station in Eastover, South Carolina, where he helped brief departingpilots on the laws of war. In 2004, Graham received a promotion to Colonel inthe U.S. Air Force Reserves at a White House ceremony officiated by PresidentGeorge W. Bush.

While in the Air Force Standby Reserve, Graham served as an appellate judgeon the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals. In September 2006 the United StatesCourt of Appeals for the Armed Forces ruled that it was a violation of theIncompatibility Clause of the Constitution, which states that "no Personholding any Office under the United States, shall be a Member of either Houseduring his Continuance in Office", for Graham to have been a judge on thecriminal appeals court.

I won't take away his service to our country, however I will take away anyknowledge of knowing what it's like crapping yourself in a combat zone when abullet whizzes by your Kevlar (helmet) or a roadside bomb goes off 20 feet awayfrom you . His military service reads like a campaign trail, and it does looklike he "knew someone".

Before I move on to the videos, here are acouple of articles that to "Flag Waving Right" (such as MelanieMorgan) would consider unpatriotic.

BreakingRanks: MIKE HOFFMAN would not be the guy his buddies would expect to seeleading a protest movement. The son of a steelworker and a high school janitorfrom Allentown, Pennsylvania, he enlisted in the Marine Corps in 1999 as anartilleryman to “blow things up.” His transformation into an activist camethe hard way—on the streets of Baghdad.

When Hoffman arrived in Kuwait in February 2003, his unit’s highest-rankingenlisted man laid out the mission in stark terms. “You’re not going to makeIraq safe for democracy,” the sergeant said. “You are going for one reasonalone: oil. But you’re still going to go, because you signed a contract. Andyou’re going to go to bring your friends home.” Hoffman, who had his owndoubts about the war, was relieved—he’d never expected to hear such a candidassessment from a superior. But it was only when he had been in Iraq for severalmonths that the full meaning of the sergeant’s words began to sink in. ReadOn...

Get ready to see some unpatriotic Americans that aren'tas smart as Graham

RetiredFirst Sergeant Perry Jefferies (Bio) Perry Jefferies is a representative forIraq and Afghanistan Veterans ofAmerica (IAVA). A non-partisan non-profit founded in 2004 with tens ofthousands of members in all 50 US states, IAVA is America’s first and largestIraq and Afghanistan Veterans group. Perry served as a First Sergeant with theArmy’s 4th Infantry Division in Iraq during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Afterdeploying to Iraq and traveling with the cavalry through the Sunni Triangle, hisunit moved to the Iran – Iraq border and set up Camp Caldwell, future home ofthe New Iraqi Army. Often frustrated by the absence of priority on planning andbasic Soldier needs, he has spoken out about the lack of basic necessities suchas food, water, and repair parts. Previously a prison guard in Texas, he saysthat in many cases, Soldiers are treated worse than the convicts he used toguard.

After enlisting in the Texas National Guard, he joined the Army and served inKorea, Germany, and the United States before deploying to Iraq. He has served ininfantry, armor, and cavalry units and was an instructor at the Armor School atFort Knox. He retired in 2004 and was awarded the Bronze Star and the Legion ofMerit. He is a member of the Order of Saint George for service to Armor andCavalry.

Perry Jefferies hails from Waco, Texas but settled in Copperas Cove, nearFort Hood, where he lives with his wife. He works for a large contractor withthe blood program at Fort Hood and rides motorcycles in his spare time

Countdown: Impeach Bush, Save the Troops? Part 1

Countdown: Impeach Bush, Save the Troops? Part 2

The faces of knowledge, service to our country and patriotism

When picking VP, candidates must evaluate their biggest weakness

Yes, I know -- it is certainly too early to start gossiping about possible vice presidential candidates.  Many think we should not even be discussing the presidential race at all until next fall.  Ever since January, I have received a couple dozen angry emails telling me just that.  With Barack Obama's latest visit to Virginia, where he mingled with a few politicians, most of which made it obvious they wanted to be his running mate, I have to at least bring this up.  When it comes to picking your running mate, you have to predict what your Republican opposition will say that you lack, and then pick that kind of person.

Let's try it with Hillary Clinton.  If she makes it to the general election, her campaign will be won or lost in the Midwest.  The GOP knows that.  They will brand her as being out of touch with Midwestern values.  So what better running mate to have than Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN)?  The two are great friends, and have worked together on a number of pro-family bills -- such as the ban on violent video games.  If Evan Bayh's name appears on a Hillary ticket, that might be enough to swing Ohio.

Here is another example.  Barack Obama will be attacked for his perceived lack of administrative experience.  By picking an effective executive like Mark Warner, who enjoyed a very high approval rating in the red state of Virginia, Obama can say that his administration will be ready and able to govern.

Next, John Edwards has some major weaknesses of his own.  Of them all, critics claim that Edwards is too polished and fake.  Therefore, the former North Carolina Senator would be smart to bring in a tough straight-shooter like Wesley Clark.  If not Clark, then maybe Senators Jim Webb (D-VA) or Jon Tester (D-MT).

How about Al Gore?  Pollsters have found that voters find him to be passionate, although too left-of-center on some issues.  If Gore was nominated, he should find a running mate that appeals to more middle-of-the-road voters, like Tom Vilsack, Bill Richardson or Harold Ford.

Whoever the nominee picks as their VP, it has to be someone that helps create a presidential ticket that is open tent friendly.  No Edwards-Kerry, Gore-Feingold or Richardson-Vilsack tickets.  In presidential politics, opposites attract when they run together because it diversifies the party's voting base.

Zogby Poll: Obama leads in NH

Today, Zogby International released a poll that was conducted among New Hampshire Democrats between January 15 - 17.  Barack Obama leads the field, with Clinton and Edwards close behind:

New Hampshire Poll
Barack Obama - 23%
Hillary Clinton - 19%
John Edwards - 19%
John Kerry - 5%
Wesley Clark - 3%
Joe Biden - 3%
Dennis Kucinich - 1%
Bill Richardson - 1%
Tom Vilsack - 1%
Not Sure - 22%

That poll is definitely not a surprise.  New Hampshire voters, no matter what party they are, like to vote for the Washington outsider.  Therefore, the fact that Clinton is currently behind is fairly reasonable.  Also, Edwards trails as well because he is more popular among South-to-Midwest Democrats.  In 2004, the only primary Edwards won was South Carolina.  He currently leads in Iowa, and has notably strong local support among hotel workers and community politicians in Nevada, the other early voting state.

Still, regardless of her Washington establishment status, Clinton must do better in New Hampshire if she has any shot of winning the nomination.  Putting it simply, the Democrats' primary schedule is not made for her.  She is more popular in the traditionally blue coastal states like New York, Connecticut and California -- none of which vote until later in the primary season.  New Hampshire went red in 2000, therefore cannot be included in that category.  Still, it is a northern state.  Voters in Iowa don't like her.  She might be perceived as 'too east coast' for Nevada.  The chances of her winning in South Carolina are even slimmer.  Clinton needs to make the top-two in Iowa and Nevada, and then win in New Hampshire -- keeping her alive for the bluer primary states that come later.

For Edwards, Iowa is really make or break.  He has been campaigning there since 2004, and knows the terrain better than anyone.  A victory there would give him the extra media buzz to possibly take Nevada just three days later.  No one thinks Edwards can win New Hampshire.  But if he finishes in the top-two, he will have put himself in great shape to win South Carolina, like he did in '04.  However, if Edwards cannot win Iowa, he will have a difficult time getting attention in the final days before the Nevada caucus.  And remember, the primary schedule is red-heavy in the beginning two weeks.  If after South Carolina he does not have more than two victories already, then you can kiss his chances good-bye.

As far as the other candidates go, they will need to find a way to take news time away from the big-three.  Joe Biden is suited to finish well in South Carolina.   He has a lot of support down there.  Bill Richardson, geographically speaking, could make a strong showing in Nevada.  Tom Vilsack will have to win Iowa, where he is Governor, in order to have any shot.  Lastly, if Kerry did run, it would be like watching a train-wreck.  He would have little shot in any state except for maybe New Hampshire.

Right now, Barack Obama definitely has the momentum.  Although, Hillary Clinton is expected to make an announcement either next week or the week after, which could shake things up a bit.

Clark tells British that not all U.S. citizens back Iraq war

This weekend, retired General Wesley Clark helped conduct damage control oversees.  In the UK newspaper The Independent, Clark wrote an op-ed that explained to British citizens that most Americans do not support President Bush's Iraq policy:

The recent congressional elections - which turned over control of bothhouses to the Democrats - were largely a referendum on President Bush,and much of the vote reflected public dissatisfaction with the war inIraq. Most Americans see the US effort as failing, and believe thatsome different course of action must be taken. Most favour withdrawingforces soon, if not immediately. The report of the Iraq Study Group iswidely seen as a formal confirmation of US failure in Iraq.

It is encouraging that Clark used the evidence of November 7th to prove to the Brits that most U.S. citizens do understand the damage that this war has caused.

Clark went on to add that increasing the U.S. troop size by 20,000 would do little to calm tensions, and at best force insurgents to redeploy and attack other areas instead.  The one-time presidential candidate explained why 20,000 more troops isn't a solution:

We've never had enough troops in Iraq - in Kosovo, we had 40,000 troopsfor a population of two million. For Iraq that ratio would call for atleast 500,000 troops, so adding 20,000 seems too little, too late,even, for Baghdad.

In related news, on January 15th Wesley Clark will have the honor of swearing in Ron Sparks as Alabama State Agricultural Commissioner.

Weekly '08 Roundup: Kucinich to run

Hillary says she will wait until the first part of January before making an announcement.  Obama will announce no later than mid-January.  Evan Bayh and Tom Vilsack are already in it.  But just when you thought that eleven possible Democratic candidates were enough, another individual threw his name into the hat yesterday.  U.S. Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) announced that he will run in 2008 because he believes his party has done a poor job challenging the President to get troops out of Iraq:

The liberal, anti-war Ohio congressman said he was inspired to runbecause he disagrees with the way some of his fellow Democrats arehandling the war, including approval of a proposal to spend $160billion more on the conflict.

"Democrats were swept into power on Nov. 7 because of widespreadvoter discontent with the war in Iraq," said Kucinich, 60. "Instead ofheeding those concerns and responding with a strong and immediatechange in policies and direction, the Democratic congressionalleadership seems inclined to continue funding the perpetuation of thewar."

His candidacy might have some initial appeal -- that is if he were running against Bush.  But when the reality sets in that George W. Bush is not running for reelection, progressive voters might be looking for a fresh face -- which is why Evan Bayh and Barack Obama could have a lot of appeal.

Speaking of Evan Bayh (D-IN), his recent New Hampshire visit was overlooked by the mainstream media because Obama gave a big speech there around the same time.  But that didn't stop Bayh from telling New Hampshire voters that his number top issues in 2008 will be global warming and energy independence.  He says those issues have bipartisan appeal.  The Indy Star reported on his trip:

"I'd begin with this energy issue, includingglobal warming, because it affects so many important things and becausethere's some common ground there," he said.

Bayhwas hosted by Democratic state senators from Keene and Cornish onSunday, after speaking at a reception in Manchester on Saturday night.

Bayhhas promoted himself as a moderate who can work with Republicans. Hesaid he expected the new Democratic majorities in Congress would makefederal funding for stem cell research one of its their top prioritieswhen it convenes in January.

Back to Obama's New Hampshire trip.  Salon.com reported that the "largest crowd in modern New Hampshire history" saw his speech on Sunday afternoon.

Without further adeiu, here are the weekly rankings for each of the Democratic hopefuls.  Dennis Kucinich's name has been added to the list, impacting some of the candidates (Remember, these are rankings based on a political science student's take on who has the best odds, as of now, of winning the Democratic nomination.  This is not who I want to win.  It is based on who I think has the upper hand on fundraising, appeal in the early primary states, a low unfavorable rating, and the best campaign team.).

1. Hillary Rodham-Clinton - 24%
2. Barack Obama - 19%
3. John Edwards - 15%
4. Al Gore - 14%
5. Evan Bayh - 8%
6. Wesley Clark - 7%
7. Bill Richardson - 4%
8. Tom Vilsack - 3%
9. Joe Biden - 2%
10. Dennis Kucinich - 2%
11. John Kerry - 1%
12. Chris Dodd - 1%

(last week's results)
Up a few points is Barack Obama.  I was waiting to see what type of a reception he got in New Hampshire.  Since the officials up there said it surpassed everything they had predicted, I am giving him an edge of four points on Edwards now, who seems to have hit a brick wall.  The former North Carolina Senator's media attention is way down.  The media is branding this as a match-up between Clinton and Obama.  If Gore gets in the race at the end of the summer, that may destroy any slim chance that Edwards might have.  For every day that Obama or Clinton spends in Iowa, Nevada or New Hampshire, John and Elizabeth will need to spend double the time campaigning in those places.  Unless either John or Elizabeth write another book soon, their media honeymoon might be over.

Also, if it weren't for the fact that there will be major hearings on Iraq in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when the Democrats take back Congress, then I would put Joe Biden at the very bottom of the list.  But those hearings will give him a lot of press coverage, since he is the Chairman of that committee.  Still, I see the likelihood of Biden getting nominated as less than Bill Richardson or Wesley Clark.

The '08 Democratic Nomination: Playing the odds

Who stands the best shot at winning the Democratic nomination?  This is the first in a series of weekly posts that will forecast the odds that each Democratic hopeful has in winning the nomination.

As the war in Iraq boils over and the Democratic Congress prepares to assume its leadership position in January, it is probably not a good idea to become too fixated on the 2008 race for president.  I don't plan to analyze this each day between now and next fall.  However, this winter is a time in which a lot of candidates will start making formal announcements.  In the coming weeks, I will pay close attention to who is thinking of joining the field.

As General Wesley Clark, a 2004 presidential candidate, said yesterday, he made a strategic error by getting into the race so late last time around.  When he joined the field in September of 2003, he hardly had any funds and did not even hire a campaign manager until November.  By that time, he only had two months until the Iowa Caucus.  From watching what happened to Clark in '03, candidates will want to get in early.  Setting up a presidential exploratory committee offers potential contenders a loophole in the federal elections law that allows them to raise cash without formally declaring their candidacy.  Since Hillary Clinton already raised tens of millions of dollars, hardly anyone will be able to compete with her unless they start setting up exploratory committees immediately.

Without further adieu, here are the odds for each of the possible Democratic contenders.  I base this on potential appeal in early battleground states, unfavorable rating, potential issues in late-'07 and early-'08, fundraising potential, and net-roots support.  This is more or less my analytical bias, and does not represent any bias for who I want the Democratic nominee to be (I am undecided, anyway!):

1. Hillary Clinton - 24% chance
2. John Edwards - 17% chance
3. Barack Obama - 16% chance
4. Al Gore - 15% chance
5. Evan Bayh - 7% chance
   
6. Bill Richardson - 5% chance
7. Joe Biden - 5% chance
8. Wesley Clark - 5% chance
9. Tom Vilsack - 3% chance
10. John Kerry - 2% chance
11. Chris Dodd - 1% chance

Keep in mind that these numbers will fluctuate over time, especially when some candidates from this list officially take their names out of the hat.

Every projection like this requires some kind of analysis.  Here is the way I see it.  Hillary Clinton is definitely in the lead right now, for the most part due to her significant money advantage that would help mobilize get out the vote efforts and travel in the early primary states (Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina).  What she has going against her is her vote for the war and her unpopularity among Democratic activists.

That brings us to the race to become what I call the "anti-Hillary" candidate.  As of this moment, there is a log-jam between Barack Obama, John Edwards and Al Gore.  Voters who want an alternative besides Hillary Clinton will likely choose between these three candidates.  John Edwards is very popular in the labor movement, who are more likely to choose a Washington outsider that has stood against free trade agreements like NAFTA and CAFTA.  Al Gore is also a serious threat to Hillary Clinton's nomination, and has a strong following in the Northeast and out West.  It still remains to be seen whether Gore's green themes will catch on in Nevada, Iowa and South Carolina.  However, being that New Hampshire is in the Northeast, and being that the state has historically respected independent-minded, maverick candidates, Al Gore might even be the odds on favorite there.  Then there is the wild card: Barack Obama.  The Illinois Senator is also a threat to Hillary Clinton because he will grab a significant portion of the female vote.  Already pledging to announce his candidacy on the Oprah Winfrey show, should he decide to enter the race, Obama might cut Hillary's female voting base by a third.  Out of the three -- Gore, Edwards and Obama -- Edwards has a slight advantage because of his popularity among local politicians in Iowa and Nevada.  Edwards travels to both places more than any other presidential hopeful in both parties.  In January of 2004, the Des Moines Register newspaper endorsed him.  Over the last half year, Edwards has campaigned with hotel unions in Las Vegas.  The Edwards strategy appears center around winning Iowa and Nevada by getting the support of labor unions, while conceding New Hampshire and then going after South Carolina, which he won in 2004.

When you move down the list, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Joe Biden, and Senator Evan Bayh are still within striking distance.  They don't have a lot of name recognition, especially Evan Bayh.  But of the three, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh definitely has the advantage.  By next fall, those who have never heard of him today will learn to appreciate him as a very positive, consensus-building leader.  As an opponent of gay marriage and flag burning, it would be difficult for the Republicans to attack Bayh in the general election.  However, his biggest obstacle might come from the NRA, which has consistently opposed his strong gun control stances.  He voted for the Iraq war and against partial birth abortion.  However, he did vote against a repeal of the estate tax, in support of investigating the no-bid contracts in Iraq, and yes on a bill that would have reduced our dependence on foreign oil (had it passed).  He is very much an environmentalist, but conservative on social issues.  Bill Richardson and Joe Biden both have foreign policy credentials.  It is highly probable that they would be considered as a vice presidential pick.

As far as the remaining candidates are concerned, here is all that needs to be said.  John Kerry would be committing political suicide by running again, especially after his botched joke.  Chris Dodd lacks publicity.  However, if the Connecticut Senator can pass his bill that would repeal the Military Commissions Act, then he will have helped himself.  Tom Vilsack has declared his intention to run.  Keep in mind though that Vilsack is not even catching on in his home state of Iowa, which still seems to be split between Edwards and Clinton.  Wesley Clark lacks both attention and money, therefore he would be wise to enter the race ASAP.

Again, I am going to try and make this a weekly thing.  If it catches on, great.  If not, then I will find some other way of critiquing the field.

2008 roundup: Biden takes Edwards seriously

Once every few weeks I will run through the most note-worthy political news regarding the 2008 race.  With the midterms just more than two months away, we have every reason to be almost entirely focused on the fate of the Legislative Branch.  But every now and then, I will preview the 2008 Democratic primary race, which is still wide open.

Here is the latest from the campaign trail:

• One year ago, Senator Joe Biden (D-Delaware) said that he would test the waters to for a possible presidential run.  As of this moment, it appears as though he will definitely run.  He spent the last couple of weeks in Iowa.  This weekend he is in South Carolina, a state where John Edwards is favored.  In an AP article that covered Biden's South Carolina trip, the Senator from Delaware was quoted saying that Edwards is a goner if he doesn't win that state.  "If John loses South Carolina, he's done," Biden said.  However, Biden was not trash-talking.  In fact, he has a great deal of respect for Edwards.  Biden said that "John is a real player" and he does "take John real seriously."  According to a different article one week ago, Biden said that he and his family had a talk around Christmas of 2004, and they all signed on to the commitment.  The last time Joe Biden ran for president was in 1988.
• Mark Warner spent last weekend in New Hampshire getting an early start on the campaigning.  Yesterday that trip paid off as The Daily Press, a Virginia newspaper, touted his pledge to campaign in New Hampshire if the state decides to defy the DNC and move its primary to an earlier date.
• Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a Republican, is considering the idea of running for president in 2008.  But an Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock poll finds that Arkansans would favor both Hillary Clinton and Wesley Clark over Huckabee.  Clinton got the better of Huckabee by a 49% to 36% margin.  Wesley Clark received even better numbers, beating Huckabee 51% to 37%.
• Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold is scheduled to address the Chicago Bar on Monday.
• The Daily Nation, a Kenyan newspaper, is fantasizing about Hillary Clinton possibly choosing Barack Obama as her running mate.
• According to Sunday's Washington Post, Evan Bayh is strengthening ties with New Hampshire Governor John Lynch and Iowa Gubernatorial candidate Chet Culver.  "Bayh's fundraising gambit is the latest evidence of his innovativeapproach to courting the activists essential to the 2008 nominatingprocess," the newspaper wrote for Sunday.

More 2008 campaign news in a few weeks, or when a major story breaks.

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Other sites blogging about 2008: Think South, Quigley, The Huffington Post, Jiblog, Orblogs, The Pamphleteer, The Gun Toting Liberal, Blue Grassroots, Democrats in the South, Blue Grass Report, Crimes and Corruptions of the New World, Western Democrat.